AMD

AMD

$557.89

+2.04%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) designs digital semiconductors for PCs, gaming consoles, data centers (including AI), industrial, and automotive markets. It is a leading challenger to Nvidia in AI GPUs and a dominant supplier of chips for gaming consoles like Sony PlayStation and Microsoft Xbox. The current investor narrative centers on AMD's rapid AI GPU adoption and data center growth, with recent news highlighting supply-chain signals and analyst upgrades, though concerns about valuation and competition from Nvidia and custom chips persist.

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AMD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $557.89
Average Target $557.89
High Target $641.57
Low Target $474.21

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AMD's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $725.26 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$725.26

16 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

16

covering this stock

Price Range

$446 - $725

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (25%)
Hold
8 (50%)
Sell
4 (25%)

AMD is covered by 16 analysts. The consensus recommendation is not explicitly provided, but the average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $29.92, with a range of $23.96 to $36.82. The average revenue estimate is $171.4 billion, implying significant growth. Based on the forward P/E of 42.0x and current price of $557.89, the implied average price target is approximately $1,256 (42.0x * $29.92), representing +125% upside. However, this is a rough calculation; actual analyst targets may vary. Recent ratings from firms like Goldman Sachs (Neutral, target $640) and Benchmark (Buy) suggest a mixed but generally bullish sentiment. The high EPS estimate of $36.82 implies a target of ~$1,546, while the low estimate of $23.96 implies ~$1,006. The wide spread (53.7% difference between high and low) indicates high uncertainty about AMD's future earnings trajectory. Recent upgrades (e.g., Goldman Sachs raising target to $640) and the lack of downgrades suggest analysts are cautiously optimistic, but the wide range reflects the risk of execution in the competitive AI chip market.

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AMD Technical Analysis

AMD is in a powerful sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +287.0% and the current price of $557.89 trading at 95.4% of its 52-week range ($141.60–$584.73). This positioning near the highs indicates strong momentum but also potential overextension, as the stock has rallied over 290% from its 52-week low. Short-term momentum is accelerating: the 1-month change is +23.3% and the 3-month change is +127.7%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 1-month and 3-month gains of 4.1% and 11.1%, respectively. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the rapid price appreciation suggests bullish sentiment, though the 1-month change of +23.3% versus the 1-year change of +287.0% indicates that while momentum is strong, the pace may be decelerating relative to the longer-term trend. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $141.60, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $584.73. A breakout above $584.73 would signal continued upside toward new highs, while a breakdown below recent support levels (e.g., $516) could indicate a pullback. With a beta of 2.469, AMD is 146.9% more volatile than the S&P 500, meaning it amplifies market moves—a critical factor for position sizing and risk management.

Beta

2.47

2.47x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-27.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$142-$585

Price range past year

Annual Return

+287.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAMD ReturnS&P 500
1m+23.3%+1.8%
3m+127.7%+10.0%
6m+174.6%+8.8%
1y+287.0%+21.1%
ytd+149.6%+10.7%

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AMD Fundamental Analysis

AMD's revenue trajectory is accelerating strongly. The most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reported revenue of $10.27 billion, up 34.1% year-over-year, compared to $7.66 billion in Q4 2024. Over the past four quarters, revenue has grown from $7.44 billion (Q1 2025) to $10.27 billion, with the Data Center segment contributing $5.38 billion (52.4% of total), while Client and Gaming added $3.94 billion and Embedded $0.95 billion. This growth is driven by AI GPU demand, with data center revenue surging. Profitability is improving: net income for Q4 2025 was $1.511 billion, up from $0.482 billion in Q4 2024, and gross margin expanded to 54.3% from 50.7% a year ago. Operating margin rose to 17.1% from 11.4%, indicating operating leverage. However, the trailing twelve-month net margin is 12.5%, and the company has a history of volatile profitability—Q2 2025 had a negative operating income of -$134 million. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is just 0.071, and the current ratio is 2.85, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $2.378 billion, and trailing twelve-month FCF is $6.735 billion, providing strong internal funding for growth. ROE is 6.9%, reflecting moderate returns on equity.

Quarterly Revenue

$10.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+34.11%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

54.30%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$6.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Client and Gaming
Data Center
Embedded

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Valuation Analysis: Is AMD Overvalued?

Since net income is positive (TTM net income of ~$4.3 billion), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 80.5x, while the forward P/E is 42.0x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a 47.8% expected earnings increase, reflecting optimism around AI-driven expansion. Compared to the semiconductor industry average (not provided), AMD's forward P/E of 42.0x is likely at a premium given its high growth. The PEG ratio is 0.49, which suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate (PEG < 1). Historically, AMD's trailing P/E has ranged from ~34x (Q3 2021) to over 1,700x (Q2 2023) during periods of low earnings. The current trailing P/E of 80.5x is above the median of recent years (e.g., 57.98x in Q4 2025), indicating the market is pricing in optimistic future earnings. The price-to-sales ratio of 10.08x is also elevated versus historical levels (e.g., 34.12x in Q4 2025, but that was on lower revenue), reflecting the premium for revenue growth.

PE

80.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -284x~1700x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

47.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple