MU

Micron Technology

$937.00

-4.32%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Micron Technology is one of the world's largest semiconductor companies, specializing in memory and storage chips, primarily DRAM and NAND flash, serving data centers, mobile, consumer, industrial, and automotive markets. As a vertically integrated memory leader, it competes directly with Samsung and SK Hynix, and its distinct position as the only U.S.-based DRAM manufacturer gives it strategic importance in the AI supply chain. The current investor narrative centers on Micron's massive $250 billion investment in U.S. DRAM and HBM production to capture the AI memory supercycle, with record data center gross margins of 87% highlighting pricing power, though concerns about cyclicality and near-term volatility persist.

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MU 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $937.00
Average Target $937.00
High Target $1077.55
Low Target $796.45

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Micron Technology's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1218.10 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1218.10

20 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

20

covering this stock

Price Range

$750 - $1218

Analyst target range

Buy
6 (30%)
Hold
10 (50%)
Sell
4 (20%)

Micron is covered by 20 analysts, with a consensus leaning strongly bullish: all recent ratings from major firms (RBC Capital, Wells Fargo, Rosenblatt, TD Cowen, Deutsche Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, Barclays, Needham, UBS, B of A Securities) are Buy or Overweight, with no Hold or Sell ratings in the latest updates. The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $264.67, with a low of $163.11 and high of $337.09, implying significant earnings power. The average revenue estimate is $449.4 billion, with a range of $316.8 billion to $544.0 billion. While explicit price targets are not provided, the consensus recommendation is a Strong Buy, and the implied upside based on the forward P/E of 6.5x versus the trailing 15.9x suggests the market expects substantial earnings growth to justify the current price. The high EPS estimate of $337.09 implies a forward P/E of just 2.9x at the current price, which would be extremely cheap if realized, while the low estimate of $163.11 implies a forward P/E of 6.0x. The wide spread in estimates (more than 2x from low to high) indicates high uncertainty about the sustainability of the current earnings cycle. The recent analyst actions all reaffirm Buy ratings, with no downgrades, signaling continued confidence in the AI-driven growth story.

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MU Technical Analysis

Micron is in a powerful long-term uptrend, with the stock surging 695.5% over the past year. The current price of $979.30 sits at 78% of its 52-week range ($103.38–$1,255), indicating the stock is still well off its highs but firmly in the upper half of the range, suggesting a consolidation phase after a massive rally. The 1-year relative strength of 674.8% versus the S&P 500 underscores extreme outperformance, though the pullback from the $1,255 peak signals profit-taking and potential resistance. Short-term momentum is mixed: the 1-month change is +9.8%, showing a bounce from the June lows, while the 3-month change of +132.8% reflects the explosive May–June rally. However, the 1-month gain is decelerating from the 3-month pace, and the stock has corrected ~22% from its all-time high of $1,255, suggesting a potential short-term downtrend within the larger uptrend. The beta of 2.142 indicates the stock is more than twice as volatile as the S&P 500, amplifying both gains and losses. Key support lies near the 52-week low of $103.38, but more immediate support is around $864 (the June 5 low) and $938 (the July 7 low). Resistance is at the 52-week high of $1,255; a breakout above that level would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $864 could trigger further selling toward $800. The elevated beta means position sizing should account for potential 2%+ daily swings.

Beta

2.14

2.14x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-30.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$103-$1255

Price range past year

Annual Return

+652.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMU ReturnS&P 500
1m-4.5%+1.0%
3m+101.2%+7.9%
6m+181.1%+8.5%
1y+652.4%+20.1%
ytd+197.1%+9.9%

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MU Fundamental Analysis

Micron's revenue trajectory is accelerating dramatically, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ended Feb 2026) reporting revenue of $23.86 billion, up 196.3% year-over-year from $8.05 billion in the prior-year quarter. This marks a sharp acceleration from the 18.2% YoY growth in Q4 FY2025 and the 6.9% growth in Q3 FY2025, driven by explosive demand for AI-related memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data center DRAM. Revenue segments show DRAM products contributed $18.77 billion (78.7% of total) and NAND $5.0 billion (21.0%), with DRAM growth outpacing NAND. The company is profitable with net income of $13.79 billion in Q2 FY2026, compared to $1.58 billion a year ago, a 773% increase. Gross margin expanded to 74.4% from 36.8% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting a massive pricing power shift, with data center gross margins reportedly hitting 87%. Operating margin surged to 67.6% from 22.0%, and net margin reached 57.8% from 19.7%, indicating strong operating leverage. The balance sheet is robust: debt-to-equity is a low 0.28, and the current ratio of 2.52 suggests ample liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) is $22.06 billion, with Q2 FY2026 free cash flow of $17.29 billion, providing significant internal funding for the $250 billion expansion plan. ROE stands at 15.8%, and the company generated $11.9 billion in operating cash flow in Q2 alone, underscoring strong cash generation.

Quarterly Revenue

$23.9B

2026-02

Revenue YoY Growth

+196.29%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

74.39%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$22.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

DRAM Products
NAND Products

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Valuation Analysis: Is MU Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($13.79 billion), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 15.9x, while the forward P/E is 6.5x, implying the market expects earnings to more than double over the next year. This gap suggests aggressive growth expectations are already priced in, but the forward multiple is still low relative to historical levels. Compared to the semiconductor industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on industry data), Micron's trailing P/E of 15.9x represents a 28% discount, while the forward P/E of 6.5x is a 70% discount, indicating the market is pricing in a potential cyclical downturn despite current momentum. Historically, Micron's trailing P/E has ranged from 7x to 105x over the past three years. The current 15.9x is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is not overvalued by historical standards, but the low multiple also reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of peak-cycle earnings. The PEG ratio of 0.016 (based on forward earnings growth) implies the stock is deeply undervalued relative to growth, but this metric should be treated with caution given the cyclical nature of memory.

PE

15.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -78x~105x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

7.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple