AME

Ametek

$221.28

-1.94%
May 19, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Ametek, Inc. is a diversified industrial manufacturer operating through two primary segments: the Electronic Instruments Group (EIG), which provides analytical, test, and measurement instruments, and the Electromechanical Group (EMG), which produces highly engineered components, interconnects, and specialty metals. The company is a market leader in numerous niche industrial markets, distinguished by its decentralized operating model of over 40 autonomous businesses and a long-term strategy of growth through strategic acquisitions. The current investor narrative is focused on the company's demonstrated financial strength, as evidenced by a recent 10% dividend increase, and its ability to deliver consistent organic growth and margin expansion despite broader economic uncertainties, positioning it as a high-quality, defensive industrial name.

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AME 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $221.28
Average Target $221.28
High Target $254.47199999999998
Low Target $188.088

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ametek's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $287.66 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$287.66

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$177 - $288

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Ametek is covered by 7 analysts, and the institutional sentiment is predominantly neutral to positive, with recent actions including reiterations of 'Equal Weight' (Morgan Stanley, Barclays), 'Outperform' (BMO Capital), and 'Buy' (DA Davidson). The consensus recommendation leans neutral with a bullish tilt, reflecting confidence in the company's execution but also acknowledging its rich valuation. The average target price implied by the estimated EPS of $9.91 and the forward PE of 25.86x is approximately $256, suggesting a potential upside of over 12% from the current price of $227.90. The target range, derived from estimated EPS, spans from a low of $9.62 to a high of $10.29. The high-end target assumes successful execution on growth initiatives, margin preservation, and perhaps multiple expansion, while the low-end likely factors in potential economic slowdowns or margin pressures. The relatively tight range between the low and high EPS estimates indicates a strong degree of analyst conviction in the company's near-term earnings trajectory. The pattern of recent ratings shows stability, with no downgrades in the provided data and one shift from Outperform to Perform by Oppenheimer, which may reflect valuation concerns rather than fundamental deterioration.

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Bulls vs Bears: AME Investment Factors

The bull case for Ametek is strongly supported by its exceptional fundamentals: industry-leading profitability, robust revenue growth, and a rock-solid financial foundation. These qualities justify its status as a high-quality, defensive industrial name. However, the bear case centers squarely on valuation risk, with the stock trading at premium multiples that leave little room for operational missteps or a deterioration in the macroeconomic environment. Currently, the bullish evidence from the company's operational excellence is stronger, but the single most important tension in the investment debate is whether Ametek's superior execution can consistently outpace the high growth expectations already embedded in its rich valuation. The resolution of this tension—specifically, the company's ability to meet or exceed the $9.91 EPS forecast—will be the primary driver of stock performance over the next 12 months.

Bullish

  • Exceptional Profitability & Margin Strength: Ametek's Q4 2025 operating margin of 26.17% and net margin of 19.95% are exceptionally high for an industrial company, reflecting its premium market positioning and operational efficiency. This consistent high-margin profile, with a TTM operating margin of 26.15%, provides a significant buffer against cost pressures and underpins strong cash generation.
  • Robust Revenue Growth Trajectory: The company delivered 13.44% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2025, reaching $1.998 billion, with sequential growth from $1.732 billion in Q1. This demonstrates strong underlying demand across its diversified end markets, including aerospace and healthcare, and validates its growth-through-acquisition model.
  • Strong Financial Health & Cash Flow: Ametek boasts a fortress balance sheet with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 and generated $1.67 billion in TTM free cash flow. This financial strength funds strategic acquisitions, supports a recent 10% dividend increase, and provides resilience during economic downturns.
  • Analyst Confidence & Upside Potential: The consensus analyst EPS estimate of $9.91, combined with a forward P/E of 25.86x, implies a target price of approximately $256, representing a 12% upside from the current $227.90. The tight range between low ($9.62) and high ($10.29) EPS estimates indicates strong conviction in near-term earnings.

Bearish

  • Premium Valuation Leaves Little Margin for Error: Trading at a trailing P/E of 31.97x and a forward P/E of 25.86x, Ametek's valuation is at the high end of its historical range and commands a significant premium to typical industrial peers (e.g., EV/EBITDA of 26.14x). This full pricing requires flawless execution and sustained high growth to justify, increasing downside risk if expectations are not met.
  • Recent Relative Weakness & Consolidation: Despite a strong 6-month gain of +17.86%, the stock has shown recent weakness with a -0.96% 1-month change and a -6.56% relative strength versus the S&P 500 over the same period. This divergence suggests profit-taking or consolidation, indicating potential near-term headwinds or valuation concerns among investors.
  • Economic Sensitivity & Market-Correlated Volatility: With a beta of 1.03, Ametek's stock moves closely with the broader market. In a risk-off environment or economic slowdown, its premium valuation could compress significantly, as evidenced by the recent 13.7% drawdown from its February peak. Its industrial end markets, while diversified, are not immune to macro cycles.
  • High Growth Expectations Embedded in Price: The forward P/E of 25.86x is predicated on analysts' forecasted EPS growth to $9.91 from a recent quarterly run-rate of ~$6.96. Any deceleration in organic growth, margin pressure, or a slowdown in the pace of accretive acquisitions could trigger multiple contraction and derail the bullish thesis.

AME Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained long-term uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +26.46%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +25.19% gain over the same period. As of the latest close at $227.90, the price is positioned approximately 72% of the way up from its 52-week low of $174.43 towards its high of $243.18, indicating a strong bullish momentum but leaving room for further appreciation before testing all-time highs. However, the stock has recently experienced a short-term pullback, with a 1-month price change of -0.96% and a 3-month change of -0.81%, which contrasts with the strong 6-month gain of +17.86%. This divergence suggests a period of consolidation or profit-taking after the sharp rally, with the stock showing relative weakness against the market, as indicated by a -6.56% 1-month relative strength versus the S&P 500. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $174.43, while immediate overhead resistance sits at the 52-week high of $243.18. A decisive breakout above $243.18 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend and likely target new highs, whereas a breakdown below the recent March low near $209.37 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock exhibits market-like volatility with a beta of 1.03, implying its price movements are generally in line with the broader market, which is a consideration for investors seeking a stable industrial holding within a diversified portfolio. The stock's recent price action shows it recovered from a significant drawdown in March, where it fell over 13% from its February peak, but has since stabilized in a higher trading range between $230 and $240. The average daily volume of approximately 1.03 million shares suggests adequate liquidity for institutional participation. The current positioning, coupled with the stock's resilience above key moving averages, supports a constructive technical outlook barring a breach of the established support zone.

Beta

1.03

1.03x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-13.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$174-$243

Price range past year

Annual Return

+21.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAME ReturnS&P 500
1m-6.3%+3.3%
3m-5.6%+6.9%
6m+16.5%+12.4%
1y+21.7%+23.4%
ytd+5.8%+7.6%

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AME Fundamental Analysis

Ametek's revenue trajectory remains robust, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $1.998 billion, representing a 13.44% year-over-year growth. This growth is being driven by both segments, with the Electronic Instruments Group (EIG) contributing $1.370 billion and the Electromechanical Group (EMG) contributing $629 million in the latest period. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent top-line expansion, with revenue increasing sequentially from $1.732 billion in Q1 2025 to the current level, indicating strong underlying demand across its diversified end markets, including aerospace, energy, and healthcare. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $398.6 million and a net margin of 19.95%. Gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 36.93%, while the operating margin stood at 26.17%. Margins have remained stable and at elevated levels, reflecting the company's premium positioning and operational efficiency; for instance, the trailing twelve-month operating margin is 26.15% according to valuation data. This consistent, high-margin profile is a hallmark of Ametek's business model and a key differentiator within the industrial sector. Ametek's balance sheet is strong, with a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.21 and a current ratio of 1.06, indicating sufficient short-term liquidity. The company generates substantial cash, with free cash flow over the trailing twelve months of $1.67 billion, providing ample internal funding for growth initiatives, dividends, and share repurchases. Return on equity (ROE) is a solid 13.93%, and return on assets (ROA) is 8.01%, demonstrating efficient use of capital. The strong free cash flow generation, coupled with a modest debt load, underscores the company's financial health and ability to navigate economic cycles while returning capital to shareholders.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.13%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.36%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Electromechanical Group
Electronic Instruments Group

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Valuation Analysis: Is AME Overvalued?

Given Ametek's substantial net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 31.97x and a forward PE of 25.86x based on analyst estimates. The forward PE being lower than the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings growth, with analysts forecasting an average EPS of $9.91 for the coming period, up from the recent quarterly EPS of $1.74 (annualized run-rate of ~$6.96). Compared to sector averages (implied by the provided data but not explicitly stated), Ametek's valuation multiples appear elevated. For instance, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 6.39x and EV/EBITDA of 26.14x are typically at a premium to broader industrial peers. This premium is likely justified by the company's superior and consistent profitability metrics, such as its net margin of 20.0% and operating margin of 26.2%, which are well above typical industrial machinery company averages, alongside its high-return, acquisition-driven growth model. Historically, Ametek's current trailing PE of 31.97x is above its own recent historical range observed over the past several quarters, which has generally fluctuated between the high-20s and low-30s (e.g., 29.56x at end of Q4 2025, 28.22x at end of Q1 2025). Trading near the upper end of its historical band suggests the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for sustained growth and margin performance. Investors are thus paying a full price for quality, leaving less margin for error should execution falter or the macroeconomic environment deteriorate.

PE

32.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 22x~34x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

26.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: Ametek's primary financial risk is not leverage or liquidity—its debt-to-equity of 0.21 and current ratio of 1.06 are conservative—but rather its dependence on sustaining high growth to justify its premium valuation. With a trailing P/E of 31.97x, even a modest earnings miss or guidance reduction could trigger significant multiple compression. Furthermore, while margins are currently stellar at a 26.2% operating margin, any erosion due to input cost inflation or competitive pressures would directly impact the high-margin narrative that supports its valuation premium.

Market & Competitive Risks: The most salient market risk is valuation compression. Ametek trades at a significant premium to broader industrials, as evidenced by its Price-to-Sales ratio of 6.39x and EV/EBITDA of 26.14x. In a rising interest rate environment or a sector rotation out of quality/growth names, these multiples could revert toward historical or sector averages. Its beta of 1.03 confirms it is not a defensive safe haven and will correlate with market downturns. Competitively, while it operates in niche markets, its acquisition-driven model requires a continuous pipeline of reasonably priced targets, which could dry up in a competitive M&A landscape.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of an economic slowdown reducing demand in its key aerospace and industrial end markets, coupled with a miss on quarterly earnings that reveals margin pressure. This could trigger a cascade of analyst downgrades and a rapid de-rating of its P/E multiple from 32x toward 25x or lower. The stock could realistically fall to retest its 52-week low of $174.43, which would represent a downside of approximately -23% from the current price of $227.90. The March 2026 drawdown of -13.7% from the peak provides a recent precedent for such volatility.