Amprius Technologies, Inc.
AMPX
$20.66
-4.92%
Amprius Technologies, Inc. is a developer and manufacturer of high-energy-density lithium-ion batteries utilizing proprietary silicon anode technology, operating within the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry. The company positions itself as a technology disruptor, offering a direct drop-in replacement for graphite anodes that promises superior energy density for mobility applications, including aviation, electric vehicles, and drones. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's commercial ramp-up and validation of its technology, as evidenced by recent analyst coverage and news highlighting record trading volume as a signal of strong fundamentals and significant near-term upside potential, reflecting a high-growth, pre-profitability story in the advanced battery sector.…
AMPX
Amprius Technologies, Inc.
$20.66
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy AMPX Today?
Rating: Hold. The core thesis is that while AMPX demonstrates compelling fundamental improvement and disruptive potential, its extreme valuation and high volatility make the risk/reward unattractive for new capital at current levels, favoring waiting for a better entry point or clearer evidence of sustained execution. Supporting Evidence: The stock's valuation is rich at a PS of 13.5x and EV/S of 35.2x, pricing in analyst revenue estimates of $967M that are nearly 10x current levels. While revenue growth is accelerating at 137% YoY and gross margins have turned positive at 23.7%, the company remains deeply unprofitable with a -60.3% net margin. Analyst sentiment is unanimously bullish, but with only 2 formal estimates, consensus is thin. The stock's 772% 1-year gain and beta of 2.22 indicate it is a high-momentum, high-risk instrument. Risks & Conditions: The two biggest risks are a growth deceleration that invalidates the $967M revenue narrative and a broad market sell-off that crushes high-multiple, unprofitable growth stocks. This Hold rating would upgrade to a Buy if the stock corrects 20-30% into the $13-$15 range, providing a better margin of safety, or if the company reports consecutive quarters of revenue exceeding $30M with sustained gross margins above 25%. It would downgrade to a Sell if quarterly revenue growth decelerates below 50% YoY or if gross margins retreat back into negative territory. The stock is overvalued relative to any traditional metric but may be fairly valued only if the transformative growth story materializes perfectly.
Sign up to view all
AMPX 12-Month Price Forecast
AMPX is a classic high-risk, high-potential story where the fundamentals are improving dramatically but from a very low base, while the valuation already reflects a heroic success scenario. The neutral stance reflects the balance between these powerful opposing forces. The recent consolidation after a massive rally suggests the market is pausing to assess whether the growth can continue. The stance would upgrade to bullish on evidence of sustained margin expansion and revenue acceleration above $30M per quarter. It would turn bearish on any sign of growth plateauing or margin pressure. Investors should be prepared for extreme volatility (beta 2.22) regardless of the direction.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Amprius Technologies, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $26.86 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$26.86
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $27
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for AMPX appears limited but bullish, with only 2 analysts providing estimates according to the data, though the institutional ratings list shows recent 'Buy' or 'Overweight' actions from at least 6 different firms in March 2026 alone. The consensus sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with all recent actions being initiations or reiterations of Buy-equivalent ratings. The average revenue estimate for the period is $967.34 million, which represents a monumental leap from current quarterly run-rates, indicating analysts expect a transformative scale-up. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the pattern of institutional actions signals high conviction in the near term. The wide discrepancy between the current financials and analyst revenue estimates ($967M vs. ~$100M annualized) points to an extremely wide range of potential outcomes, which is characteristic of an early-stage, high-growth company. The recent cluster of analyst actions in early March 2026, coinciding with the stock's price peak and high-volume news, suggests institutional validation of the company's progress and may have provided a catalyst for the rally. The lack of a defined target range in the data, coupled with the minimal number of formal estimates, underscores that while sentiment is bullish, precise valuation remains highly speculative and dependent on the successful execution of the growth plan.
Bulls vs Bears: AMPX Investment Factors
The bull case, driven by explosive 137% revenue growth, dramatic gross margin improvement to 23.7%, and strong analyst conviction for a 10x revenue scale-up, currently holds stronger evidence due to tangible fundamental progress. However, the bear case, anchored by extreme valuation multiples (PS 13.5x, EV/S 35.2x), deep unprofitability, and high volatility (beta 2.22), presents substantial risk. The single most important tension in the investment debate is the chasm between the company's current ~$100M annualized revenue run-rate and the ~$967M analyst expectations priced into the stock. The resolution of this gap—through either successful execution or a growth disappointment—will overwhelmingly determine the stock's direction.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue of $25.2 million grew 137.4% YoY, demonstrating successful commercial scaling from a minimal base. The quarterly progression from $11.3M in Q1 to $25.2M in Q4 shows a steep upward trajectory, validating market demand for its silicon anode technology.
- Dramatic Gross Margin Improvement: Gross margin turned sharply positive to 23.65% in Q4 2025, a massive recovery from negative margins in 2024 and early 2025. This indicates the company is moving past initial production challenges and beginning to realize economies of scale, a critical step towards profitability.
- Strong Analyst Conviction & Growth Expectations: Analyst revenue estimates average $967.3 million, implying a monumental scale-up from current levels. Recent institutional actions in March 2026 were unanimously 'Buy' or 'Overweight', providing validation and a catalyst for the recent rally.
- Robust Balance Sheet & Liquidity: The company holds $90.5 million in cash with a strong current ratio of 7.08 and a manageable debt-to-equity of 0.38. This provides a substantial runway to fund growth and losses without immediate dilution or debt risk.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation Multiples: The stock trades at a trailing PS ratio of 13.5x and an EV/Sales of 35.2x, exceptionally high for its sector. This premium valuation implies near-perfect commercial execution is already priced in, leaving little room for error.
- Deep Unprofitability & Cash Burn: The company reported a Q4 net loss of $24.4 million and a TTM free cash flow of -$35.5 million. With a net margin of -60.3% and negative ROE of -42.4%, profitability remains a distant prospect despite improving gross margins.
- High Volatility & Technical Overextension: With a beta of 2.22, the stock is more than twice as volatile as the market. Trading near its 52-week high after a 772% run, it is vulnerable to a sharp pullback, as evidenced by the recent 1-month decline of -1.2% and consolidation.
- Speculative Growth Dependency: The investment thesis is entirely dependent on achieving analyst revenue estimates of ~$967M, a 10x+ increase from current run-rates. Any stumble in the commercial ramp-up, technology validation, or customer adoption would severely damage the valuation.
AMPX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 1-year price change of +772.43% and a YTD gain of +113.62% as of the latest data. With a current price of $18.67, the stock is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 94% of the way from its 52-week low of $1.97 to its high of $19.76, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension and vulnerability to a pullback. Recent momentum shows a fascinating divergence: while the 3-month change is a robust +69.73%, the 1-month performance is slightly negative at -1.22%, suggesting the explosive rally from March may be undergoing a period of consolidation or profit-taking after the stock more than doubled from its February lows. The stock's beta of 2.224 indicates it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, which is critical for risk assessment. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $1.97, though more relevant near-term support lies around the $14-$16 zone where the recent consolidation began. Immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $19.76; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the powerful uptrend, while a failure and reversal could lead to a test of lower support levels. The significant volatility, combined with a short ratio of 1.69, suggests the potential for sharp moves in either direction. The price action from the provided 180-day data illustrates this volatility perfectly: after a steep decline from October 2025 into late December, where the stock fell from over $13 to below $8, it embarked on a dramatic recovery, surging from under $8 in late December to nearly $19.40 by mid-March 2026. The subsequent trading has been choppy between approximately $14.70 and $19.13, forming a consolidation pattern. The stock's relative strength versus the SPY is extreme, with a 1-year relative strength of +737.53%, though it has weakened recently with a 1-month relative strength of -8.58%, confirming the short-term underperformance noted.
Beta
2.22
2.22x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-46.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2-$23
Price range past year
Annual Return
+729.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | AMPX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +15.2% | +8.7% |
| 3m | +85.0% | +3.6% |
| 6m | +60.3% | +5.4% |
| 1y | +729.7% | +30.6% |
| ytd | +136.4% | +4.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
AMPX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is accelerating dramatically, with Q4 2025 revenue of $25.234 million representing a year-over-year increase of 137.4%. Examining the quarterly progression from Q1 2025 ($11.284 million) to Q4 2025 ($25.234 million) shows a clear and steep upward trajectory, indicating successful commercial scaling. This growth is the core of the bullish investment thesis, suggesting the company's silicon anode technology is gaining market traction, particularly in its targeted aviation and high-performance EV segments. The company remains deeply unprofitable, with a Q4 2025 net loss of $24.391 million and an annualized net margin of -60.3%. However, there are signs of operational improvement: the gross margin turned positive in Q4 2025 at 23.65%, a massive recovery from the negative gross margins seen throughout 2024 and early 2025. This suggests the company is moving past initial production challenges and beginning to realize economies of scale, though operating expenses remain high, leading to an operating margin of -11.67% for the quarter. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 7.08, supported by $90.465 million in cash at the end of Q4 2025. The debt-to-equity ratio is a manageable 0.38, indicating limited financial leverage risk. However, cash flow generation is a concern: free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) was -$35.534 million, and operating cash flow in Q4 2025 was -$3.497 million. The company is currently funding its growth and losses through its cash reserves and equity issuance, as seen in the $23.088 million from common stock issued in Q4 2025. Return on equity is deeply negative at -42.4%, reflecting the significant losses relative to shareholder equity.
Quarterly Revenue
$25234000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.37%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.23%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-35534000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is AMPX Overvalued?
Given the company's negative net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 13.47, while the Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) is a much higher 35.21, reflecting the company's net cash position which reduces its enterprise value. There is no forward PS ratio provided, but analyst estimates for revenue are significantly higher, suggesting the market is pricing in explosive future growth. Comparing Amprius's valuation to industry peers is challenging without explicit sector averages in the data. However, a PS ratio of 13.5x and an EV/Sales of 35.2x are exceptionally high for a traditional industrial parts manufacturer, placing it squarely in the category of a high-growth, speculative technology story. This premium is ostensibly justified by the company's disruptive technology and the >137% revenue growth rate, but it also implies near-perfect commercial execution is already priced in. Historically, the stock's own valuation has expanded dramatically with its price surge. The historical ratios data shows the PS ratio has compressed from extreme levels above 100x in 2023 and early 2024 (when revenue was minimal) to the current 13.5x as sales have ramped. The current PS ratio of 13.5x sits well below the 41.3x recorded at the end of Q4 2025 (per historical ratios data), indicating that while the stock price has risen, revenue growth has outpaced it, leading to multiple contraction. This suggests the recent rally has been driven by fundamental improvement rather than pure multiple expansion, though the absolute multiple remains rich.
PE
-22.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -148x~-2x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-22.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks center on the company's deep unprofitability and cash burn. With a Q4 net loss of $24.4 million, a net margin of -60.3%, and TTM free cash flow of -$35.5 million, AMPX remains dependent on its $90.5 million cash balance to fund operations. While gross margins have improved to 23.7%, operating expenses remain high, and the path to sustained positive cash flow is long and uncertain. Revenue, though growing rapidly, is still at a small scale, making the business vulnerable to any slowdown in customer adoption or production issues. Market & Competitive Risks are severe due to the stock's extreme valuation and speculative nature. Trading at a PS ratio of 13.5x and EV/Sales of 35.2x, AMPX is priced for flawless execution of a disruptive technology in a competitive battery market. The beta of 2.224 indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market downturns and risk-off sentiment, which could compress its premium multiple rapidly. Furthermore, the technology faces competition from established battery giants and other silicon anode startups; any failure to maintain its technological edge or achieve cost targets would be catastrophic for the narrative. Worst-Case Scenario involves a combination of a growth deceleration and a valuation multiple collapse. If Q1 2026 revenue fails to show sequential growth or gross margins retreat, it could trigger analyst downgrades and a loss of investor confidence. This could lead to a rapid unwind of speculative positions, exacerbated by the high short interest. A realistic downside could see the stock retrace to its recent consolidation low near $14, representing a -25% decline from $18.67, or in a severe bear market, test levels closer to its 52-week low of $1.97, implying a catastrophic loss of over -89%. The most probable adverse scenario is a -25% to -40% correction to the $11-$14 range if growth momentum falters.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Valuation & Execution Risk: The stock's premium multiple (PS 13.5x) depends on flawless execution of a 10x revenue growth plan; any stumble could cause a severe de-rating. 2) Financial Risk: The company is deeply unprofitable with a Q4 net loss of $24.4M and negative free cash flow, relying on its $90.5M cash balance. 3) Market Risk: With a beta of 2.22, the stock is highly volatile and sensitive to market downturns, which could compress its multiple rapidly. 4) Competitive & Technological Risk: As a disruptor in the battery space, it faces competition from established players and must continuously prove its technology's superiority and scalability.
The 12-month forecast for AMPX is highly bifurcated, with a wide range of outcomes reflecting its speculative nature. Our base case (50% probability) sees the stock trading between $18 and $22, as solid growth balances high valuation. The bull case (25% probability), driven by perfect execution and new contracts, could push the stock to $25-$30. The bear case (25% probability), triggered by growth deceleration or a market sell-off, could see it fall to $10-$14. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the stock remains volatile but range-bound as investors await clearer evidence that the company can scale toward its multi-hundred-million-dollar revenue targets.
AMPX is significantly overvalued by traditional metrics but may be fairly valued only if its transformative growth story materializes perfectly. The trailing Price-to-Sales ratio of 13.5x and Enterprise Value-to-Sales of 35.2x are exceptionally high, even for a growth stock. This valuation implies the market expects the company to grow revenue nearly tenfold from current levels to meet analyst estimates of $967 million. Compared to its own history, the PS ratio has contracted from over 100x as sales have ramped, but the absolute multiple remains rich. The valuation is not supported by current profitability (net margin -60.3%) and is entirely a bet on future execution.
AMPX is a high-risk, high-reward investment that is not a 'good buy' for most investors at its current price of $18.67. For aggressive growth investors with a high risk tolerance and a long-term view, it represents a speculative bet on a disruptive technology showing 137% revenue growth. However, with a PS ratio of 13.5x and the stock up 772% in a year, much of the success is already priced in. The potential upside is tied to achieving analyst revenue targets near $1 billion, but the downside risk is severe, with a realistic possibility of a -25% to -40% correction if growth falters. It is only suitable for a small, speculative portion of a portfolio.
AMPX is strictly a long-term, high-conviction investment for those betting on its technology becoming a mainstream solution. The company is in a pre-profitability, capital-intensive growth phase, and its story will take years to fully play out. Its extreme volatility (beta 2.22) and lack of dividends make it unsuitable for short-term trading or income. Given the multi-year timeline required to achieve analyst revenue targets and potential profitability, investors should have a minimum holding period of 3-5 years to weather inevitable volatility and allow the business plan to unfold. Short-term traders face significant risk from earnings-related gaps and sentiment shifts.