APA Corporation Common Stock
APA
$38.75
-9.80%
APA Corporation is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company focused on developing and producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It operates as a geographically diversified mid-cap player with key assets in the United States, Egypt, the North Sea, and Suriname, with the U.S. segment generating the majority of its revenue. The current investor narrative is heavily influenced by geopolitical events impacting global energy supply, particularly the recent attack on Qatar's LNG facility, which has ignited a bullish repricing for U.S. natural gas exporters and producers like APA, positioning the stock as a potential beneficiary of a structural shift in global energy flows.…
APA
APA Corporation Common Stock
$38.75
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APA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on APA Corporation Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $50.38 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$50.38
1 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
1
covering this stock
Price Range
$31 - $50
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage appears limited in the provided dataset, with only one analyst providing estimates, which suggests the stock may have constrained institutional interest typical of some mid-cap E&Ps. The single analyst has an estimated EPS average of $5.63 for the upcoming period, with a wide range from $4.31 to $6.94, indicating high uncertainty around future earnings power, likely tied to volatile commodity price forecasts. The recent institutional ratings show a mixed but generally cautious sentiment, with firms like Goldman Sachs maintaining a 'Sell' and Morgan Stanley an 'Underweight', while others like Barclays recently upgraded to 'Equal Weight' from 'Underweight'; this pattern of recent upgrades amidst a cautious backdrop could signal a turning point in analyst sentiment if operational and macro conditions continue to improve.
APA Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 97.93% one-year price appreciation. As of the latest close of $42.04, APA is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 92% of the way from its 52-week low of $13.58 to its high of $45.66, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension relative to its recent history. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong and is accelerating; the stock has surged 31.99% over the past month and 65.77% over the past three months, far outpacing the broader market's negative returns over the same periods, which suggests the rally is driven by strong company or sector-specific catalysts. Key technical levels are clear, with immediate resistance at the 52-week high of $45.66 and support at the 52-week low of $13.58, though more relevant near-term support may be found around the $30-$32 level from the March consolidation; a beta of 0.484 indicates the stock has been significantly less volatile than the market during this period, which is unusual for an E&P name but may reflect its recent strong directional move with limited pullbacks.
Beta
0.48
0.48x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$14-$46
Price range past year
Annual Return
+176.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | APA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +18.9% | -0.3% |
| 3m | +52.7% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +76.6% | +3.5% |
| 1y | +176.2% | +36.2% |
| ytd | +52.8% | -0.9% |
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APA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been volatile, reflecting the cyclical nature of commodity prices, with the most recent quarterly revenue at $1.99 billion, representing a 26.6% year-over-year decline; however, sequentially from Q3 to Q4 2025, revenue declined only 5.9%, suggesting a potential stabilization. The company is profitable, reporting net income of $279 million for Q4 2025, with a gross margin of 39.23% and an operating margin of 32.15%; profitability has improved from a net loss in Q3 2024, but margins have compressed from the 40.5% gross margin reported in Q4 2024, indicating pressure from lower realized prices or higher costs. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, and the company is generating substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.78 billion and a current ratio of 0.82, which points to strong operational cash generation but relatively tight short-term liquidity that is typical for capital-intensive E&P firms.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.26%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.39%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is APA Overvalued?
Given a positive net income of $279 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 6.12x, while the forward P/E is 12.10x; this significant gap implies the market expects a substantial decline in earnings over the next twelve months, which is consistent with analyst EPS estimates that are higher than the most recent quarterly run-rate, suggesting anticipated recovery. Compared to sector averages, APA's trailing P/E of 6.12x and Price/Sales of 0.98x appear deeply discounted relative to many energy peers, though direct industry average multiples are not provided in the data for a quantified spread. Historically, the stock's current trailing P/E of 6.12x is near the bottom of its own historical range observed over the past several years, where it has frequently traded at much higher multiples (e.g., 20x+ in early 2023); this suggests the market is currently pricing in very pessimistic earnings expectations or a cyclical trough, presenting a potential value opportunity if fundamentals stabilize or improve.
PE
6.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -24x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
2.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple