EOG

EOG Resources

$134.93

+0.60%
May 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
EOG Resources, Inc. is a leading independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company, primarily operating in major U.S. shale plays such as the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford. The company is distinguished as a low-cost, high-margin operator with a disciplined capital allocation strategy, focusing on generating substantial free cash flow and returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's sensitivity to volatile oil prices, with recent news highlighting a 'geopolitical windfall' from supply disruptions and record inventory drawdowns, juxtaposed against sudden price crashes from potential de-escalation, framing EOG as a key beneficiary or casualty of macro energy trends.

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EOG 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $134.93
Average Target $134.93
High Target $155.1695
Low Target $114.6905

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on EOG Resources's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $175.41 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$175.41

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$108 - $175

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for EOG appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 3 analysts contributing to estimates, which is unusually low for a large-cap company and may indicate data sourcing limitations. The consensus sentiment, based on recent institutional ratings, leans neutral to cautiously optimistic, with firms like Wells Fargo and UBS maintaining 'Overweight' and 'Buy' ratings, while others like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Mizuho have 'Neutral' or 'Equal Weight' stances, reflecting a balanced view amid oil price uncertainty. The target price range, derived from estimated EPS, is exceptionally wide with a low of $13.53 and a high of $19.60, signaling very low analyst consensus and high uncertainty; the high target likely assumes sustained high oil prices and operational execution, while the low target may price in a severe commodity downturn or margin compression, making the average target of $16.93 of limited practical use for investment decision-making due to the extreme dispersion.

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EOG Technical Analysis

The stock is in a strong, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +24.42% and a 6-month gain of +31.28%. As of the latest close at $138.95, the price is trading approximately 74% of the way up its 52-week range ($101.59 to $151.87), indicating robust momentum but also positioning it closer to recent highs, which suggests potential for near-term consolidation or profit-taking. Recent momentum shows a slight divergence, with a 1-month pullback of -1.05% contrasting with the strong 3-month gain of +23.92%; this short-term weakness, particularly against a strong market (SPY up 9.98% over the same month for a relative strength of -11.03), signals a temporary pause or sector-specific headwinds within the longer-term bullish trend. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $101.59, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $151.87; a breakout above resistance would confirm the resumption of the primary uptrend, while a sustained breakdown below support would signal a major trend reversal. The stock's beta of 0.33 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market, which is atypical for an energy producer and may reflect its perceived quality and defensive characteristics during the recent period.

Beta

0.28

0.28x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$102-$152

Price range past year

Annual Return

+15.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEOG ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.5%+8.2%
3m+14.5%+9.0%
6m+22.2%+10.5%
1y+15.7%+26.5%
ytd+25.8%+8.9%

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EOG Fundamental Analysis

EOG's revenue trajectory has been stable but showed a slight year-over-year contraction in the latest reported quarter (Q4 2025), with revenue of $5.64 billion representing a -0.21% YoY change; segment data reveals Oil and Condensate sales of $2.99 billion remain the primary driver, though the multi-quarter trend from 2024 shows revenue levels fluctuating with commodity prices rather than exhibiting consistent organic growth. The company remains highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $701 million and a robust gross margin of 77.78%; however, profitability has compressed from earlier quarters in 2025 (e.g., Q3 net income of $1.47 billion), reflecting the impact of lower realized prices and higher costs, with the net margin declining to 12.43% in Q4 from over 25% in prior quarters. The balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.28 and a healthy current ratio of 1.92; the company generated substantial free cash flow of $3.56 billion over the trailing twelve months, providing ample internal funding for capital expenditures, dividends (payout ratio of 43.4%), and share repurchases, underpinning its financial resilience and shareholder return capability.

Quarterly Revenue

$5.6B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.00%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.77%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$3.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Other, Net
Natural Gas, Gathering, Transportation, Marketing and Processing
Natural Gas, Production
Oil and Condensate

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Valuation Analysis: Is EOG Overvalued?

Given EOG's consistent profitability (Net Income > 0), the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 11.37x and a forward PE of 9.84x; the lower forward multiple suggests the market anticipates modest earnings growth or stabilization in the coming year. Compared to sector averages implied by the data, EOG's valuation presents a mixed picture: its trailing PE of 11.37x is below the historical average for the stock itself, while its Price-to-Sales ratio of 2.51x and EV/EBITDA of 5.45x appear reasonable for a high-margin E&P company, though direct industry comps are not provided in the dataset for a precise premium/discount calculation. Historically, the current trailing PE of 11.37x sits near the lower end of its own range observed over recent years (e.g., it has traded above 20x in late 2025 and as high as 44x in early 2022), suggesting the stock is priced for relatively subdued earnings expectations compared to past cycles, potentially offering a value opportunity if the earnings base proves resilient.

PE

11.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 6x~44x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

5.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple