APi Group Corporation
APG
$43.81
+4.46%
APi Group Corporation is a leading provider of safety, specialty, and industrial services, operating primarily through two segments: Safety Services, which designs, installs, and maintains integrated occupancy systems like fire protection and HVAC, and Specialty Services, which focuses on critical infrastructure maintenance and repair. The company has established itself as a significant consolidator and service platform within the fragmented industrial services sector, leveraging its scale and end-to-end capabilities across commercial, healthcare, and industrial end markets. The current investor narrative centers on the company's successful execution of a multi-year turnaround and deleveraging strategy following a major acquisition, with recent attention focused on its improving organic growth, margin expansion potential, and strong free cash flow generation as it moves past integration challenges.…
APG
APi Group Corporation
$43.81
APG 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on APi Group Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $56.95 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$56.95
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$35 - $57
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for APG appears limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates for revenue and EPS, suggesting it may be a mid-cap name with less institutional following, which can lead to higher volatility. The available data shows estimated EPS for a future period averaging $1.90, with a tight range from $1.87 to $1.93, indicating strong consensus on near-term profitability, but no consensus price target or recommendation distribution is provided in the dataset. Institutional ratings from firms like Barclays, RBC Capital, and Citigroup are uniformly positive, with all recent actions being 'Buy', 'Overweight', or 'Outperform' ratings, and no downgrades noted in the provided history, signaling strong and stable bullish sentiment among covering banks. The lack of a published target price range in the data implies that while analyst sentiment is positive, the specific upside potential is not quantified here, and investors should note that limited coverage can sometimes mean less efficient price discovery compared to heavily followed large-cap peers.
APG Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained and powerful uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +73.53%, significantly outperforming the broader market. As of the latest close of $42.03, the price is trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 82% of the distance from the 52-week low of $20.50 to the high of $46.89, indicating strong momentum but also approaching a key resistance level that could signal potential overextension. Recent momentum shows some divergence, with the stock up 7.85% over the last three months but down -2.91% over the past month, suggesting a near-term consolidation or pullback within the longer-term bullish structure, a pattern corroborated by the price retreating from its February peak near $45.29. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $46.89 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $20.50 as major support; a decisive breakout above $46.89 would confirm the resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the recent March low near $39.11 could signal a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 1.69 indicates it is approximately 69% more volatile than the SPY, which is critical for risk assessment as its amplified moves require careful position sizing, especially during periods of market stress like the recent 1-month SPY decline of -4.28%.
Beta
1.69
1.69x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-16.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$21-$47
Price range past year
Annual Return
+104.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | APG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +3.2% | -0.3% |
| 3m | +8.2% | -2.0% |
| 6m | +28.7% | +3.5% |
| 1y | +104.1% | +36.2% |
| ytd | +12.4% | -0.9% |
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APG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is healthy and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.12 billion representing a 13.76% year-over-year increase, and sequential quarterly revenue has climbed from $1.72B in Q1 to $2.12B in Q4, indicating positive momentum. The Safety Services segment, at $1.42 billion, is the dominant revenue driver, while the smaller Specialty Contracting segment contributed $333 million, highlighting the company's core focus on life safety systems. Profitability is improving, with Q4 2025 net income of $97 million translating to a net margin of 4.58%, and gross margin has expanded sequentially from 31.53% in Q1 to 32.03% in Q4, demonstrating operational leverage and pricing power. Although the reported diluted EPS of -$1.13 for Q4 is distorted by one-time items, the underlying operating income of $164 million and an operating margin of 7.75% reflect a fundamentally profitable business model. The balance sheet is strengthening, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96 indicating manageable leverage, and the company generated robust free cash flow of $663 million over the trailing twelve months, providing ample liquidity for debt reduction and shareholder returns. A current ratio of 1.50 and an ROE of 8.86% suggest solid financial health and adequate returns on capital, positioning the company to self-fund its growth initiatives.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.13%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.32%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$663000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is APG Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 52.70x, while the forward P/E is substantially lower at 22.07x, indicating the market is pricing in significant earnings growth and normalization from recent one-time charges. The wide gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects expectations for a sharp recovery in profitability, as analysts forecast EPS to rise to approximately $1.90. Compared to sector averages, APG's forward P/E of 22.07x and P/S ratio of 2.01x are not directly comparable without explicit industry comps in the data, but its EV/EBITDA of 20.76x suggests a premium valuation that investors may be willing to pay for its growth profile and market leadership in safety services. Historically, the stock's own valuation has compressed from peak levels; its current trailing P/E of 52.70x is below the Q1 2025 high of 70.81x but remains above the Q4 2024 level of 36.91x, indicating the market has already priced in much of the anticipated earnings recovery. Trading near the upper end of its recent historical P/E band suggests optimistic expectations are embedded, leaving less room for multiple expansion and making future price gains more dependent on earnings delivery.
PE
52.7x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -174x~97x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.8x
Enterprise Value Multiple

