EME

EMCOR

$804.33

-3.08%
Jul 1, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
EMCOR Group, Inc. is a leading specialty contractor in the United States, providing electrical and mechanical construction, facilities services, building services, and industrial services to a diverse client base across commercial, industrial, healthcare, and institutional sectors. The company operates as a market leader through a decentralized network of approximately 100 subsidiaries, which provides it with a distinct competitive advantage in local execution and national scale. The current investor narrative is driven by robust revenue growth fueled by strong demand in its core U.S. mechanical and electrical segments, as evidenced by recent quarterly results, alongside a focus on operational efficiency and margin expansion in a favorable industrial and infrastructure spending environment.

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EME 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $804.33
Average Target $804.33
High Target $924.9795
Low Target $683.6805

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on EMCOR's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1045.63 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1045.63

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$643 - $1046

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for EME is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates according to the data. The consensus recommendation is strongly bullish, as evidenced by the institutional ratings history which shows consistent 'Buy' or 'Outperform' actions from firms like UBS, Stifel, Baird, and DA Davidson throughout 2025 and 2026, with no downgrades. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but analysts estimate an average EPS of $49.73 for the forward period. Using the forward PE of 24.43x implies a consensus price target of approximately $1,215, which would represent a substantial +52% upside from the current price of $798.1, indicating very bullish sentiment. The target range, derived from EPS estimates, is wide: the low EPS estimate of $47.60 implies a price of ~$1,163, and the high EPS estimate of $51.94 implies a price of ~$1,269, using the forward PE multiple. This wide range signals significant uncertainty or variance in analyst assumptions about future growth and margins. The high target likely incorporates scenarios of continued market share gains, margin expansion, and strong cyclical tailwinds, while the low target may factor in potential economic slowdowns or competitive pressures. The pattern of reiterated Buy ratings suggests strong institutional conviction in the company's fundamental story despite the stock's recent volatility.

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EME Technical Analysis

EME is in a sustained long-term uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +56.187%, but is currently experiencing a significant pullback from recent highs. The stock closed at $798.1, which positions it at approximately 59% of its 52-week range ($516.91 to $951.96), indicating a retreat from peak levels and suggesting a potential consolidation or correction phase after a powerful rally. Recent momentum has turned negative, with the stock down -6.6833% over the past month and underperforming the SPY, which was down -2.86%, as shown by a relative strength of -3.8233. This short-term weakness contrasts with the strong 3-month gain of +8.8977%, signaling a potential pause or profit-taking within the broader uptrend, a dynamic further highlighted by the stock's beta of 1.124, indicating it is typically 12.4% more volatile than the market. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $516.91, while immediate overhead resistance sits near the 52-week high of $951.96. A decisive breakout above the recent high would signal a resumption of the primary bullish trend, whereas a breakdown below the recent low near $700 could indicate a deeper correction is underway. The stock's beta of 1.124 confirms it exhibits moderately higher volatility than the broader market, which investors must factor into position sizing, especially given the maximum drawdown of -25.15% observed in the provided price data, underscoring the stock's capacity for significant swings. The price action shows the stock reached a peak of $951.96 before retreating to the current $798.1, a decline of over 16% from the high. This pullback, occurring alongside a negative 1-month return, suggests the market is digesting the prior gains. Volume and RSI data are not available in the provided metrics, but the price change from the previous close of $862.66, a drop of -7.4838%, indicates heightened selling pressure in the very near term, warranting close observation for stabilization around key Fibonacci retracement levels or moving averages not specified in the data.

Beta

1.12

1.12x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$529-$952

Price range past year

Annual Return

+51.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEME ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.2%-1.7%
3m+6.4%+13.7%
6m+25.9%+9.2%
1y+51.5%+20.7%
ytd+25.9%+9.4%

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EME Fundamental Analysis

EME's revenue trajectory is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $4.52 billion representing a 19.81% year-over-year growth rate. This growth has been consistent, as quarterly revenue has climbed sequentially from $3.86 billion in Q1 2025 to the latest $4.52 billion, indicating strong demand across its service lines. The revenue segment data, though incomplete, shows contributions from U.S. Building Services ($567.9 million), U.S. Industrial Services ($640.9 million), and U.K. Building Services ($64.6 million) for an unspecified period, highlighting a diversified revenue base. This sustained top-line expansion is the core driver of the investment case, positioning the company to benefit from ongoing infrastructure and industrial investment cycles. The company is highly profitable, with net income of $431.8 million in Q4 2025 and a trailing twelve-month net margin of 7.47%. Profitability metrics are strong, with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 34.57% and a Return on Assets (ROA) of 11.75%. Gross margin for the latest quarter was 20.71%, showing improvement from the 19.39% in the prior quarter (Q3 2025), indicating effective cost management and potential pricing power. The operating margin also improved to 11.77% in Q4 from 9.43% in Q3, demonstrating operational leverage as revenue scales. EME maintains a very healthy balance sheet and generates substantial cash flow. The debt-to-equity ratio is a conservative 0.23, indicating minimal financial leverage and low risk. Liquidity is solid, with a current ratio of 1.22. Most importantly, the company generated $1.19 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing ample internal resources to fund growth initiatives, strategic acquisitions (evidenced by acquisition activity in cash flow statements), and shareholder returns via share repurchases. The strong ROE of 34.57% is supported by this efficient use of capital and a lean balance sheet.

Quarterly Revenue

$4.5B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.19%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.20%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

United States Building Services
United States Industrial Services
United Kingdom Building Services

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Valuation Analysis: Is EME Overvalued?

Given EME's positive and substantial net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 21.70x and a forward PE of 24.43x based on analyst estimates. The forward PE being higher than the trailing PE suggests the market is pricing in expectations for earnings growth, though the modest gap could also reflect a recent pullback in the stock price relative to near-term estimates. Compared to industry averages, specific sector multiples are not provided in the valuation data. However, we can contextualize using the provided valuation ratios: EME's trailing PE of 21.70x and Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.62x. Without a direct industry benchmark, we note the PEG ratio of 0.71, which is below 1.0 and traditionally suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate. The EV/EBITDA of 13.72x provides another angle, but a peer comparison for this metric is also unavailable in the data set. Historically, EME's current trailing PE of 21.70x sits well above its own historical range observed in the data, which has fluctuated between approximately 12x and 21x over the past several years. For instance, the PE ratio was 15.96x at the end of Q4 2025 and 17.86x at the end of Q4 2024. Trading near the upper end of its historical band suggests the market is currently pricing in optimistic expectations for sustained high profitability and growth, leaving less margin for error if execution falters.

PE

21.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 12x~25x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

13.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple