Boeing
BA
$232.79
-0.70%
Boeing is a global aerospace and defense leader, operating through three primary segments: Commercial Airplanes, Defense, Space & Security, and Global Services. It is one of only two major manufacturers of large commercial aircraft, competing directly with Airbus, and a top-tier defense contractor alongside Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman. The current investor narrative centers on the FAA's recent certification of the 737 MAX 7, which unlocks a key delivery stream, alongside a broader operational recovery marked by accelerating deliveries and a rebound in commercial aerospace demand. However, the stock remains under pressure from lingering supply chain issues, high debt levels, and geopolitical tensions that affect the broader market.…
BA
Boeing
$232.79
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy BA Today?
Rating: Buy. Boeing is a high-risk, high-reward turnaround play, and the current risk/reward is favorable given the analyst consensus of 'Buy' with an average target of $273.35, implying 17.7% upside. The thesis is that the FAA certification of the 737 MAX 7 and accelerating revenue growth will drive earnings recovery and margin expansion, leading to a re-rating of the stock.
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BA 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses Boeing as a bullish opportunity with medium confidence. The positive revenue trajectory and analyst sentiment are strong, but the negative free cash flow and high leverage introduce significant risk. The model would upgrade to high confidence if the company reports positive free cash flow or if the stock price breaks above the 52-week high. Conversely, a downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if the stock falls below $200.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Boeing's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $274.69 and implied upside of +18.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$274.69
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$246 - $305
Analyst target range
Boeing is covered by 26 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 1.61 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $273.35, implying an upside of 17.7% from the current price of $232.19. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the mean rating suggests a strong bullish tilt, with 26 analysts actively covering the stock. The high target of $300 implies a 29.2% upside, while the low target of $246 implies a 5.9% upside, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees some upside. The wide range between low and high targets (54 points) reflects uncertainty about the pace of the recovery, but the overall sentiment is positive, with recent actions from firms like Citigroup, Jefferies, and UBS reiterating Buy ratings.
Bulls vs Bears: BA Investment Factors
Boeing presents a mixed picture: strong operational recovery signs (revenue growth, MAX 7 certification, defense wins) are offset by financial fragility (negative FCF, high debt, thin margins). The bull case is supported by analyst optimism and a valuation discount, while the bear case hinges on execution risks and macro headwinds. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the concrete catalysts and improving revenue trajectory, but the high leverage and cash burn remain the key tension. The most critical factor is whether Boeing can convert its growing revenue into sustainable profitability and positive free cash flow, which would validate the recovery thesis and justify the stock's premium valuation.
Bullish
- 737 MAX 7 FAA Certification: The FAA certified the 737 MAX 7 in August 2026, a major milestone that unlocks deliveries and revenue for Boeing's key commercial aircraft. This is expected to accelerate cash flow and improve the delivery schedule, supporting the company's recovery narrative.
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 13.96% YoY to $22.22 billion, up from $19.50 billion in Q1 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of YoY growth, driven by all three segments, indicating a broad-based recovery in demand.
- Analyst Consensus Strong Buy: With 26 analysts, the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.61 (1=Strong Buy, 5=Sell). The average price target of $273.35 implies a 17.7% upside from the current price of $232.19, and even the low target of $246 offers a 5.9% upside.
- Defense Segment Secures Key Contracts: Boeing recently won a $2 billion USAF contract for large satellites, reinforcing its defense backlog. This provides revenue visibility and diversification against commercial aerospace cyclicality.
Bearish
- Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow: TTM free cash flow is -$1.04 billion, indicating the company is still burning cash. This is a concern for debt reduction and shareholder returns, and it limits financial flexibility.
- High Debt and Leverage: Debt-to-equity ratio is 9.98, reflecting a highly leveraged balance sheet. Interest expense of $616 million in Q1 2026 adds a significant fixed cost, and any further debt issuance could dilute equity.
- Weak Profitability Metrics: Operating margin is -6.05% and net margin is 2.50% (TTM), but Q1 2026 net income was -$4 million. The company is barely breaking even, and profitability remains far below historical norms.
- Underperformance vs. Market: Boeing's 1-year return of +3.18% lags the S&P 500's +21.46% by 18.28 percentage points. Relative strength over 1 year is -18.28%, indicating persistent market underperformance.
BA Technical Analysis
Boeing's stock is in a broad recovery phase, having gained 3.18% over the past year, but it remains well below its 52-week high of $254.35, currently trading at $232.19, which is approximately 91% of the 52-week range (calculated as (232.19 - 176.77) / (254.35 - 176.77) = 0.71, or 71% of the range). This positioning suggests the stock is in the upper half of its range, indicating a recovery from the lows but still short of a full breakout. The 1-year price change of +3.18% contrasts sharply with the S&P 500's +21.46% gain, showing significant underperformance, and the relative strength over 1 year is -18.28%, highlighting persistent weakness relative to the market.
Beta
1.22
1.22x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$177-$254
Price range past year
Annual Return
+1.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.7% | +2.4% |
| 3m | -1.7% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -1.5% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +1.6% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +2.2% | +13.4% |
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BA Fundamental Analysis
Boeing's revenue trajectory is improving, with Q1 2026 revenue of $22.22 billion, up 13.96% year-over-year from $19.50 billion in Q1 2025. This marks a continuation of a recovery from the pandemic and 737 MAX crisis, with quarterly revenue rising from $15.24 billion in Q4 2024 to $23.95 billion in Q4 2025, though Q1 2026 saw a slight sequential decline. The growth is driven by all segments, with Commercial Airplanes contributing $9.20 billion, Defense, Space & Security $7.60 billion, and Global Services $5.37 billion in the most recent quarter. The revenue growth is a positive sign, but the pace is moderate, and the company still faces challenges in ramping up production to meet demand.
Quarterly Revenue
$22.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
11.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BA Overvalued?
Given Boeing's negative trailing twelve-month net income (TTM net income is -$4 million as of Q1 2026, and the trailing PE is 87.20, which is not meaningful), I selected the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The current PS ratio is 1.85, based on a market cap of $165.5 billion and TTM revenue of approximately $89.5 billion. The forward PE of 56.17 suggests the market expects significant earnings recovery, but the negative PEG ratio of -0.77 indicates that growth expectations are not yet reflected in a positive PEG. Compared to the aerospace & defense industry average PS ratio of approximately 2.0 (based on typical peers), Boeing trades at a 7.5% discount, which is modest given its operational recovery and strong order book.
PE
87.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
28.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Boeing's balance sheet is highly leveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.98, and interest expense of $616 million in Q1 2026 consumes a significant portion of operating income. The company's TTM free cash flow is -$1.04 billion, indicating ongoing cash burn, which limits its ability to reduce debt or return capital to shareholders. Revenue concentration in commercial airplanes (41% of Q1 revenue) exposes the company to cyclical downturns in airline demand, and the recent fuel price shock could dampen order activity. Additionally, the negative operating margin of -6.05% and net margin of 2.50% (TTM) highlight persistent profitability challenges, with Q1 2026 net income of -$4 million showing only marginal improvement.