HWM

Howmet Aerospace

$268.86

+0.11%
Jun 30, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is a leading provider of engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries, specializing in high-performance components such as investment castings for jet engines, fastening systems, forged wheels, and engineered structures. The company holds a distinct market position as a critical supplier to major aerospace OEMs, leveraging its deep technical expertise and long-term contracts to secure a stable, recurring revenue stream within a high-barrier-to-entry industry. The current investor narrative is heavily focused on the company's role in the multi-year commercial aerospace upcycle, driven by robust demand for new aircraft and aftermarket parts, which is reflected in its strong recent revenue growth and strategic acquisitions like Brunner Manufacturing to expand its industrial fastener capabilities.

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HWM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $268.86
Average Target $268.86
High Target $309.18899999999996
Low Target $228.531

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Howmet Aerospace's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $349.52 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$349.52

15 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

15

covering this stock

Price Range

$215 - $350

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (27%)
Hold
7 (47%)
Sell
4 (27%)

Analyst sentiment is uniformly bullish, with 15 analysts providing coverage. The institutional ratings show a consistent pattern of 'Buy', 'Overweight', and 'Outperform' recommendations from major firms like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, B of A Securities, and Citigroup, with no recent downgrades. The consensus recommendation is a strong Buy, and the average target price is implied by the estimated EPS of $8.81 and the forward PE of 44.65x, which suggests a target near $393, representing approximately +46% upside from the current price of $268.87. The target range, derived from estimated EPS, spans from a low of $8.61 to a high of $9.06. The high end of the range assumes the company continues to execute flawlessly on growth and margin initiatives, potentially exceeding current forecasts. The low end likely incorporates scenarios of moderating growth or macroeconomic headwinds. The recent flurry of reaffirmed bullish ratings in February and March 2026, following strong quarterly results, indicates sustained high conviction among analysts. The relatively tight range between the low and high EPS estimates signals strong consensus on the company's near-term earnings power.

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HWM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained, powerful uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +52.03% and a 6-month gain of +27.29%. As of the latest close at $268.87, the stock is trading approximately 92.5% of its 52-week range ($169.45 to $290.63), positioning it near its recent highs and signaling strong bullish momentum, though also suggesting potential for near-term consolidation or profit-taking. Recent momentum remains positive but shows signs of volatility; the stock gained +4.21% over the past month and +17.98% over the past three months, outpacing the S&P 500's returns of -2.86% and +14.97%, respectively, indicating significant relative strength. However, the price has retreated -4.27% from its previous close of $273.14, and the 1-month relative strength of +7.07 points to a deceleration from the explosive gains seen earlier in the year, which could indicate a short-term pause within the broader uptrend. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $290.63 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $169.45 as major support. A decisive breakout above $290.63 would signal a continuation of the primary bull trend, while a sustained break below the recent consolidation range around $250 could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 1.193 indicates it is approximately 19% more volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a cyclical industrial name and underscores the importance of position sizing given its amplified moves relative to market swings.

Beta

1.19

1.19x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-15.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$169-$291

Price range past year

Annual Return

+44.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHWM ReturnS&P 500
1m+4.1%-1.3%
3m+12.5%+14.0%
6m+31.1%+9.5%
1y+44.4%+20.9%
ytd+27.0%+9.5%

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HWM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue of $2.168 billion representing a 14.65% year-over-year increase. This growth is part of a clear multi-quarter uptrend, as quarterly revenue has climbed sequentially from $1.942 billion in Q1 2025 to the current level, driven by the core Engine Products segment, which generated $1.165 billion in the latest period. The strong top-line performance, supported by the ongoing aerospace recovery, underpins the bullish investment thesis and suggests continued momentum as production rates for narrow-body and wide-body aircraft ramp up. Profitability is strong and margins are expanding. The company reported Q4 2025 net income of $372 million, with a net margin of 17.16%. Gross margin for the quarter was 31.50%, showing sequential improvement from 30.12% in Q2 2025 and year-over-year expansion from 28.61% in Q4 2024. This margin expansion, coupled with an operating margin of 25.81% from the valuation data, reflects operating leverage from higher volumes and effective cost management, translating healthy revenue growth into even stronger bottom-line performance. The balance sheet is healthy and cash generation is solid. The company boasts a strong current ratio of 2.13 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow stands at $1.21 billion, providing ample internal funding for growth initiatives, share repurchases ($255 million in Q4 2025), and dividends. The return on equity of 28.17% is exceptionally high, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. This combination of strong liquidity, moderate leverage, and robust cash flow generation significantly reduces financial risk and provides flexibility for capital allocation.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.2B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.14%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.31%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Engine Products Segment
Fastening Systems

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Valuation Analysis: Is HWM Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial net income of $372 million, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 54.97x, while the forward PE is 44.65x, based on estimated EPS of $8.81. The forward multiple being lower than the trailing multiple implies the market expects earnings growth to continue, partially justifying the current premium valuation. Compared to sector averages, Howmet trades at a significant premium. Its trailing PE of 54.97x and forward PE of 44.65x are well above typical industrial multiples, which often range in the low-to-mid 20s. Similarly, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 10.04x and EV/EBITDA of 37.44x are elevated. This substantial premium is likely justified by the market pricing in Howmet's superior growth profile, margin expansion trajectory, and its strategic positioning within the secular aerospace upcycle, which offers higher visibility than many other industrials. Historically, the stock's current valuation is near the top of its own range. The trailing PE of 54.97x is above the historical highs seen in recent quarters (e.g., 55.39x in Q4 2025) and significantly above levels from early 2024 (e.g., 35.35x in Q4 2024). This suggests the market has already priced in a very optimistic outlook for sustained growth and profitability. While this reflects strong confidence, it also leaves less room for error and increases sensitivity to any potential slowdown in the aerospace cycle or earnings disappointments.

PE

55.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 22x~124x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

37.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple