Chord Energy Corporation
CHRD
$131.80
-4.74%
Chord Energy Corporation is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil, NGL, and natural gas, primarily in the Williston Basin. As a pure-play operator in one of the most prolific U.S. basins, Chord distinguishes itself through its high-return, low-cost asset base and disciplined capital allocation. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain production growth and generate robust free cash flow amid volatile oil prices, with recent news highlighting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a subsequent 14% plunge in crude prices, which introduces near-term uncertainty for the sector.…
CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$131.80
CHRD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Chord Energy Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $165.47 and implied upside of +25.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$165.47
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+25.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$129 - $209
Analyst target range
Chord Energy is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'strong_buy' (mean rating 1.4 on a 1-5 scale). The average target price is $165.47, implying an upside of +19.6% from the current price of $138.36. The distribution leans heavily bullish, with no sell ratings and only a few neutral holds. The target range spans from a low of $129.00 to a high of $209.00. The high target of $209.00 assumes significant multiple expansion or sustained high oil prices, while the low target of $129.00 prices in potential margin compression or a downturn in commodity prices. Recent ratings actions show stability: Citigroup maintained Neutral, while UBS, Truist, and Morgan Stanley reiterated Buy/Overweight ratings in July 2026, indicating continued confidence. The wide spread between low and high targets ($80) reflects high uncertainty around oil price trajectories and operational execution. Overall, the analyst community is bullish, but the wide range suggests divergent views on the stock's fair value.
Bulls vs Bears: CHRD Investment Factors
Chord Energy presents a compelling risk/reward profile with strong revenue growth, robust free cash flow, and a conservative balance sheet. The forward P/E of 9.43x is attractive, and analyst consensus is bullish with 19.6% upside to the average target. However, the stock is highly sensitive to oil prices, as evidenced by the recent 14% crude crash following the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The single most important tension is whether oil prices can stabilize or rise; if they do, Chord's earnings recovery will justify the forward multiple, but a sustained downturn could pressure margins and push the stock toward the low analyst target of $129. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the strong operational momentum and low leverage, but oil price risk remains the key variable.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.666 billion grew 37.1% YoY, accelerating from prior quarters. This top-line momentum is driven by robust oil production and higher realized prices, indicating strong operational execution.
- Attractive Forward Valuation: Forward P/E of 9.43x is well below the trailing multiple of 125.27x and in line with E&P sector averages. This implies the market expects a sharp earnings recovery, making the stock reasonably priced on normalized earnings.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Q1 2026 free cash flow of $156.2 million and TTM FCF of $500.9 million provide ample liquidity for dividends and buybacks. The FCF yield of ~9.3% (based on market cap of $5.36B) is attractive for income-focused investors.
- Low Leverage and Solid Balance Sheet: Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.186 is conservative, and current ratio of 1.06 indicates adequate short-term liquidity. This financial flexibility allows Chord to weather oil price volatility and invest in growth.
Bearish
- High Trailing P/E Distorts Value: Trailing P/E of 125.27x is extremely elevated due to a one-time impairment loss in Q2 2025. While forward P/E is low, the earnings recovery is not guaranteed, and any miss could cause multiple compression.
- Oil Price Sensitivity and Recent Plunge: Recent news of the Strait of Hormuz reopening caused a 14% crude oil crash, directly impacting Chord's revenue outlook. As an E&P pure-play, Chord's earnings are highly sensitive to oil prices, and a sustained downturn could pressure margins.
- Volatile Profitability and Margin Pressure: Net margin of 6.52% in Q1 2026 is thin, and gross margin of 22.24% is below the 30%+ levels seen in early 2025. Operating margin of 20% is healthy but could compress if oil prices fall or costs rise.
- Low ROE and ROA: ROE of 0.55% and ROA of 3.07% are low, reflecting a large equity base and modest net income relative to assets. This suggests the company is not generating high returns on capital, which may limit valuation expansion.
CHRD Technical Analysis
Chord Energy is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +26.24%. The current price of $138.36 sits at 78.5% of its 52-week range ($84.25–$151.95), indicating the stock is trading closer to its highs, reflecting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock has recovered sharply from its 52-week low and is now within 9% of its high, suggesting bullish sentiment remains intact. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month price change of +15.37% and a 3-month change of +2.25%. The 1-month gain significantly outpaces the 3-month figure, indicating a recent surge in buying pressure. This divergence from the longer-term trend (1-year +26.24%) could signal a short-term breakout attempt, but the 3-month deceleration relative to the 1-month spike warrants caution for a potential pullback. The stock's beta of 0.38 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a lower-risk energy play. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $84.25, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $151.95. A breakout above $151.95 would signal a new uptrend leg, while a breakdown below $84.25 would indicate a bearish reversal. The low beta suggests Chord is less sensitive to broad market swings, which may appeal to risk-averse investors.
Beta
0.38
0.38x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$84-$152
Price range past year
Annual Return
+21.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHRD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.0% | +1.4% |
| 3m | -6.0% | +3.9% |
| 6m | +34.3% | +6.3% |
| 1y | +21.2% | +16.0% |
| ytd | +39.2% | +8.4% |
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CHRD Fundamental Analysis
Chord Energy's revenue trajectory is robust, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.6656 billion, representing a 37.08% year-over-year growth. This marks a significant acceleration from the prior quarter's revenue of $1.1694 billion (Q4 2025) and the year-ago Q1 2025 revenue of $1.2150 billion. The growth is driven by strong oil production, which accounted for $1.7118 billion in the latest segment data, while purchased oil sales contributed $624 million. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue rebounding from a dip in Q2 2025 ($1.1806 billion) to the current level, indicating a strong operational recovery. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $108.6 million and a gross margin of 22.24%. However, profitability has been volatile: net income swung from a loss of $389.9 million in Q2 2025 (due to impairment charges) to positive earnings in subsequent quarters. The gross margin has improved from 10.37% in Q4 2025 to 22.24% in Q1 2026, signaling margin expansion. The operating margin of 20.01% in Q1 2026 is healthy for the E&P sector, though the net margin of 6.52% reflects higher interest and tax expenses. Chord Energy maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.186, indicating low leverage. Free cash flow (FCF) was $156.2 million in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month FCF stands at $500.9 million, providing ample liquidity for dividends and share buybacks. The current ratio of 1.06 suggests adequate short-term liquidity, while ROE of 0.55% is low due to the large equity base, but the company's focus on FCF generation supports financial flexibility.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+37.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
22.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$500923000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHRD Overvalued?
Since Chord Energy has positive net income (TTM net income of $108.6 million in Q1 2026), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 125.27x, while the forward P/E is 9.43x, implying the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. The wide gap between trailing and forward P/E reflects the transitory nature of recent impairments and the anticipated normalization of earnings. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typical for E&P around 10-15x), Chord's forward P/E of 9.43x appears reasonable, though the trailing multiple is elevated due to past losses. The P/S ratio of 1.10x is low, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to sales. Historically, Chord's trailing P/E has ranged from 1.6x (Q3 2022) to 125x (current), placing it near the top of its historical band. This high trailing multiple is misleading due to the Q2 2025 loss; the forward P/E of 9.43x is closer to the historical median of ~7-8x, indicating the stock is fairly valued on forward earnings. The P/B ratio of 0.66x is below 1.0, suggesting the stock trades below book value, which could be a value signal if the asset base is stable.
PE
125.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Chord's profitability is volatile, with net income swinging from a loss of $389.9 million in Q2 2025 (due to impairment charges) to a profit of $108.6 million in Q1 2026. The net margin of 6.52% is thin, and the gross margin of 22.24% is below historical levels, indicating potential cost pressures. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.186 is low, but the current ratio of 1.06 suggests only adequate liquidity. Free cash flow generation is strong, but any operational disruption or decline in oil prices could quickly erode cash flows and force capital spending cuts.
Market & Competitive Risks: Chord's beta of 0.38 indicates low market correlation, but the stock is highly sensitive to oil prices, which are influenced by geopolitical events. The recent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz caused a 14% crude price plunge, directly impacting Chord's revenue outlook. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.43x, which is reasonable, but the trailing P/E of 125.27x is misleadingly high. If oil prices remain low, the forward multiple could expand as earnings estimates are cut, leading to valuation compression. Competition from other E&P operators and the shift toward renewable energy pose long-term structural risks.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a sustained oil price downturn (e.g., WTI below $50/bbl), Chord's revenue and earnings could decline sharply, potentially leading to negative free cash flow and dividend cuts. The stock could fall to its 52-week low of $84.25, representing a 39% decline from the current price of $138.36. This scenario would likely be accompanied by analyst downgrades and multiple compression, as seen in the low analyst target of $129. An investor could lose up to 39% in this adverse scenario.