Calumet, Inc. Common Stock
CLMT
$39.48
-5.73%
Calumet, Inc. is a specialty products and renewable fuels company that manufactures, formulates, and markets a diverse portfolio of base oils, specialty oils, solvents, esters, waxes, asphalt, and heavy fuel oils, serving both consumer-facing and industrial markets. As a niche player in the energy sector, Calumet differentiates itself through its vertically integrated operations and a growing focus on renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel, positioning it at the intersection of traditional refining and the energy transition. The current investor narrative centers on the company's transformative shift toward higher-margin specialty and renewable products, which has driven a remarkable stock rally over the past year, alongside ongoing volatility in quarterly earnings due to fluctuating crack spreads and operational disruptions. Recent attention has been amplified by analyst endorsements from major firms like Goldman Sachs and HC Wainwright, reflecting optimism about the company's strategic pivot and potential for sustained profitability.…
CLMT
Calumet, Inc. Common Stock
$39.48
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CLMT Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate CLMT as a Hold. The stock has strong momentum and a compelling strategic story, but the current price already reflects much of the optimism, with the stock trading above the average analyst target of $38.80. The consensus recommendation is 'Buy', but the average target implies a -6.9% downside, suggesting limited near-term upside. The thesis is that the company's pivot to specialty and renewable products will drive long-term growth, but the execution risk is high.
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CLMT 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock has strong momentum and a compelling strategic narrative, but the valuation is stretched, and the earnings trajectory is uncertain. The key factor is whether the company can consistently deliver profitability. If it does, the stock could move higher, but any disappointment could lead to a sharp correction. The AI would upgrade to bullish if the company reports two consecutive quarters of positive EPS and maintains positive gross margins. It would downgrade to bearish if the company reports a significant loss or if the stock breaks below the 50-day moving average.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Calumet, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $41.00 and implied upside of +3.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$41.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+3.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$26 - $60
Analyst target range
Calumet is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.33 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $38.80, which implies a -6.9% downside from the current price of $41.69, indicating that the stock has already surpassed the average analyst expectation. The target range spans from a low of $26.00 to a high of $60.00, with the high target suggesting potential upside of +43.9% if the company's renewable and specialty segments continue to outperform, while the low target reflects concerns about margin compression and operational volatility. Recent institutional actions have been predominantly positive, with Goldman Sachs and HC Wainwright reiterating Buy ratings in early 2026, while UBS maintains a Neutral stance, and the wide target spread underscores the uncertainty surrounding the company's earnings trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: CLMT Investment Factors
Calumet presents a classic high-risk, high-reward investment case. The bull case is anchored by a compelling strategic pivot to specialty and renewable products, evidenced by a 143% stock rally and a low price-to-sales ratio of 0.42x. However, the bear case is equally strong, with the stock trading above the average analyst target, a sky-high forward PE of 99.3x, and highly volatile earnings that included a -0.29% gross margin in Q4 2025. The most critical tension is whether the company can consistently deliver the profitability that the market is pricing in; if it does, the stock has significant upside, but any miss could trigger a sharp correction. Currently, the evidence is balanced, but the extreme valuation and operational volatility tilt the risk-reward slightly toward caution.
Bullish
- Massive 1-Year Stock Rally: CLMT has surged 143.2% over the past year, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's 16.0% return. This reflects strong investor conviction in the company's strategic pivot toward higher-margin specialty and renewable products.
- Undervalued on Price-to-Sales: The price-to-sales ratio stands at 0.42x, well below the sector average of 1.5x. This suggests the market is not fully pricing in the company's revenue generation potential, especially given the growth in specialty and renewables segments.
- Analyst Consensus is Buy: With a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.33, analysts are optimistic. The high target of $60.00 implies 43.9% upside from the current price, indicating significant potential if the company executes on its strategy.
- Strong Relative Strength: Relative strength over 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year periods are all strongly positive (25.98%, 32.97%, 91.10%, and 127.25% respectively). This indicates the stock is consistently outperforming the market, a sign of sustained momentum.
Bearish
- Stock Trades Above Average Target: The current price of $41.69 is 7.5% above the average analyst target of $38.80, implying a -6.9% downside. This suggests the stock may have run ahead of fundamentals and could be vulnerable to a pullback.
- Extremely High Forward PE: The forward PE ratio of 99.3x is extremely elevated, indicating that the market is pricing in substantial future earnings growth. Any disappointment in earnings could lead to a sharp de-rating.
- Inconsistent Profitability: The company reported a net loss of -$37.3 million in Q4 2025, following a large gain in Q3 2025 (EPS of $3.61). This volatility in earnings makes it difficult to value the company and increases risk.
- Negative Gross Margin in Q4: Gross margin in Q4 2025 was -0.29%, a sharp deterioration from the 34.7% in Q3 2025. This indicates significant operational challenges and margin pressure, which could persist.
CLMT Technical Analysis
Calumet's stock has exhibited a powerful sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +143.2%, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500's +16.0% return. The current price of $41.69 sits near the upper end of its 52-week range, at approximately 92% of the distance from the 52-week low of $12.94 to the high of $45.20, indicating strong momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests the stock may be approaching overbought conditions. The 6-month price change of +97.3% further underscores the persistent bullish trend, with the stock trading well above its historical averages.
Beta
0.71
0.71x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-22.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$13-$45
Price range past year
Annual Return
+164.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CLMT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.8% | +2.4% |
| 3m | +23.1% | +4.6% |
| 6m | +56.7% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +164.8% | +21.4% |
| ytd | +101.9% | +13.4% |
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CLMT Fundamental Analysis
Calumet's revenue trajectory shows modest growth, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting revenue of $1.04 billion, up 9.4% year-over-year from $949.5 million in Q4 2024. However, this growth is inconsistent, as the company experienced a significant revenue spike in Q3 2025 ($1.08 billion) followed by a sequential decline, and the trailing twelve-month revenue stands at approximately $4.14 billion. The revenue mix is led by Specialty Products and Solutions at $680.4 million, followed by Montana/Renewables at $294.2 million and Performance Brands at $68.7 million, indicating the specialty segment is the primary growth driver, while the renewables segment is gaining traction. The overall growth trend is positive but volatile, reflecting the cyclical nature of the energy industry and the company's ongoing strategic transition.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+9.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-0.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$56600000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CLMT Overvalued?
Given that Calumet's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$0.02), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, and it currently stands at 0.42x, which is significantly below the sector average of 1.5x, indicating a potential undervaluation. The forward PE ratio of 99.3x, however, suggests the market is pricing in substantial future earnings growth, as analysts expect EPS to turn positive and reach $3.57 in the coming year. This wide gap between trailing losses and forward profitability highlights the market's optimism about the company's strategic pivot, but it also implies high execution risk.
PE
-50.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~19x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. The company has a negative shareholders' equity, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of -3.36, indicating high leverage and potential solvency concerns. Interest expenses are significant, totaling $50.8 million in Q4 2025, which weighs on profitability. The company's earnings are highly volatile, swinging from a net loss of -$37.3 million in Q4 2025 to a net income of $313.4 million in Q3 2025, reflecting exposure to fluctuating crack spreads and operational disruptions. The negative gross margin of -0.29% in Q4 2025 highlights margin instability, and the company's reliance on continued growth to justify its valuation is a key risk.