Carlisle Companies
CSL
$335.24
+1.67%
Carlisle Companies Inc. is a diversified industrial manufacturer specializing in single-ply roofing systems, insulation, and building envelope solutions for the commercial construction industry, operating through its Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies segments. As a market leader in the U.S. commercial roofing market, Carlisle is recognized for its premium EPDM, TPO, and PVC membrane products, with a strong brand and a 50-year track record of dividend increases. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic focus on capital allocation and margin expansion, alongside recent speculation of a potential acquisition of Owens Corning, which has injected uncertainty and growth expectations into the stock's outlook.…
CSL
Carlisle Companies
$335.24
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CSL Today?
Based on the analysis, CSL is rated a 'Buy' with a thesis that the stock is undervalued relative to its forward earnings potential and analyst targets. The consensus rating is 'Buy' with an average target of $411.88, implying a 16.9% upside. The company's strong market position, 50-year dividend streak, and potential acquisition synergies support this view.
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CSL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock's valuation is attractive, but recent operational performance is weak. The potential acquisition adds uncertainty. If revenue growth resumes and margins stabilize, the stock could re-rate higher. Conversely, continued declines could lead to further downside. The stance would upgrade to bullish if Q2 2026 shows revenue growth and margin expansion, and downgrade to bearish if the acquisition fails and revenue declines persist.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Carlisle Companies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $411.88 and implied upside of +22.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$411.88
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+22.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$340 - $475
Analyst target range
Carlisle is covered by 8 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 2.2, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $411.88, implying an upside of 16.9% from the current price of $352.14. The distribution includes 5 Buy/Outperform ratings, 2 Hold ratings, and 1 Sell rating, reflecting a generally bullish sentiment but with some caution. The target range spans from a low of $340.00 to a high of $475.00, with the high target suggesting a 34.9% upside, likely assuming successful integration of Owens Corning and margin expansion, while the low target implies a 3.4% downside, possibly pricing in continued revenue declines or integration risks. Recent ratings actions have been mostly reaffirmations, with no downgrades, indicating stable analyst conviction.
Bulls vs Bears: CSL Investment Factors
Carlisle presents a mixed picture: strong long-term fundamentals and attractive valuation versus near-term operational challenges and market underperformance. The bull case rests on the stock's low forward PE, analyst optimism, and potential acquisition synergies, while the bear case highlights revenue decline, margin compression, and high leverage. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger given the recent earnings miss and negative price momentum, but the valuation discount and analyst targets provide a compelling risk/reward for patient investors. The key tension is whether the revenue decline is temporary or signals a structural slowdown, which will be resolved by upcoming quarterly results and the outcome of the Owens Corning bid.
Bullish
- Attractive forward valuation: CSL trades at a forward PE of 14.62x, well below the industry average of 22x, implying a 33.5% discount. This suggests the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings, with consensus EPS estimates of $30.85 for the next year, representing a 26.7% growth over trailing earnings.
- Strong analyst consensus and upside: The consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean score of 2.2, and the average price target of $411.88 implies a 16.9% upside from the current price of $352.14. The high target of $475 suggests a 34.9% potential gain, reflecting optimism about the Owens Corning acquisition and margin expansion.
- Proven long-term capital allocation: Carlisle has increased its dividend for 50 consecutive years, a testament to its disciplined capital allocation. This has driven 15.7% annualized returns since 1990, making it a reliable compounder for long-term investors.
- Solid profitability and cash flow: Despite a revenue decline, CSL maintains a net margin of 14.8% and operating margin of 19.9% (TTM). Free cash flow is strong at $924.8 million, supporting continued dividends and potential acquisitions.
Bearish
- Revenue decline and margin pressure: Q1 2026 revenue fell 3.99% YoY to $1,052.1 million, breaking a growth streak. Gross margin contracted to 34.52% from 35.20%, and net income dropped to $127.7 million from $143.3 million, indicating cost inflation and pricing headwinds.
- Significant underperformance vs. market: CSL's 1-year price change is -10.16%, while the S&P 500 gained 18.65%, resulting in a relative strength of -28.81%. The stock is in a downtrend, trading at 81.3% of its 52-week range, suggesting persistent weakness.
- High leverage and debt burden: Debt-to-equity ratio is 1.60, indicating substantial leverage. Interest expense in Q1 2026 was $28.3 million, which could strain earnings if rates remain high or if the Owens Corning deal requires additional debt.
- Uncertainty from potential acquisition: The Owens Corning acquisition is far from certain, and integration risks could distract management and dilute shareholder value. The market has reacted negatively to the news, with the stock dropping from recent highs.
CSL Technical Analysis
Carlisle's stock is currently in a broad downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -10.16%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% gain over the same period. The stock trades at $352.14, which is 81.3% of its 52-week range (low of $293.43, high of $432.91), positioning it closer to the lower end of its yearly range, suggesting a potential value opportunity or a sign of persistent weakness. The stock's beta of 0.835 indicates it is less volatile than the broader market, but its relative strength over the past year is -28.81%, highlighting substantial underperformance.
Beta
0.83
0.83x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$293-$433
Price range past year
Annual Return
-14.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CSL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -12.4% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -2.5% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -1.8% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -14.5% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +2.1% | +12.1% |
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CSL Fundamental Analysis
In the most recent quarter (Q1 2026), Carlisle reported revenue of $1,052.1 million, a 3.99% decline year-over-year, breaking a streak of growth seen in prior quarters (Q2 2025: $1,449.5 million, Q3 2025: $1,346.9 million). The revenue decline was driven by a 4.0% drop in Carlisle Construction Materials segment sales, partially offset by growth in Weatherproofing Technologies. Net income for Q1 2026 was $127.7 million, down from $143.3 million in Q1 2025, reflecting margin pressure. Gross margin contracted to 34.52% from 35.20% in the year-ago quarter, while operating margin fell to 17.14% from 16.75%, indicating cost inflation and pricing headwinds.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-4.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
34.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$924800000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CSL Overvalued?
Given Carlisle's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 18.52x, while the forward PE is 14.62x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 26.7% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about a recovery in earnings, likely driven by cost-cutting and potential synergies from the Owens Corning acquisition. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (based on sector data), Carlisle trades at a 15.8% discount, which may be justified by its recent revenue decline and margin compression. Historically, Carlisle's PE has ranged from 6.6x (Q2 2024) to 28.4x (Q1 2023), with the current 18.5x sitting near the middle of that band, indicating the stock is not excessively cheap or expensive relative to its own history.
PE
18.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 7x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are notable: CSL's debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60 indicates significant leverage, and interest expense of $28.3 million in Q1 2026 could pressure earnings if rates rise. The company's revenue declined 3.99% YoY in Q1 2026, and gross margin contracted to 34.52% from 35.20%, reflecting cost inflation and pricing pressure. Net income fell from $143.3 million to $127.7 million, and free cash flow, while positive at $924.8 million TTM, could be strained if the Owens Corning acquisition proceeds. Earnings volatility is high, with quarterly EPS ranging from $3.07 to $5.93, making future forecasts uncertain.