Carlisle Companies
CSL
$371.86
+3.32%
Carlisle Companies Inc. is a diversified manufacturer and supplier of building envelope products, primarily serving the commercial roofing industry through its Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies segments. As a market leader in single-ply roofing systems, the company differentiates itself through its premium EPDM, TPO, and PVC membrane offerings and a strong brand reputation in North America. The current investor narrative centers on Carlisle's strategic growth initiatives, including a reported buyout offer for Owens Corning, which has sparked speculation about potential M&A-driven expansion and its impact on future earnings. Additionally, the company is navigating a period of revenue contraction in recent quarters, with investors closely monitoring demand trends in commercial construction and the company's ability to maintain profitability amid cost pressures.…
CSL
Carlisle Companies
$371.86
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CSL Today?
We rate CSL as a Hold, as the stock offers a balanced risk/reward profile. The consensus is a Buy with an average target of $410, implying 13.9% upside, but the declining revenue and acquisition uncertainty temper enthusiasm. The forward P/E of 15.05x is reasonable, but the negative PEG ratio and high P/S suggest the market is already pricing in a recovery that may not materialize.
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CSL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock's valuation is not demanding, but the declining revenue trend and negative PEG ratio raise concerns about earnings sustainability. The potential acquisition adds upside but also significant risk. If revenue growth turns positive and the acquisition closes, the stance would upgrade to bullish. Conversely, if revenue declines accelerate or the acquisition fails, the stance would turn bearish.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Carlisle Companies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $412.14 and implied upside of +10.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$412.14
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+10.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$340 - $475
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $340.00 to a high of $475.00, with the high target implying a 32% upside and the low target suggesting a 5.5% downside from the current price. The wide spread of $135 between the low and high targets reflects significant uncertainty about the company's future, likely due to the potential Owens Corning acquisition and its impact on financials. The high target of $475 assumes successful integration of the acquisition and a return to revenue growth, while the low target of $340 prices in continued revenue declines and margin compression. The recent institutional ratings show no major downgrades, but the presence of hold ratings from Truist suggests some caution. Overall, the consensus leans bullish, but the wide target range indicates that investors should be prepared for volatility.
Bulls vs Bears: CSL Investment Factors
The bull case for CSL rests on its strong profitability, attractive forward valuation, and analyst optimism, while the bear case is driven by declining revenue, negative PEG, and acquisition uncertainty. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger given the clear revenue contraction and negative growth signals, but the potential for a successful Owens Corning acquisition could quickly shift the balance. The most critical tension is whether the revenue decline is a temporary cyclical dip or a structural issue, as this determines the validity of the forward earnings growth implied by the valuation.
Bullish
- Strong Profitability and Margins: CSL maintains a robust net margin of 14.8% and an operating margin of 19.9%, reflecting efficient cost management despite revenue headwinds. This profitability provides a cushion against cyclical downturns and supports continued shareholder returns.
- Attractive Valuation on Forward Earnings: The forward P/E of 15.05x is below the trailing P/E of 18.52x, implying expected earnings growth of ~23% over the next year. This suggests the market is pricing in a recovery, and the stock is not expensive relative to its earnings potential.
- Analyst Consensus and Target Upside: With a consensus rating of 'buy' and an average target price of $410, the stock offers a 13.9% upside from the current price of $359.92. The high target of $475 implies a 32% upside, reflecting optimism about the potential Owens Corning acquisition.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity: The current ratio of 3.09 indicates strong short-term liquidity, and the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60 is manageable for a capital-intensive manufacturer. This financial stability supports potential M&A activities and dividend sustainability.
Bearish
- Declining Revenue Trend: Revenue has declined for three consecutive quarters, with Q1 2026 down 3.99% YoY to $1,052.1 million. This deceleration signals weakening demand in commercial construction, which could persist if the cyclical downturn continues.
- Negative PEG Ratio Signals Earnings Risk: The PEG ratio of -0.48 is negative, indicating that earnings growth is expected to be negative over the next year. This contradicts the forward P/E's implied growth and raises concerns about the sustainability of current earnings levels.
- High Valuation Relative to Peers: With a P/S ratio of 2.73 and EV/EBITDA of 12.63, CSL trades at a premium to the broader construction materials sector. This premium leaves little room for error, and any earnings miss could trigger multiple compression.
- Uncertainty from Owens Corning Acquisition: The reported buyout offer for Owens Corning is far from certain and could face regulatory hurdles or integration risks. The wide analyst target range ($340-$475) reflects this uncertainty, and a failed deal could lead to a sharp sell-off.
CSL Technical Analysis
Carlisle's stock has exhibited a volatile, range-bound pattern over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +1.47% and a 52-week range of $293.43 to $432.91. The current price of $359.92 sits at approximately 46% of the 52-week range, indicating a middle-ground position that reflects neither extreme momentum nor deep value. This positioning suggests the market is in a consolidation phase, with the stock having recovered from its lows but failing to reclaim its highs, pointing to a lack of clear directional conviction.
Beta
0.84
0.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$293-$433
Price range past year
Annual Return
+5.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CSL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.4% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +4.6% | +4.7% |
| 6m | -5.9% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +5.5% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +13.2% | +11.1% |
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CSL Fundamental Analysis
Carlisle's revenue trajectory has been mixed, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $1,052.1 million, a 3.99% year-over-year decline from $1,095.8 million in Q1 2025. This marks the third consecutive quarter of declining revenue, following Q4 2025's $1,127.7 million and Q3 2025's $1,346.9 million, indicating a clear deceleration trend. The revenue decline is primarily driven by softer demand in the construction materials segment, which saw revenue of $758.1 million in the latest quarter, while the weatherproofing technologies segment contributed $294.0 million. The company's growth trajectory has turned negative, which could signal cyclical headwinds in the commercial construction market, and investors should monitor whether this is a temporary downturn or a longer-term structural issue.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-4.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
34.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$924800000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CSL Overvalued?
Given that Carlisle's net income is positive, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 18.52x, while the forward PE is 15.05x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth of approximately 23% over the next year. This gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests optimism about future profitability, likely driven by cost-cutting measures and potential M&A synergies. The PEG ratio is negative at -0.48, which is a red flag as it implies that earnings growth is expected to be negative, contradicting the forward PE's implied growth.
PE
18.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 7x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are prominent, with revenue declining for three consecutive quarters, including a 3.99% YoY drop in Q1 2026. This contraction pressures margins, though the operating margin remains healthy at 19.9%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60 indicates moderate leverage, and interest expenses of $28.3 million in Q1 2026 could become burdensome if rates stay high. Free cash flow of $924.8 million TTM provides some cushion, but continued revenue declines could erode this buffer.