WMS

Advanced Drainage Systems

$147.18

-1.41%
Apr 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) is a leading manufacturer of water management solutions, specializing in stormwater and onsite septic wastewater systems for the construction and agriculture industries. The company operates as a market leader in engineered plastic drainage products, with a distinct competitive identity built on its proprietary product portfolio and a vertically integrated manufacturing model. The current investor narrative is focused on the company's resilience amid cyclical construction markets, its ability to maintain profitability through operational efficiency, and its strategic positioning to benefit from long-term infrastructure spending trends, as evidenced by recent quarterly results showing stable revenue and robust free cash flow generation.

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WMS 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $147.18
Average Target $147.18
High Target $169.257
Low Target $125.10300000000001

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Advanced Drainage Systems's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $191.33 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$191.33

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$118 - $191

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Analyst coverage for WMS is limited, with data indicating only 5 analysts providing estimates, which suggests this is a mid-cap stock with selective institutional following rather than broad Wall Street coverage. The consensus sentiment among the recent institutional ratings is uniformly bullish, with firms like Barclays, RBC Capital, Keybanc, and Oppenheimer all maintaining 'Overweight' or 'Outperform' ratings throughout early 2026, indicating strong professional conviction in the company's fundamentals. The target price range and average are not provided in the data, so the implied upside cannot be calculated; however, the consistent 'Buy'-equivalent ratings from all covering analysts in recent months signals a belief that the recent price weakness is a buying opportunity rather than a fundamental deterioration.

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WMS Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the short term, having declined 15.13% over the past month and 7.99% over the past three months, which contrasts sharply with its positive 25.17% gain over the past year. With a current price of $137.67, the stock is trading at approximately 77% of its 52-week range ($93.92 to $179.32), indicating it has retreated significantly from recent highs and is now in the lower-middle portion of its annual band, suggesting a loss of momentum and potential oversold conditions. Recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month decline of 15.13% far exceeding the S&P 500's 4.28% drop, resulting in a relative strength of -10.85, signaling severe underperformance and bearish sentiment in the near term. The stock's beta of 1.375 confirms it is approximately 38% more volatile than the broader market, which has amplified its recent downside move. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the 52-week low of $93.92 and formidable resistance at the 52-week high of $179.32; a sustained break below the recent March low near $131.46 could signal a deeper correction toward the annual low, while reclaiming the $150 level is necessary to suggest a trend reversal. The stock's high beta and recent max drawdown of -25.04% underscore the elevated risk profile, requiring careful position sizing for investors considering entry at these levels.

Beta

1.38

1.38x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$101-$179

Price range past year

Annual Return

+42.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodWMS ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.0%+0.5%
3m-7.3%-2.1%
6m+9.8%+4.0%
1y+42.3%+29.5%
ytd-1.6%-0.4%

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WMS Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has decelerated significantly, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $693.4 million representing a mere 0.41% year-over-year increase, a stark slowdown from the stronger growth seen in prior quarters such as Q2 2026's $850.4 million. Segment data reveals the Pipe segment, contributing $339.2 million in operating income, remains the core profit driver, while the International segment posted a small operating loss of -$1.4 million, indicating geographic performance divergence. This flat revenue trajectory suggests the company is in a cyclical consolidation phase, heavily dependent on construction and agricultural end-markets. Profitability remains robust with a net income of $93.6 million for the quarter and a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $577.1 million, demonstrating strong cash conversion. The gross margin of 35.43% for the quarter, while healthy, has compressed from the 39.98% reported in the prior quarter, indicating potential pricing pressure or input cost inflation. The company's net margin stands at a solid 13.50%, supported by an operating margin of 19.75%, showcasing efficient operations despite the revenue plateau. The balance sheet is solid with a current ratio of 3.33 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.89, indicating ample liquidity and a manageable leverage profile. Return on equity is strong at 27.82%, and the substantial free cash flow yield supports the company's ability to fund growth initiatives, pay dividends (0.59% yield), and potentially engage in share repurchases without relying on external financing, underpinning financial resilience.

Quarterly Revenue

$693354000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.00%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.35%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$577089000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is WMS Overvalued?

Given the consistently positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 18.72x and a forward PE of 20.29x; the higher forward multiple suggests the market anticipates a near-term dip in earnings before a recovery, aligning with the observed revenue deceleration. Compared to sector averages implied by the provided data (though no explicit industry average is given), the valuation appears reasonable for a company with its profitability profile, but the forward PE expansion warrants caution regarding growth expectations. Historically, the stock's own PE ratio has fluctuated significantly, with a recent high of 30.06x in Q3 2026 and a low near 10.00x in mid-2022; the current trailing PE of 18.72x sits below the peak but above the trough, suggesting a mid-cycle valuation that is not excessively cheap nor expensive relative to its own history, pricing in a moderation from peak earnings power.

PE

18.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 10x~93x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure