CTRE

CareTrust REIT, Inc

$41.34

-1.10%
Jul 8, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
CareTrust REIT is a self-administered real estate investment trust that owns, acquires, finances, develops, and leases skilled nursing, seniors housing, and other healthcare-related properties across the United States. As a triple-net lease REIT, it differentiates itself by shifting property-level operating costs to tenants, providing stable, predictable cash flows with a lean corporate structure of only 43 employees. The current investor narrative centers on the company's accelerating revenue growth, driven by aggressive portfolio expansion and strong occupancy trends in skilled nursing, while the stock has rallied over 36% in the past year as the market rewards its improving fundamentals and disciplined capital allocation.

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CTRE 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $41.34
Average Target $41.34
High Target $47.54
Low Target $35.14

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CareTrust REIT, Inc's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $53.74 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$53.74

2 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

2

covering this stock

Price Range

$33 - $54

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (50%)
Sell
1 (50%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 2 analysts providing estimates, but the consensus is bullish. The average EPS estimate is $1.69, with a low of $1.36 and a high of $1.97, while the average revenue estimate is $785.1 million. The limited coverage suggests CTRE is a mid-cap stock with moderate institutional interest, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. However, the existing analysts are uniformly positive, with recent ratings from Wells Fargo (Overweight), RBC Capital (Outperform), UBS (Buy), and Jefferies (Buy) indicating strong conviction. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the forward P/E of 23.97x and estimated EPS of $1.69, the implied target is approximately $40.50, which is 3.0% below the current price of $41.76. This suggests the stock may be fairly valued near-term, but the high target of $1.97 EPS implies a potential upside to $47.20 if achieved, representing a 13.0% gain. The low target of $1.36 EPS implies a downside to $32.60, or a 21.9% decline. The wide spread between the high and low estimates (45% difference) signals high uncertainty about future earnings, likely due to the company's rapid acquisition pace and sensitivity to interest rates. The lack of a formal consensus target and limited analyst coverage means investors should rely more on fundamental trends and valuation metrics.

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CTRE Technical Analysis

CareTrust REIT is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 36.0% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $41.76 sits at 96.9% of its 52-week range ($30.21–$43.08), indicating the stock is trading near its highs and reflecting strong bullish momentum. This positioning near the top of the range suggests the market is pricing in continued positive momentum, though it also raises the risk of short-term overextension. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with the stock gaining 7.8% over the past month and 9.0% over the past three months, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of -1.25% and 13.56%. The 1-month relative strength of 9.07% confirms that CTRE is significantly outperforming the broader market in the near term. This acceleration aligns with the longer-term uptrend, reinforcing the bullish case rather than signaling a divergence. The 52-week high of $43.08 serves as immediate resistance; a breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend and likely attract further buying. Support lies near the 52-week low of $30.21, though the stock is well above that level. With a beta of 0.787, CTRE is less volatile than the overall market, meaning it offers a defensive profile with lower systematic risk, which is attractive for risk-averse investors seeking exposure to the healthcare REIT sector.

Beta

0.79

0.79x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-14.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$30-$43

Price range past year

Annual Return

+33.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCTRE ReturnS&P 500
1m+12.0%+0.8%
3m+4.9%+9.6%
6m+10.7%+7.4%
1y+33.6%+20.2%
ytd+13.9%+9.3%

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CTRE Fundamental Analysis

CareTrust REIT's revenue trajectory is accelerating strongly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $135.1 million representing a 117.1% year-over-year increase, up from $62.2 million in Q4 2024. This growth is driven by a series of acquisitions and portfolio expansion, as evidenced by the sequential revenue growth from $71.6 million in Q1 2025 to $104.3 million in Q3 2025 and then to $135.1 million in Q4 2025. The company's revenue growth is robust and accelerating, supporting a bullish investment thesis centered on scale and market share gains in healthcare real estate. Profitability is strong and improving, with net income of $111.3 million in Q4 2025, up from $52.1 million in the year-ago quarter, and a net margin of 82.4%—among the highest in the REIT sector. Gross margin stood at 58.9% in Q4 2025, reflecting the triple-net lease model's efficiency, while operating margin expanded to 64.1% from 47.0% a year earlier. The company's high margins are typical for triple-net REITs, but the magnitude underscores its operational leverage and cost discipline. The balance sheet is conservatively positioned, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.22 and a current ratio of 1.54, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months reached $379.0 million, providing strong internal funding for acquisitions and dividends. The return on equity of 7.9% is solid for a REIT, and the company's ability to generate positive free cash flow consistently reduces reliance on external financing, lowering financial risk.

Quarterly Revenue

$135052000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+117.13%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

58.93%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$379037000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Reportable Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is CTRE Overvalued?

Given that net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 23.03x, while the forward P/E is 23.97x, implying the market expects earnings to remain relatively stable. The slight premium in the forward multiple suggests modest growth expectations are already priced in. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22.0x (estimated from sector data), CTRE trades at a 4.7% premium, which is justified by its superior net margin of 82.4% versus the industry average of roughly 50-60% for healthcare REITs. The P/S ratio of 15.45x is elevated, but this is typical for high-margin REITs and reflects the company's asset-light, fee-based income model. Historically, CTRE's trailing P/E of 23.03x is near the lower end of its five-year range of 20x to 85x, suggesting the stock is not overvalued relative to its own history. The current multiple is well below the peak of 84.7x seen in mid-2024, indicating that the market's earnings expectations have become more realistic. This historical context supports the view that the stock offers a reasonable entry point, especially given the accelerating revenue growth and strong margins.

PE

23.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -1017x~617x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple