CTRE

CareTrust REIT, Inc

$41.14

+0.32%
May 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered real estate investment trust specializing in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development, and leasing of skilled nursing, seniors housing, and other healthcare-related properties. The company operates as a pure-play healthcare REIT, generating revenue primarily through triple-net lease agreements where tenants are responsible for all property-level costs. The current investor narrative centers on its position as a consolidator in the fragmented seniors housing and skilled nursing sector, with attention focused on its disciplined acquisition strategy, portfolio quality, and resilience amid demographic tailwinds from an aging population. Recent financial trends show robust revenue growth and margin expansion, positioning the REIT as a beneficiary of sustained demand for healthcare real estate.

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CTRE 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $41.14
Average Target $41.14
High Target $47.311
Low Target $34.969

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CareTrust REIT, Inc's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $53.48 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$53.48

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$33 - $53

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage appears limited, with data indicating only one analyst providing estimates, which suggests the stock may have lower institutional visibility typical of some mid-cap REITs. The consensus sentiment from recent institutional ratings, however, is decidedly bullish. In the past six months, firms including Wells Fargo, RBC Capital, UBS, Jefferies, and Keybanc have reiterated or initiated Buy, Outperform, or Overweight ratings, with one Neutral rating from Cantor Fitzgerald. BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform in January 2026. The single analyst's revenue estimate for the coming period averages $785.10 million, with a range from $754.79 million to $806.25 million. The implied EPS estimate is $1.69. The lack of a published consensus price target in the data, coupled with the low analyst count, implies higher uncertainty and less efficient price discovery. The wide revenue estimate range signals differing assumptions about the pace of the company's acquisition-fueled growth. The unanimous bullish stance from recent rating actions, however, indicates strong professional investor conviction in the near-term outlook.

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CTRE Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +42.35% and a YTD gain of +12.94%. With a current price of $41.01, it is trading at approximately 95% of its 52-week high of $43.08, indicating strong momentum but also proximity to a key resistance level that may signal potential overextension. The stock's positioning near the top of its 52-week range suggests investor optimism is largely priced in, though a decisive breakout above $43.08 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. Recent short-term momentum is positive but shows signs of divergence from the broader market; the stock gained 6.91% over the past month, outperforming the SPY's 5.49% gain, yet it underperformed over the last three months with a gain of only 2.40% versus the SPY's 7.73% rise. This 3-month underperformance, coupled with a relative strength reading of -5.33, suggests the stock may be consolidating or experiencing a temporary pullback within its longer-term uptrend, potentially offering a entry point for momentum investors. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $27.81, while immediate resistance sits at the 52-week high of $43.08. A breakdown below the recent low of $36.10 from March 20th would signal a potential trend reversal. The stock's beta of 0.789 indicates it is approximately 21% less volatile than the broader market, which is notable for a REIT and suggests it may offer a more defensive profile during market downturns, though its recent price swings show it is not immune to sector-specific volatility.

Beta

0.79

0.79x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-12.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$28-$43

Price range past year

Annual Return

+45.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCTRE ReturnS&P 500
1m+10.3%+4.4%
3m+2.7%+9.3%
6m+12.1%+10.5%
1y+45.3%+28.8%
ytd+13.3%+9.3%

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CTRE Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust and accelerating; Q4 2025 revenue reached $135.05 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 117.13% compared to Q4 2024. Sequentially, revenue grew from $71.65 million in Q1 2025 to $135.05 million in Q4 2025, indicating a strong multi-quarter expansion driven by acquisitions and organic lease escalations. This trajectory underscores the company's successful external growth strategy and the underlying demand strength in its healthcare property portfolio. Profitability is solid and margins are expanding significantly. Net income for Q4 2025 was $111.29 million, yielding a net margin of 82.41%, while the gross margin stood at 58.93%. Comparing to the prior-year Q4, net income more than doubled from $52.14 million, and the net margin expanded from 83.82% to 82.41%, demonstrating high and stable profitability. The operating margin for the latest quarter was 64.10%, reflecting the efficiency of its triple-net lease model where most operating costs are passed to tenants. The balance sheet is healthy with a conservative leverage profile. The debt-to-equity ratio is a low 0.22, indicating minimal financial risk and ample capacity for future acquisitions. Free cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis is $379.04 million, providing strong internal funding for dividends and growth. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.94%, and the current ratio is 1.54, showing sufficient liquidity. The combination of strong cash generation, low debt, and high margins paints a picture of a financially resilient company.

Quarterly Revenue

$135052000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+1.17%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.58%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$379037000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Reportable Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is CTRE Overvalued?

Given the company's substantial positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 22.97x, while the forward PE is slightly higher at 24.15x. The modest premium on the forward multiple suggests the market is pricing in continued, albeit perhaps more moderate, earnings growth relative to the recent explosive trajectory. Compared to sector averages, CareTrust trades at a significant premium. Its trailing PE of 22.97x is above typical REIT averages, which often range in the mid-teens, though a direct industry average is not provided in the data. The premium is likely justified by its superior growth profile, high margins (net margin of 67.26%), and focused strategy in a defensive healthcare niche, which may command a scarcity value among pure-play healthcare REITs. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 22.97x sits well above its own historical range observed in the provided data, where it has fluctuated between negative values during periods of loss and highs in the 80s during low-earnings periods. Being near the upper end of its own historical valuation band suggests the market has high expectations for future performance, leaving little room for error. Any disappointment in growth execution could lead to multiple compression.

PE

23.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -1017x~617x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

17.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple