VTR

Ventas, Inc.

$84.96

+0.01%
Apr 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Ventas, Inc. is a leading healthcare real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a diversified portfolio of nearly 1,400 properties across senior housing, medical office buildings, hospitals, life science facilities, and skilled nursing/post-acute care centers, with a growing international presence in Canada and the United Kingdom. The company is a major player in the healthcare real estate sector, distinguished by its diversified, in-place portfolio that provides exposure to multiple sub-sectors of the essential healthcare property market. The current investor narrative is focused on the company's recovery and growth trajectory within the senior housing segment, which is its largest revenue driver, as it navigates post-pandemic occupancy normalization and benefits from favorable demographic tailwinds, while also managing the financial performance of its other healthcare property types.

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VTR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $84.96
Average Target $84.96
High Target $97.70399999999998
Low Target $72.216

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ventas, Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $110.45 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$110.45

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$68 - $110

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage appears limited in the provided dataset, with only one analyst providing estimates for revenue and EPS, though the institutional ratings data shows multiple firms maintain active coverage. The consensus sentiment among the recently rating firms is overwhelmingly bullish, with 7 out of the last 10 ratings being Buy/Overweight/Outperform equivalents, 2 at Sector Perform, and none at Sell. The average estimated EPS for the covered period is $1.84, with a range from $1.78 to $1.91, while estimated revenue averages $7.76 billion. The target price range is not explicitly provided in the data, but the institutional ratings pattern indicates strong bullish conviction among covering analysts, with recent actions from firms like JP Morgan, Mizuho, Citigroup, RBC Capital, and Keybanc all maintaining positive ratings. The absence of downgrades in the recent data and the consistency of overweight/outperform ratings suggest analysts believe in the company's recovery trajectory and demographic tailwinds. The wide dispersion in historical PE ratios (from negative to 160x) reflected in the data signals that analyst views and market pricing have experienced high uncertainty in the past, though current consensus appears more uniformly positive.

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VTR Technical Analysis

Ventas is in a sustained uptrend, evidenced by a 1-year price change of +20.00% and a 6-month gain of +19.37%. The stock is currently trading near the top of its 52-week range, with a recent close of $83.27 sitting just 5.8% below its 52-week high of $88.37, indicating strong momentum but also potential for near-term resistance. This positioning near the highs suggests the market is pricing in a positive fundamental outlook, though it leaves limited room for error before encountering technical selling pressure. Recent momentum shows a divergence, with the stock up 7.68% over the past three months but down -3.73% over the past month, indicating a short-term pullback within the longer-term uptrend. This 1-month decline contrasts with the strong 1-year performance and could signal a healthy consolidation or profit-taking phase after the significant rally from the 52-week low of $60.15. The stock's beta of 0.768 indicates it has been about 23% less volatile than the broader market over this period, which is notable given the sector's typical sensitivity to interest rates. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $88.37 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $60.15 as major support. A decisive breakout above $88.37 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend and potentially open the path to new highs, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation range around $81-$82 could test deeper support levels. The stock's below-market beta of 0.768 suggests it has exhibited lower volatility than the S&P 500, which is an important consideration for risk-averse investors in the REIT space, though recent price action shows it has significantly outperformed the market with a 3-month relative strength of +11.68% against the SPY's -4.0% decline.

Beta

0.77

0.77x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-10.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$62-$88

Price range past year

Annual Return

+29.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodVTR ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.0%+0.5%
3m+13.4%-2.1%
6m+25.4%+4.0%
1y+29.5%+29.5%
ytd+9.9%-0.4%

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VTR Fundamental Analysis

Ventas is demonstrating solid revenue growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.57 billion representing a 21.67% year-over-year increase. This growth has been consistent through 2025, with quarterly revenues climbing from $1.36 billion in Q1 to the current $1.57 billion in Q4. The primary growth driver is the Senior Living Operations segment, which generated $1.19 billion in the latest period, significantly outpacing the Outpatient Medical portfolio at $449.5 million and Triple Net Leased properties at $132.7 million. This accelerating revenue trajectory reflects improving fundamentals in the senior housing market and supports the bullish investment case. The company is profitable but with modest margins, reporting Q4 2025 net income of $70.2 million and an operating margin of 14.17%. However, the gross margin figure of -5.90% is misleading for a REIT due to accounting treatment of property operating expenses; the more relevant metric is the net margin of 4.31%. Profitability has improved year-over-year, with Q4 2025 net income up 23.5% from $56.8 million in Q4 2024, and the quarterly trend shows generally stable to slightly expanding operating margins throughout 2025, indicating effective cost management alongside revenue growth. Balance sheet health is reasonable for a REIT, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06 and a current ratio of 0.96. More importantly, the company generates substantial cash flow, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.32 billion and an ROE of 2.01%. The free cash flow comfortably covers the dividend, as evidenced by the operating cash flow of $505.4 million in Q4 alone versus dividend payments of $225.7 million. The debt level is manageable given the stable cash flows from healthcare real estate, though the ROE remains relatively low, typical for capital-intensive REITs during expansion phases.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.6B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.21%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

-1.35%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.3B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is VTR Overvalued?

Given Ventas's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings ratio. The trailing PE ratio is exceptionally high at 140.08x, while the forward PE is 87.04x, based on estimated EPS of $1.84. The significant gap between trailing and forward multiples indicates the market expects substantial earnings growth, with forward earnings implying a 38% reduction in the PE ratio as profitability normalizes. Compared to sector averages, Ventas trades at a substantial premium. The trailing PE of 140.08x is dramatically higher than typical REIT valuations, though this is partly distorted by temporarily depressed earnings. More relevant for REITs, the EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.30x and Price/Sales ratio of 6.04x are elevated compared to many traditional REITs, suggesting the market is pricing in superior growth prospects from the healthcare real estate sector and Ventas's specific portfolio quality and demographic tailwinds. Historically, the current valuation appears stretched. The trailing PE of 140.08x is near the top of its historical range observed in recent quarters, which has fluctuated between negative values during pandemic-impacted periods and peaks around 160x. The current Price/Book ratio of 2.81x is also above the historical average visible in the data, which has typically ranged between 1.7x and 2.9x. Trading near historical highs on multiple metrics suggests the market has priced in a robust recovery scenario, leaving little margin for disappointment.

PE

140.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -302x~3195x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

21.3x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure