WELL

Welltower

$207.59

+0.61%
Apr 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Welltower Inc. is a leading real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in healthcare infrastructure, owning and operating a diversified portfolio of approximately 2,900 properties across senior housing, medical office buildings, and skilled nursing/post-acute care facilities, primarily in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The company is a dominant market leader in the healthcare REIT sector, distinguished by its scale, high-quality asset base, and strategic focus on demographic-driven demand in aging populations. The current investor narrative centers on the stock's role as a leveraged play on a potential commercial real estate recovery, particularly in the senior housing segment, with recent attention fueled by expectations that Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could alleviate financing pressures and ignite a rebound in property valuations and operational performance.

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WELL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $207.59
Average Target $207.59
High Target $238.7285
Low Target $176.4515

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Welltower's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $269.87 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$269.87

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$166 - $270

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Analyst coverage for Welltower is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this large-cap stock may have less consistent institutional research coverage than peers, which can contribute to periods of higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The consensus leans bullish based on estimated growth, with an average EPS estimate of $5.26 for the coming period, representing a massive increase from the recent quarterly EPS of $0.14, and an average revenue estimate of $15.98 billion. A formal consensus recommendation and average price target are not provided in the data, making a precise upside/downside calculation impossible.

The target range implied by EPS estimates is wide, with a low estimate of $4.72 and a high of $6.01, a spread of over 27%. The high estimate assumes a successful execution of the senior housing recovery story and significant margin expansion, while the low estimate likely factors in potential headwinds like slower occupancy gains or persistent cost inflation. Recent institutional rating actions from 2024 show a mix of 'Buy', 'Overweight', 'Sector Perform', and 'In-Line' ratings, with one notable downgrade from Wells Fargo from 'Overweight' to 'Equal Weight' in October 2024, suggesting some analysts have taken a more cautious stance ahead of the anticipated recovery.

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WELL Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend, having gained 32.17% over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader market's 29.8% return. As of the latest data, the price of $202.33 positions it at approximately 93% of its 52-week high of $216.43, indicating the stock is trading near its recent peak and reflects strong investor momentum, though it also suggests potential vulnerability to profit-taking or overextension. The 1-month price change of -2.73% contrasts with the positive 1-year trend, signaling a recent short-term pullback or consolidation after the strong run, a divergence that may represent a healthy pause rather than a reversal, especially given the stock's positive relative strength of 1.01 against the S&P 500 over the same period.

Recent momentum shows a deceleration from the medium-term trend, with the 3-month return at 8.23% compared to the 1-year gain of 32.17%. The 1-month decline of -2.73% occurred while the S&P 500 fell -3.74%, indicating the stock demonstrated relative resilience (RSI data not available). This short-term weakness likely represents a consolidation phase following the sharp rally from the February 2026 high of $215.48, as the market digests gains and awaits new catalysts, such as further clarity on interest rates.

Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $130.29, with immediate support likely forming around the recent March 2026 low near $195. Resistance is clearly defined at the 52-week high of $216.43. A decisive breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend and could target new highs, while a breakdown below the $195 support area might indicate a deeper correction is underway. With a beta of 0.82, Welltower exhibits lower volatility than the broader market, which is typical for a large-cap REIT, suggesting its price movements, while significant, are generally less dramatic than the overall equity market, a factor for risk-adjusted portfolio construction.

Beta

0.82

0.82x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-12.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$139-$216

Price range past year

Annual Return

+46.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodWELL ReturnS&P 500
1m+1.1%+0.5%
3m+11.6%-2.1%
6m+25.1%+4.0%
1y+46.4%+29.5%
ytd+11.0%-0.4%

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WELL Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $3.13 billion, representing a substantial 41.2% year-over-year increase. This growth is part of a clear multi-quarter uptrend, as quarterly revenue has climbed sequentially from $2.39 billion in Q1 2025 to the current $3.13 billion. The primary driver appears to be the company's core property operations, though specific segment data is limited to a 'Management Service' line of $2.06 billion; the strong overall growth trajectory underscores recovering fundamentals in the healthcare real estate sector, particularly in senior housing occupancy and rental rates.

Profitability is positive but showed significant quarter-to-quarter volatility in 2025. Q4 2025 net income was $96.4 million, yielding a net margin of 3.1%, which is a sharp decline from the Q3 2025 net income of $280.6 million and net margin of 10.7%. Gross margin for Q4 2025 was 38.3%, slightly down from 39.9% in Q3. This compression in Q4, where EBITDA was negative -$459 million compared to positive $979 million in Q3, suggests the quarter included significant one-time or non-cash charges (potentially impairments or revaluations), making the underlying operating profit trend more stable than the bottom-line figures imply.

The balance sheet and cash flow position is strong. The company maintains a healthy current ratio of 5.34 and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, indicating ample liquidity and a manageable leverage profile for a REIT. Most notably, trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a robust $2.85 billion. This substantial FCF generation, coupled with an ROE of 2.22%, demonstrates the company's ability to fund operations and growth internally, reducing reliance on external capital markets—a critical advantage in a higher interest rate environment.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.1B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.41%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.38%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.8B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is WELL Overvalued?

Given that net income is positive ($96.4M in latest quarter), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is exceptionally high at 131.9x, while the forward PE is 61.5x based on analyst estimates. This wide gap between trailing and forward multiples indicates the market is pricing in a significant recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, expecting net income to more than double from current levels to justify the forward multiple.

Compared to sector averages, Welltower trades at a substantial premium. Its forward PE of 61.5x is dramatically higher than typical REIT valuations, which often range in the teens to low-20s. Similarly, its Price-to-Sales ratio of 11.6x and EV/EBITDA of 60.5x are elevated. This premium is likely justified by the market assigning a growth multiple to Welltower's superior demographic positioning and expected earnings acceleration in the healthcare property sector, as opposed to more stable, slower-growing traditional REITs.

Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 131.9x is near the top of its own historical range observed in the provided data, which has seen quarterly PEs fluctuate from negative values during pandemic stress to over 300x during low-earnings periods. Trading near historical highs on a PE basis signals that the market has already priced in a very optimistic earnings recovery scenario. Any disappointment in the pace of that recovery could lead to multiple compression, given the lofty expectations embedded in the current valuation.

PE

131.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -2125x~344x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

60.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure