DVA

DaVita

$235.44

+0.50%
Jul 24, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
DaVita Inc. is a leading provider of kidney dialysis services in the United States, operating over 3,200 facilities and treating approximately 300,000 patients annually. With a market share of about 35%, it is the dominant player in the U.S. dialysis market, serving a patient population that is heavily reliant on government reimbursement, primarily Medicare. The current investor narrative centers on DaVita's ability to navigate regulatory and reimbursement dynamics, with recent attention on its strong revenue growth and margin expansion, as well as the potential impact of policy changes on its commercial insurance mix, which drives a disproportionate share of profits.

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DVA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $235.44
Average Target $235.44
High Target $270.76
Low Target $200.12

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on DaVita's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $208.57 and implied upside of -11.4% versus the current price.

Average Target

$208.57

0 analysts

Implied Upside

-11.4%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$145 - $270

Analyst target range

DaVita is covered by 7 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Hold' (mean rating 2.75 on a 5-point scale). The average target price is $208.57, implying a downside of 12.0% from the current price of $236.97. The distribution shows 2 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell, reflecting a cautious sentiment. The average target suggests that analysts see limited upside at current levels, likely due to valuation concerns or regulatory overhangs. The target price range spans from a low of $145.00 to a high of $270.00. The high target of $270.00 assumes a 13.9% upside and likely reflects optimism about margin expansion and favorable reimbursement changes. The low target of $145.00 implies a 38.8% downside, pricing in potential regulatory cuts or competitive losses. The wide spread of $125.00 between low and high indicates high uncertainty among analysts. Recent ratings actions show a mix of holds and buys, with Deutsche Bank upgrading from Hold to Buy in May 2026, while others maintained their ratings. This suggests that while some analysts see value, the overall consensus remains cautious.

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DVA Technical Analysis

DaVita's stock is in a sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +65.27%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18.35% gain. The current price of $236.97 sits at 98.9% of its 52-week range (high $239.64, low $101.00), indicating strong momentum and near-term overextension, but also reflecting robust investor confidence. The stock has rallied from its 52-week low of $101.00, representing a gain of over 134% from that level, suggesting a powerful recovery trend. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with 1-month and 3-month price changes of +12.53% and +60.21%, respectively, both outpacing the S&P 500's 0.31% and 4.67% gains. The 1-month relative strength of +12.22% confirms strong near-term buying pressure, while the 3-month relative strength of +55.54% indicates that the stock is in a powerful uptrend that has recently intensified. The 52-week high of $239.64 acts as immediate resistance, while the 52-week low of $101.00 provides a distant support level. A breakout above $239.64 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, potentially targeting new highs. The stock's beta of 0.882 indicates it is less volatile than the market, which is unusual given its recent sharp gains, but suggests that the move is driven by company-specific factors rather than broad market risk.

Beta

0.88

0.88x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-31.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$101-$240

Price range past year

Annual Return

+62.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodDVA ReturnS&P 500
1m+10.5%+0.8%
3m+55.0%+3.5%
6m+117.8%+7.2%
1y+62.6%+16.5%
ytd+105.6%+8.4%

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DVA Fundamental Analysis

DaVita's revenue trajectory is steadily growing, with Q1 2026 revenue of $3.416 billion, up 5.96% year-over-year from $3.224 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent sequential growth, with revenue increasing from $3.180 billion in Q2 2024 to $3.620 billion in Q4 2025, indicating a healthy expansion. The U.S. dialysis and related lab services segment generated $10.123 billion in the latest fiscal year, representing the core driver of growth. This steady revenue growth supports the investment case, as it reflects stable patient volumes and pricing power in a regulated environment. The company is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $197.53 million and a gross margin of 31.42%. Gross margins have been relatively stable, ranging from 28.28% in Q4 2025 to 33.08% in Q2 2025, indicating consistent cost management. Operating margin improved to 14.11% in Q1 2026 from 13.62% in Q1 2025, reflecting operational efficiency gains. Net income has grown from $162.92 million in Q1 2025 to $197.53 million in Q1 2026, a 21.2% increase, demonstrating improving profitability. DaVita's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -23.12, which is negative due to negative shareholders' equity, a common characteristic in highly leveraged companies. However, the company generated strong free cash flow of $218.81 million in Q1 2026 and $1.493 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, providing ample liquidity for debt service and reinvestment. The current ratio of 1.29 indicates adequate short-term liquidity, while the negative ROE of -114.7% is a result of negative equity, but the company's operating performance remains solid.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.4B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+6.0%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

31.4%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

U S Dialysis And Related Lab Services

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Valuation Analysis: Is DVA Overvalued?

Given that DaVita has positive net income, we lead with the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 11.69x, while the forward P/E is 13.76x, implying that the market expects earnings growth to moderate. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that the market is pricing in a slight deceleration in earnings, which is consistent with the company's mature industry. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22.0x (estimated), DaVita's trailing P/E of 11.69x represents a 47% discount, indicating that the stock is undervalued relative to its peers. This discount may be justified by the regulatory risks and heavy government reimbursement exposure, but it also suggests potential upside if the company can sustain its growth and margins. Historically, DaVita's trailing P/E has ranged from 8.4x (Q2 2022) to 18.7x (Q1 2025). The current 11.69x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting that the stock is trading at a discount to its own history. This could indicate a value opportunity, but it may also reflect persistent concerns about reimbursement headwinds and competitive pressures.

PE

11.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 8x~19x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

9.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple