Equifax
EFX
$177.12
+1.73%
Equifax, Incorporated is a leading global data, analytics, and technology company that provides consumer credit reporting, credit scoring, and workforce solutions to businesses and consumers. As one of the three major credit bureaus in the United States, alongside Experian and TransUnion, Equifax holds a critical position in the financial services ecosystem, with its credit reports and scores underpinning lending decisions across the economy. The company is currently navigating a period of significant transformation, driven by its investments in AI and cloud-based data platforms, while also facing headwinds from a volatile macroeconomic environment that has impacted mortgage and auto lending volumes. Investor attention is focused on the company's ability to sustain revenue growth through its Workforce Solutions segment and international expansion, while managing the cyclicality of its core credit reporting business.…
EFX
Equifax
$177.12
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy EFX Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate EFX as a Buy. The consensus analyst rating is Buy with an average target of $210.52, implying 21.9% upside. The thesis is that Equifax's accelerating revenue growth (14.4% YoY) and strong free cash flow ($1.139B TTM) will drive earnings recovery, justifying the forward PE of 17x. Key supports include the dominant market position, improving margins, and analyst optimism. However, the high debt and macro sensitivity are risks. This Buy would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth falls below 10% or if the stock fails to hold above $150.75 (52-week low). The stock is currently fairly valued relative to its history, but undervalued relative to its growth potential.
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EFX 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The accelerating revenue growth and strong cash flow support a positive outlook, but the high debt and macro sensitivity temper conviction. If the company can sustain double-digit growth and improve margins, the stock is likely to re-rate higher. A downgrade would occur if revenue growth decelerates below 10% or if the stock breaks below $150.75.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Equifax's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $210.52 and implied upside of +18.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$210.52
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$179 - $245
Analyst target range
Equifax is covered by 21 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 1.83 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $210.52, implying an upside of 21.9% from the current price of $172.62. The distribution of ratings is bullish, with no Sell ratings and a majority of Buy or Outperform ratings, as evidenced by recent actions from UBS, Needham, and Mizuho, all maintaining positive stances. The target price range spans from a low of $179.00 to a high of $245.00, with the low target still representing a 3.7% upside, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees limited downside. The high target of $245.00 implies a 41.9% upside, reflecting optimism about the company's AI-driven growth initiatives and potential for multiple expansion. The relatively narrow spread between the low and high targets (approximately 37% of the average) suggests a moderate level of conviction among analysts, with the consensus pointing to a recovery in the stock price over the next 12 months.
Bulls vs Bears: EFX Investment Factors
Equifax presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and analyst optimism are offset by a persistent downtrend and high debt. The bull case is supported by accelerating revenue (14.4% YoY) and a consensus Buy rating with 21.9% upside, while the bear case highlights the stock's 28.1% decline and premium valuation. The most critical tension is whether the company's AI-driven growth initiatives can overcome macro headwinds and justify the forward PE of 17x. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls due to the strong analyst backing and improving fundamentals, but the stock's price action warrants caution.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.4% YoY to $1.649B, up from 7.2% growth in Q1 2025, indicating strong momentum in Workforce Solutions and International segments.
- Analyst Consensus is Buy: With 21 analysts, the consensus is Buy (mean rating 1.83) and the average price target of $210.52 implies 21.9% upside from the current price of $172.62.
- Strong Free Cash Flow: TTM free cash flow is $1.139B, providing ample liquidity for debt service, dividends, and strategic investments.
- Dominant Market Position: As one of the three major U.S. credit bureaus, Equifax benefits from high barriers to entry and essential services to lenders, underpinning stable revenue streams.
Bearish
- Stock in Downtrend: EFX is down 28.1% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500's +18.2% gain, and the price sits near the lower end of its 52-week range.
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity is 1.11, and the current ratio is 0.60, indicating potential liquidity pressure and reliance on debt financing.
- Macro Sensitivity: With a beta of 1.316, EFX is more volatile than the market, and its credit reporting business is sensitive to mortgage and auto lending volumes, which are cyclical.
- Valuation Premium to Peers: The forward PE of 17.0x is at a premium to the broader market, and the PEG ratio of 4.12 suggests the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate.
EFX Technical Analysis
Equifax's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with the price having fallen 28.1% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 18.2% over the same period. The current price of $172.62 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 63% of the range between the low of $150.75 and the high of $271.84, indicating that the stock is trading closer to its lows than its highs. This positioning suggests that the market has priced in substantial negative sentiment, and the stock may be approaching a value opportunity, though the persistent downtrend warrants caution against catching a falling knife.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$151-$272
Price range past year
Annual Return
-27.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | EFX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.9% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +2.3% | +5.1% |
| 6m | -7.3% | +13.8% |
| 1y | -27.2% | +22.2% |
| ytd | -17.2% | +13.1% |
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EFX Fundamental Analysis
Equifax's revenue has shown resilience, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $1.6489 billion, a 14.4% increase year-over-year, accelerating from the 7.2% growth seen in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by the Workforce Solutions segment, which generated $683.1 million in revenue, and the International segment at $360.2 million, while the US Consumer Information Solutions segment contributed $605.6 million. The company's profitability remains solid, with a gross margin of 53.5% in Q1 2026, up from 54.5% in the year-ago quarter, and an operating margin of 17.4%, slightly down from 16.4% in Q1 2025. Net income for Q1 2026 was $171.5 million, with a net margin of 10.4%, reflecting a stable profitability profile despite ongoing investments in technology and data infrastructure.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.6B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
53.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is EFX Overvalued?
Given Equifax's positive net income, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 40.5x, while the forward PE is 17.0x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. This wide gap suggests that analysts anticipate a substantial recovery in earnings, likely driven by margin expansion and revenue growth. Compared to the industry average, Equifax's forward PE of 17.0x is at a premium to the broader market, but this is justified by its dominant market position and consistent cash flow generation. Historically, Equifax's PE has ranged from approximately 27.9x to 73.2x over the past five years, with the current trailing PE of 40.5x sitting near the middle of this range, suggesting that the stock is not excessively overvalued relative to its own history, though the forward PE implies a more optimistic outlook.
PE
40.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 28x~73x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
17.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.11 and a current ratio of 0.60, indicating potential liquidity constraints. The company's operating margin of 17.4% is stable, but net margin of 10.4% is thin, leaving limited buffer for cost increases. Additionally, the trailing PE of 40.5x is elevated, and if earnings growth fails to materialize, the stock could face de-rating. The dividend payout ratio of 35.3% is sustainable, but the yield of 0.87% is low, offering little income support.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk from high debt (D/E 1.11) and low current ratio (0.60), which could strain liquidity. 2) Macro risk from sensitivity to interest rates and lending volumes, as seen in the 28.1% decline over the past year. 3) Competitive risk from fintechs like Upstart, which are using AI to disrupt traditional credit scoring. 4) Regulatory risk from potential data privacy laws. The most severe risk is a prolonged economic downturn that reduces lending activity, which could lead to a drop to the 52-week low of $150.75, a 12.7% downside.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) targets $190-$215, aligning with the analyst average of $210.52. The bull case (30% probability) targets $210-$245, driven by strong execution and macro recovery. The bear case (20% probability) targets $150-$175, if headwinds persist. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue growth continues in the low-to-mid teens and margins remain stable. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings for confirmation.
EFX's trailing PE of 40.5x is high, but the forward PE of 17x suggests the market expects significant earnings growth. Compared to its own history (PE range 27.9x-73.2x), the current trailing PE is in the middle, indicating it's not excessively overvalued. Relative to the market, the forward PE is at a premium, but this is justified by its stable cash flows and growth prospects. The PEG ratio of 4.12 suggests it's overvalued relative to growth, but this metric can be misleading for cyclical stocks. Overall, the stock appears fairly valued, with the forward PE implying a recovery that may or may not materialize.
EFX is a good buy for investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon, given the 21.9% upside to the average analyst target and the company's dominant market position. The stock is trading at a forward PE of 17x, which is reasonable if earnings grow as expected. However, the high debt and macro sensitivity are risks. A buy is more compelling if you believe in the AI-driven growth story and can tolerate volatility. For conservative investors, waiting for a pullback below $160 might offer a better margin of safety.
EFX is more suitable for long-term investment, given its cyclical nature and the time needed for AI initiatives to bear fruit. The stock has a beta of 1.32, indicating higher volatility, which can be challenging for short-term traders. The dividend yield is low (0.87%), so income investors may look elsewhere. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out economic cycles and benefit from earnings growth. Short-term traders might find opportunities around earnings announcements, but the stock's downtrend suggests caution.