Verisk Analytics
VRSK
$175.49
-5.54%
Verisk Analytics is a leading data, analytics, and technology provider for the property-casualty insurance industry, offering underwriting, claims, and catastrophe risk solutions. With roots tracing back to Insurance Services Office, Verisk holds a dominant position as an essential utility-like partner to insurers, leveraging proprietary data and regulatory expertise. The current investor narrative centers on the debate over whether AI will commoditize Verisk's data moat, as the stock has dropped over 50% from its highs amid fears of disruption, while bulls argue its deep regulatory barriers and cash flow generation offer a compelling long-term opportunity.…
VRSK
Verisk Analytics
$175.49
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VRSK Today?
Rating: Buy. Verisk's dominant data moat, strong cash flow, and analyst consensus (buy, average target $237.71) suggest the stock is undervalued after a 31% decline. The thesis is that AI disruption fears are overblown, and the company's regulatory and data advantages will sustain its competitive position.
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VRSK 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is cautiously bullish, as Verisk's fundamental strengths—high margins, strong cash flow, and a dominant market position—suggest the recent selloff is overdone. However, the medium confidence reflects the uncertainty around AI disruption. If Verisk can successfully integrate AI into its offerings and maintain its data moat, the stock has significant upside. Key developments to watch include revenue growth acceleration, new product launches, and any signs of competitive erosion. A downgrade to neutral would occur if revenue growth falls below 2% or if a major competitor emerges.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Verisk Analytics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $237.71 and implied upside of +35.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$237.71
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+35.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$195 - $275
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $195.00 to a high of $275.00, indicating a wide dispersion of expectations. The high target of $275.00 suggests a potential recovery to near the 52-week high, assuming AI disruption fears subside and the company's data moat holds. The low target of $195.00 implies a modest upside from current levels, reflecting concerns about competitive threats or margin pressure. The spread of $80 between low and high highlights significant uncertainty, but the overall bullish tilt suggests analysts see the recent selloff as overdone.
Bulls vs Bears: VRSK Investment Factors
The bull case for Verisk rests on its irreplaceable data assets, high margins, and strong cash flow, which provide a durable competitive advantage. The bear case centers on the AI disruption narrative, which has already caused a 50% drawdown, and the stock's still-rich valuation. Currently, the bearish sentiment dominates the price action, but the fundamental support from analysts and cash flows suggests the selloff may be overdone. The single most important tension is whether AI will truly commoditize Verisk's data moat or whether its regulatory and data advantages will prove resilient. If the moat holds, the stock is undervalued; if not, it could face further multiple compression.
Bullish
- Dominant Data Moat: Verisk's proprietary data and regulatory expertise create a high barrier to entry, as evidenced by its 67.3% gross margin and 44.6% operating margin. This utility-like position in the P&C insurance industry provides pricing power and customer stickiness, making it difficult for AI startups to replicate its comprehensive datasets.
- Strong Cash Flow Generation: Verisk generated $1.13 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, supporting its dividend (yield 0.81%) and buybacks. This cash generation provides financial flexibility for investments in AI and data capabilities, countering disruption fears.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With 17 analysts, the consensus rating is 'buy' (mean score 2.05), and the average price target of $237.71 implies a 27.9% upside from the current price of $185.79. Even the low target of $195.00 suggests a 5.0% upside, indicating analysts see the selloff as overdone.
- Stable Revenue Growth: Revenue grew 3.9% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to $782.6 million, with consistent sequential growth from $753.0 million in Q1 2025. While modest, this stability is a hallmark of a defensive, subscription-like business model.
Bearish
- AI Disruption Threat: The stock has dropped over 50% from its 52-week high of $273.83 to $185.79, driven by fears that AI will commoditize Verisk's data moat. The Motley Fool article highlights this debate, and if AI enables competitors to offer similar data at lower costs, Verisk's pricing power could erode.
- High Valuation Despite Decline: The trailing PE is 34.36x, and the forward PE is 21.36x, which is not cheap even after the selloff. The negative PEG ratio of -10.07 suggests that earnings growth expectations are uncertain, and the market may be pricing in a decline in near-term EPS.
- Slowing Growth Trajectory: Revenue growth of only 3.9% YoY is below the typical tech sector growth, and the company's reliance on the insurance segment (70% of revenue) exposes it to a single industry. This concentration limits diversification and growth potential.
- High Debt Levels: The debt-to-equity ratio is 16.30, indicating significant leverage. While this is common for mature companies, it increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or cash flows decline.
VRSK Technical Analysis
Verisk is in a pronounced downtrend, with the stock down 31.2% over the past year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% gain. The current price of $185.79 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 30% of the range (calculated as (185.79 - 155.94) / (273.83 - 155.94) = 25.5%), indicating bearish sentiment and potential value or continued weakness. The 52-week low of $155.94 and high of $273.83 frame a wide trading band, with the stock currently closer to the low, suggesting sellers have dominated.
Beta
0.66
0.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$156-$274
Price range past year
Annual Return
-35.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VRSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.5% | -0.9% |
| 3m | -4.2% | +5.6% |
| 6m | -11.4% | +15.0% |
| 1y | -35.7% | +18.1% |
| ytd | -20.6% | +12.3% |
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VRSK Fundamental Analysis
Verisk's revenue growth remains steady but modest, with Q1 2026 revenue of $782.6 million, up 3.9% year-over-year, and sequential growth from $778.8 million in Q4 2025. The company has consistently grown revenue from $753.0 million in Q1 2025 to $782.6 million in Q1 2026, indicating a stable, low-single-digit growth trajectory. The insurance segment, which generated $552.1 million in revenue, remains the core driver, though no other segments were disclosed, suggesting a concentrated reliance on the insurance vertical.
Quarterly Revenue
$782600000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+3.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
69.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is VRSK Overvalued?
Given positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 34.36x, while the forward PE is 21.36x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests an anticipated acceleration in EPS, which is supported by analyst estimates of $12.09 for the current year. However, the PEG ratio is negative at -10.07, indicating that growth expectations may be uncertain or that earnings are expected to decline in the near term.
PE
34.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 27x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks: Verisk carries a high debt-to-equity ratio of 16.30, which amplifies interest expense (e.g., $43.2 million in Q1 2026) and could strain cash flows if rates rise. The company's revenue growth is modest at 3.9% YoY, and its reliance on the insurance segment (70% of revenue) creates concentration risk. While free cash flow is strong at $1.13 billion TTM, any disruption to its core business could quickly erode this advantage. The negative PEG ratio of -10.07 signals that earnings growth expectations are uncertain, and the stock's high forward PE of 21.36x leaves little room for error.