Verisk Analytics
VRSK
$191.82
+1.09%
Verisk Analytics is a leading data, analytics, and technology provider for the property-casualty insurance industry, offering underwriting, claims, and catastrophe risk solutions. The company holds a dominant market position with a deep regulatory moat, serving as an essential partner to insurers through its proprietary data and analytics platforms. The current investor narrative centers on the potential for AI to commoditize Verisk's data moat, which has driven a significant stock decline, while the company's strong cash flow and entrenched industry relationships present a compelling long-term opportunity. Recent discussions highlight the tension between AI-driven disruption fears and Verisk's durable competitive advantages.…
VRSK
Verisk Analytics
$191.82
VRSK 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Verisk Analytics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $237.71 and implied upside of +23.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$237.71
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+23.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$195 - $275
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from $185.00 low to $275.00 high, a wide spread of $90, reflecting significant uncertainty about the company's future. The high target assumes that Verisk's data moat withstands AI disruption and that the company can sustain its premium valuation, while the low target prices in margin compression and competitive loss. Recent ratings actions show no major downgrades, with firms like JP Morgan and RBC Capital maintaining Overweight/Outperform, suggesting analysts see the recent sell-off as overdone. However, the wide range indicates that conviction is not uniform, and the stock's volatility is likely to persist.
Bulls vs Bears: VRSK Investment Factors
Verisk presents a classic value-versus-growth dilemma. The bull case rests on its entrenched data moat, strong cash flow, and analyst upside, while the bear case highlights sluggish growth, high leverage, and AI disruption fears. Currently, the bearish sentiment dominates the price action, but the fundamental strength suggests the sell-off may be overdone. The single most important tension is whether AI will erode Verisk's competitive advantages faster than the company can adapt. If Verisk successfully integrates AI into its offerings, the stock could re-rate higher; if not, the premium valuation could compress further.
Bullish
- Dominant data moat with regulatory backing: Verisk's deep regulatory moat and proprietary data for property-casualty insurers create high switching costs. The company's gross margin of 67.3% and operating margin of 44.6% demonstrate pricing power and operational efficiency, underpinning its competitive advantage.
- Strong cash flow generation: Verisk generates robust free cash flow of $1.13 billion TTM, supporting a dividend yield of 0.81% and a payout ratio of 27.6%. This cash generation provides flexibility for debt reduction, buybacks, and investments in AI capabilities.
- Analyst consensus bullish with upside: With 17 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' and the average target price is $237.12, implying a 25.0% upside from the current price of $189.75. Even the low target of $185 is close to current levels, suggesting limited downside per analysts.
- AI disruption fears may be overblown: Despite a 50% stock drop driven by AI commoditization fears, Verisk's data is deeply integrated into insurer workflows and regulatory requirements. The company's 83% US revenue concentration and long-standing relationships provide a buffer against rapid disruption.
Bearish
- Significant underperformance vs market: Verisk's 1-year price change is -28.4%, while the S&P 500 gained +21.5%. This 49.9% relative underperformance indicates persistent selling pressure and negative sentiment, likely due to AI disruption fears.
- High valuation despite decline: Even after the drop, the trailing PE is 34.4x and forward PE is 21.8x, which is not cheap. The PEG ratio is negative at -10.1, suggesting that expected growth may not justify the valuation if growth decelerates.
- Debt burden elevated: Debt-to-equity ratio is 16.3, indicating significant leverage. This could constrain financial flexibility and increase vulnerability to rising interest rates or economic downturns.
- Revenue growth remains sluggish: Revenue growth of 3.9% YoY is modest and below the sector average. The insurance segment, which generates $552.1 million, is mature and not accelerating, limiting top-line expansion.
VRSK Technical Analysis
Verisk's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -28.39%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +21.46% gain. The current price of $189.75 sits at approximately 68.7% of its 52-week range (between $155.94 low and $276.19 high), indicating the stock is closer to its lows than highs, reflecting persistent selling pressure and bearish sentiment. This positioning suggests the market is pricing in substantial negative catalysts, though it may also present a value opportunity if the fundamental thesis holds.
Beta
0.66
0.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-49.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$156-$276
Price range past year
Annual Return
-27.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VRSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.1% | +2.4% |
| 3m | +11.6% | +4.6% |
| 6m | +7.1% | +11.7% |
| 1y | -27.5% | +21.4% |
| ytd | -13.2% | +13.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
VRSK Fundamental Analysis
Verisk's revenue growth remains steady but modest, with Q1 2026 revenue of $782.6 million, up 3.93% year-over-year. The multi-quarter trend shows sequential growth from $753.0 million in Q1 2025 to $778.8 million in Q4 2025, indicating a stable, low-single-digit growth trajectory. The insurance segment, which generated $552.1 million in the latest quarter, continues to drive the business, though growth is not accelerating, reflecting the mature nature of the industry.
Quarterly Revenue
$782600000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+3.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
69.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is VRSK Overvalued?
Given positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 34.36x, while the forward PE is 21.83x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, likely driven by margin expansion and cost efficiencies. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a forward earnings growth rate of approximately 57%, which is optimistic given the company's historical growth.
PE
34.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 27x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
20.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 16.3, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise. The company's net margin of 29.6% is strong, but any margin compression from competitive pressures or AI investments could impact earnings. Additionally, the forward PE of 21.8x implies aggressive earnings growth expectations; if growth disappoints, the stock could de-rate significantly. The payout ratio of 27.6% is conservative, but debt service costs consume a portion of operating income, as seen in Q1 interest expense of $43.2 million.