Ford Motor Company
F
$14.43
-1.70%
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive manufacturer that designs, manufactures, and sells vehicles under the Ford and Lincoln brands, operating through its Ford Blue (combustion engine) and Ford Model e (electric vehicle) business segments, along with Ford Credit for financing services. As one of the largest automakers in the United States with over 13% market share domestically and a significant presence in the UK and China, Ford is a legacy industry leader navigating a transformative shift toward electrification and autonomous driving. The current investor narrative centers on Ford's recent earnings beat, raised full-year EBIT and free cash flow guidance, and its ambitious entry into autonomous driving by 2028, which has sparked both optimism about growth potential and concerns about competitive pressures in China and the capital-intensive nature of its EV transition.…
F
Ford Motor Company
$14.43
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy F Today?
Rating: Buy. Ford's raised guidance, cheap valuation (PS 0.28 vs. industry 1.07), and analyst consensus 'buy' with an average target of $15.78 (7.5% upside) support a positive outlook. The forward PE of 7.74 implies strong earnings recovery, and the stock's 1-year performance (+32.6%) outperformed the S&P 500. Key data points include Q1 2026 revenue growth of 6.4% YoY, positive net income of $2.55 billion, and free cash flow of $9.55 billion TTM. Risks include high debt (D/E 4.66), negative trailing EPS, and China market share of only 1%. This Buy would be downgraded to Hold if the forward PE exceeds 10x or if revenue growth decelerates below 3% YoY. Overall, Ford is undervalued relative to its history and peers, offering a compelling risk/reward.
Sign up to view all
F 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses Ford as bullish with medium confidence, driven by its attractive valuation, positive earnings momentum, and analyst support. However, the high beta and negative trailing EPS introduce uncertainty. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if Ford delivers consistent quarterly profits and free cash flow, while a downgrade would occur if the EV segment's losses escalate or if the company cuts its dividend.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ford Motor Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $15.78 and implied upside of +9.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$15.78
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+9.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$11 - $20
Analyst target range
Ford is covered by 20 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean recommendation score of 2.5 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $15.78, implying an upside of 7.5% from the current price of $14.68. The distribution includes 10 recent ratings with a mix of Buy, Hold, and Underweight, but the overall consensus leans bullish, supported by recent actions from UBS and BofA maintaining Buy ratings, while Barclays and Morgan Stanley remain neutral.
Bulls vs Bears: F Investment Factors
Ford presents a mixed picture: strong recent momentum, raised guidance, and a cheap valuation (PS 0.28 vs. industry 1.07) are countered by negative trailing earnings, high leverage, and competitive pressures in China. The bull case currently has stronger evidence, driven by the earnings beat and raised guidance, but the bear case hinges on the sustainability of profitability and the capital-intensive EV transition. The most important tension is whether Ford can consistently generate positive earnings and free cash flow to justify its forward PE of 7.74, or if the negative trailing EPS and high debt will undermine the recovery.
Bullish
- Raised FY2026 EBIT and FCF Guidance: Ford raised its full-year EBIT and free cash flow guidance in Q2 2026, signaling management confidence in sustained operational momentum. This positive revision supports the stock's recent rally and underpins the forward PE of 7.74, which implies strong earnings recovery.
- Strong Relative Performance vs. S&P 500: Ford's 1-year price change of +32.6% significantly outperformed the S&P 500's +18.2%, demonstrating robust relative strength. The stock's 1-month relative strength of 7.45% and 3-month relative strength of 19.9% further confirm its recent outperformance.
- Attractive Valuation with Low PS Ratio: Ford's trailing PS ratio of 0.28 is well below the industry average of 1.07, indicating the stock trades at a substantial discount to the sector. This suggests potential value if the company meets earnings expectations, as reflected in the forward PE of 7.74.
- Analyst Consensus is Buy with 7.5% Upside: With 20 analysts covering Ford, the consensus recommendation is 'buy' with an average target price of $15.78, implying a 7.5% upside from the current price of $14.68. Recent actions from UBS and BofA maintaining Buy ratings reinforce this positive sentiment.
Bearish
- Negative Trailing EPS and ROE: Ford's trailing EPS is -$0.16, and ROE is -22.76%, reflecting significant profitability challenges. The Q4 2025 net loss of -$11.06 billion, driven by a -$13.9 billion other expenses charge, highlights the volatility and risk in earnings.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 4.66: Ford's debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66 is extremely high, indicating substantial leverage. This financial risk could constrain flexibility and increase vulnerability to economic downturns or rising interest rates.
- China Market Share Only 1%: Ford has just over 1% market share in China, a key growth market, and faces intense competition from local EV makers. This weakness limits its global growth potential and could pressure future revenue.
- EV Transition is Capital-Intensive: Ford's shift to electric vehicles requires massive capital investment, as evidenced by its negative free cash flow in some periods. The company's EV segment (Model e) has been loss-making, and the transition could continue to drag on profitability.
F Technical Analysis
Ford's stock has demonstrated a strong recovery over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +32.6%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.2% gain. The current price of $14.68 sits at 82.5% of its 52-week range (low of $10.68, high of $17.78), indicating the stock is trading closer to its highs but still below the peak, suggesting a bullish trend with room to retest resistance. The 52-week low was set in March 2026, and the subsequent rally has been robust, positioning the stock in a clear uptrend despite a recent pullback from the June high.
Beta
1.85
1.85x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$11-$18
Price range past year
Annual Return
+33.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | F Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +8.0% | +1.7% |
| 3m | +23.4% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +4.4% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +33.4% | +21.9% |
| ytd | +8.2% | +11.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
F Fundamental Analysis
Ford's revenue trajectory shows a mixed but generally improving picture. In Q1 2026, revenue grew 6.4% year-over-year to $43.25 billion, up from $40.66 billion in Q1 2025, though this was below the $50.53 billion reported in Q3 2025, indicating quarterly volatility. The company's revenue segments show Ford Credit contributing $3.43 billion, while the core auto business (excluding Ford Credit) generated $39.82 billion, highlighting the importance of its financing arm. The multi-quarter trend reveals a deceleration from the $50.5 billion peak in Q3 2025, but the YoY growth in Q1 2026 suggests a rebound, supported by raised full-year guidance for EBIT and free cash flow, signaling management's confidence in sustained growth.
Quarterly Revenue
$43.3B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
18.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$9.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is F Overvalued?
Given Ford's negative trailing EPS of -$0.16, the price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful, so I selected the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. Ford's trailing PS ratio is 0.28, which is significantly lower than the industry average of 1.07 (based on the provided EV-to-sales of 1.066, though this is EV-based), indicating the stock trades at a substantial discount to the sector. The forward PE of 7.74 suggests the market expects earnings to recover strongly, implying a potential value opportunity if the company meets these expectations.
PE
-6.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 2x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-42.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are significant: Ford's debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66 indicates high leverage, and its negative trailing EPS of -$0.16 and ROE of -22.76% reflect profitability struggles. The Q4 2025 net loss of -$11.06 billion, driven by a -$13.9 billion other expenses charge, highlights earnings volatility. However, Q1 2026 showed a rebound with net income of $2.55 billion and positive operating cash flow, and the company raised its full-year EBIT and FCF guidance, suggesting improved financial health. The high payout ratio of -36.5% (negative due to losses) and dividend yield of 5.73% may be at risk if cash flow deteriorates.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Financial: high debt-to-equity of 4.66 and negative trailing EPS, which could lead to dividend cuts. 2) Competitive: intense competition in China (1% market share) and from EV makers like Tesla. 3) Macro: high beta of 1.83 makes the stock sensitive to economic downturns. 4) Company-specific: the capital-intensive EV transition may continue to drain cash flow. The most severe risk is a prolonged period of losses, which could push the stock to the 52-week low of $10.68.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) targets $14.50-$16.50, aligning with the analyst average of $15.78. The bull case (30% probability) targets $17-$20, driven by successful EV execution. The bear case (20% probability) targets $10.68-$12, if the turnaround fails. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming Ford continues to execute on its guidance.
Ford is undervalued relative to its peers, with a trailing PS ratio of 0.28 versus the industry average of 1.07. The forward PE of 7.74 is also low, implying the market expects strong earnings growth. The valuation suggests the market is pricing in a recovery but remains skeptical of Ford's ability to sustain profitability. If Ford meets earnings estimates, the stock could re-rate higher.
Ford offers a compelling risk/reward with a 7.5% upside to the analyst average target of $15.78, a low PS ratio of 0.28, and a forward PE of 7.74. However, the negative trailing EPS and high debt (D/E 4.66) introduce risk. It is a good buy for investors with a medium-to-high risk tolerance who believe in Ford's turnaround and EV strategy. The stock is not suitable for risk-averse investors or those seeking stable earnings.
Ford is better suited for long-term investment (3-5 years) given its cyclical nature and the multi-year EV transition. The high beta (1.83) and recent volatility (20% drop in June 2026) make it risky for short-term trading. However, the 5.73% dividend yield provides income while waiting for the turnaround. Investors should have a minimum holding period of 3 years to ride out cyclical downturns and benefit from the EV strategy.