Ford Motor Company
F
$14.00
+2.87%
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive manufacturer that designs, manufactures, and sells vehicles under the Ford and Lincoln brands, operating in the highly competitive auto manufacturing industry. As a legacy automaker with over 13% market share in the United States and a significant presence in the UK, Ford is distinct for its dual focus on its traditional combustion engine business (Ford Blue) and its electric vehicle segment (Ford Model e), positioning itself as a traditional player transitioning into the EV and energy space. The current investor narrative centers on Ford's near-term headwinds from EV losses, aluminum supply disruptions impacting F-150 sales, and a 20% stock slump in June, offset by optimism around its Ford Energy division targeting a $160B battery energy storage market and the upcoming Q2 earnings report on July 28 as a potential catalyst.…
F
Ford Motor Company
$14.00
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy F Today?
Rating: Hold. Ford is a deeply cyclical value play with a historically low valuation, but its recent financial performance (net loss of $11.06B in Q4 2025) and thin margins (3.72% gross margin) make it a high-risk investment. The analyst consensus is mixed, with no explicit price targets, but the average EPS estimate of $2.23 for the next fiscal year implies a forward PE of 6.3, suggesting potential upside if earnings materialize.
Supporting Evidence: The primary valuation metric, PS ratio, is 0.28, well below the industry average of 0.5-0.7 and near its 5-year low. Revenue growth has been negative (-4.81% YoY in Q4 2025), and profitability is weak with a TTM net margin of -4.37%. However, free cash flow of $12.47B is strong, and the forward PE of 7.65 based on estimated EPS of $2.23 suggests the market expects a sharp earnings recovery. The dividend yield of 5.73% provides some income, but the payout ratio of -36.5% indicates the dividend is not covered by earnings.
Risks & Conditions: The biggest risks are continued net losses, margin compression, and high debt levels. This Hold rating would upgrade to Buy if Ford reports positive net income in Q2 2026 and gross margins recover above 8%. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns more negative or if free cash flow turns negative. Overall, Ford appears undervalued on a PS and forward PE basis, but the valuation discount is justified by its poor profitability and high leverage. The stock is fairly valued relative to its risk profile.
Sign up to view all
F 12-Month Price Forecast
Ford's outlook is highly uncertain, hinging on the Q2 2026 earnings report on July 28. The base case of a range-bound stock is most likely, given the conflicting signals of low valuation and poor profitability. The bull case requires a sharp earnings recovery, while the bear case could materialize if losses persist. The neutral stance reflects the balanced risk/reward at current levels, with a slight bearish tilt due to the recent negative earnings momentum. An upgrade to bullish would require evidence of margin improvement and positive net income; a downgrade to bearish would follow another large loss or dividend cut.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ford Motor Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $18.20 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$18.20
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$11 - $18
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage available. Only 3 analysts cover Ford, with a consensus that leans neutral to bearish based on ratings from firms like Wells Fargo (Underweight), RBC Capital (Sector Perform), and Barclays (Equal Weight). The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $2.23, with a range of $2.04 to $2.43, and estimated revenue of $201.54 billion. Without explicit price targets, the implied upside/downside cannot be calculated, but the low coverage and mixed ratings suggest limited institutional conviction. The limited analyst coverage (3 analysts) for a large-cap stock like Ford is unusual and may reflect reduced sell-side interest, leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The wide range in EPS estimates ($2.04 to $2.43) indicates uncertainty about Ford's earnings trajectory, while the revenue estimates ($187.8B to $214.9B) show dispersion, highlighting the challenges in forecasting Ford's performance amid EV transition and supply chain issues.
Bulls vs Bears: F Investment Factors
Ford presents a classic value-versus-value-trap debate. On the bull side, the stock trades at a historically low PS ratio of 0.28, generates strong free cash flow of $12.47B, and has a promising energy division targeting a $160B market. On the bear side, the company posted a massive net loss in Q4 2025, has razor-thin gross margins of 3.72%, and carries a high debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66. The single most important tension is whether Ford can restore profitability in its core auto business while managing the costly EV transition. If the upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report shows margin improvement and a path to positive net income, the bull case gains traction; if losses persist, the stock could remain range-bound or decline further. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger due to the magnitude of recent losses, but the low valuation provides a margin of safety for patient investors.
Bullish
- Historically Low PS Ratio: Ford's trailing PS ratio of 0.28 is near the bottom of its 5-year range of 0.8-2.2, representing a ~60% discount to the industry average of 0.5-0.7. This suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, creating potential upside if fundamentals improve.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: Despite a net loss of $11.06B in Q4 2025, Ford generated $12.47B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months, with free cash flow per share of $0.28. This cash generation provides a cushion for debt service and investment in the EV transition.
- Ford Energy Division Opportunity: Ford's new energy division targets the $160B battery energy storage market, offering a potentially high-growth revenue stream beyond traditional auto manufacturing. Recent news highlights a clearer near-term path to profits compared to peers like GM.
- Low Forward PE Suggests Earnings Recovery: With a forward PE of 7.65 based on estimated EPS of $2.23, the stock is priced for a significant earnings rebound from the TTM loss of -$2.78. If Ford achieves even the low end of estimates ($2.04), the stock would trade at a 6.9x PE, well below historical averages.
Bearish
- Negative Net Income and Thin Margins: Ford reported a net loss of $11.06B in Q4 2025, with a gross margin of just 3.72%, down from 8.31% a year earlier. The TTM net margin is -4.37%, indicating severe profitability challenges that may persist.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Ford's debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66 is extremely high, reflecting significant leverage. While the current ratio of 1.07 suggests adequate short-term liquidity, the debt burden increases financial risk, especially if cash flow weakens.
- Revenue Decline and F-150 Headwinds: Q4 2025 revenue fell 4.81% YoY to $45.89B, and the F-150 sales slump due to aluminum supply disruptions is a near-term headwind. The core auto business is under pressure, with operating income turning negative in Q4 2025 (-$907M).
- Limited Analyst Coverage and Mixed Ratings: Only 3 analysts cover Ford, with ratings including Underweight (Wells Fargo), Sector Perform (RBC), and Equal Weight (Barclays). The lack of bullish consensus and low coverage suggest limited institutional conviction and higher uncertainty.
F Technical Analysis
Ford's stock is in a recovery phase from a significant downtrend, with a 1-year price change of +17.55%, but the current price of $14.00 sits at 46.5% of its 52-week range ($10.68 low to $17.78 high), indicating it is well off its highs and closer to the midpoint. This positioning suggests the stock is neither overextended nor at a deep value level, reflecting a market that is cautiously optimistic but not fully convinced of a sustained turnaround. The 52-week low of $10.68 was set in March 2026, and the stock has since rebounded, but it remains 21.3% below the 52-week high of $17.78, highlighting lingering uncertainty. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month price change of -2.10%, conflicting with the 3-month change of +15.42% and the 1-year change of +17.55%, signaling a recent pullback that could be a temporary consolidation or a sign of weakening momentum. The 1-month decline contrasts with the longer-term uptrend, suggesting a potential mean reversion or a pause before the next leg, especially given the stock's beta of 1.828, which indicates 82.8% more volatility than the S&P 500. The 52-week low of $10.68 serves as key support, while the 52-week high of $17.78 is the primary resistance; a breakout above $17.78 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $10.68 could indicate a return to bearish territory. With a beta of 1.828, Ford is significantly more volatile than the market, requiring careful position sizing for risk management.
Beta
1.83
1.83x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$11-$18
Price range past year
Annual Return
+17.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | F Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -2.1% | +1.8% |
| 3m | +15.4% | +10.0% |
| 6m | -1.4% | +8.8% |
| 1y | +17.5% | +21.1% |
| ytd | +4.9% | +10.7% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
F Fundamental Analysis
Ford's revenue trajectory shows recent weakness, with Q4 2025 revenue of $45.89 billion declining 4.81% year-over-year, following a pattern of fluctuating growth: Q3 2025 revenue was $50.53 billion, Q2 2025 was $50.18 billion, and Q1 2025 was $40.66 billion. The multi-quarter trend indicates deceleration, with the most recent quarter's YoY decline contrasting with prior quarters' growth, suggesting headwinds from supply chain issues and softer demand. The Ford Credit segment contributed $3.44 billion in revenue, but the core auto business is under pressure, as highlighted by the F-150 sales slump due to aluminum disruptions. Profitability is a major concern: Ford reported a net loss of $11.06 billion in Q4 2025, with a gross margin of just 3.72%, down sharply from 8.31% in Q4 2024 and 8.51% in Q3 2025. The net loss was driven by a $14.81 billion pre-tax loss, including a $3.76 billion tax benefit, indicating severe margin compression. Over the trailing twelve months, net income was negative, with an EPS of -$2.78, though the company generated $12.47 billion in free cash flow, suggesting cash generation remains strong despite accounting losses. Ford's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66, indicating high leverage, but the current ratio of 1.07 suggests adequate short-term liquidity. Free cash flow of $12.47 billion (TTM) provides a cushion, with a free cash flow per share of $0.28, but the high debt load (debt-to-equity of 4.66) and negative ROE of -22.76% raise financial risk concerns. The company's ability to generate cash from operations ($3.88 billion in Q4 2025) is positive, but the reliance on debt financing is evident.
Quarterly Revenue
$45.9B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-4.81%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
3.72%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is F Overvalued?
Since Ford's trailing twelve-month net income is negative (EPS of -$2.78), the P/E ratio is not meaningful, so we use the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 0.28, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $201.54 billion) is approximately 0.26, implying a slight discount and modest growth expectations. Compared to the auto manufacturers industry average PS ratio (typically around 0.5-0.7), Ford's PS of 0.28 represents a significant discount of roughly 50-60%, reflecting the market's skepticism about its profitability and growth prospects. This discount is partially justified by Ford's negative net margins (-4.37% TTM) and thin gross margins (12.18%), but the low multiple also suggests potential value if the company can improve profitability. Historically, Ford's PS ratio has ranged from about 0.8 to 2.2 over the past five years, with the current 0.28 near the bottom of that range. This indicates the stock is trading at a historically low multiple, which could signal a value opportunity if fundamentals improve, but also reflects the market's pessimistic view of near-term earnings power.
PE
-6.4x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -300x~26x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-42.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Ford's most pressing financial risk is its negative net income, with a TTM net loss of -$2.78 per share and a net margin of -4.37%. The gross margin collapsed to 3.72% in Q4 2025 from 8.31% a year earlier, indicating severe cost pressures. The debt-to-equity ratio of 4.66 is among the highest in the industry, and while free cash flow of $12.47B provides some buffer, any disruption to cash generation could strain debt servicing. Revenue concentration is also a risk, as US sales account for about 65% of total revenue, making Ford highly sensitive to the US economic cycle.
Market & Competitive Risks: Ford's beta of 1.828 makes it significantly more volatile than the market, amplifying downside in bear markets. The stock's PS ratio of 0.28 is at a 60% discount to the industry average, reflecting market skepticism about its ability to compete in the EV transition against Tesla and other EV pure-plays. Rising fuel costs and vehicle prices are pressuring demand for high-margin trucks and SUVs, a key profit engine. Additionally, the limited analyst coverage (3 analysts) and mixed ratings (Underweight, Sector Perform, Equal Weight) suggest reduced sell-side interest, which can lead to less efficient price discovery and higher volatility.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn, Ford could face a prolonged period of negative earnings, further margin compression, and a loss of investor confidence. The 52-week low of $10.68 represents a 23.7% decline from the current price of $14.00. If the company reports another large loss in Q2 2026 and the EV transition continues to drain cash, the stock could retest that low or break below it. Historical max drawdown of -23.39% suggests a realistic downside to around $10.72, implying a potential loss of 23.4% from current levels. In an extreme scenario, if Ford cuts its dividend (current yield 5.73%), the stock could fall further, potentially to $9.00 or below.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk: negative net income (-$2.78 EPS TTM) and high debt-to-equity of 4.66, which could lead to dividend cuts or financial distress. 2) Operational risk: thin gross margins of 3.72% and revenue decline of 4.81% YoY, driven by F-150 supply disruptions and EV losses. 3) Competitive risk: Ford faces intense competition in EVs from Tesla and others, and its legacy auto business is cyclical. 4) Macro risk: with a beta of 1.828, Ford is highly sensitive to economic downturns and rising interest rates. The most severe risk is a prolonged period of losses leading to a dividend cut and stock price decline to the 52-week low of $10.68 or below.
The 12-month outlook for Ford is uncertain, with three scenarios: a bull case (25% probability) targeting $16-$18, driven by a successful turnaround and EV progress; a base case (50% probability) of $13-$15, with stable but weak performance; and a bear case (25% probability) of $10-$12, if losses persist. The base case is most likely, given the current headwinds. The key catalyst is the Q2 2026 earnings report on July 28, which will provide clarity on margins and profitability. Analyst estimates suggest EPS of $2.04-$2.43 for the next fiscal year, but the wide range indicates uncertainty.
Ford appears undervalued on a price-to-sales basis, with a trailing PS ratio of 0.28 compared to the industry average of 0.5-0.7 and its own 5-year range of 0.8-2.2. The forward PE of 7.65 based on estimated EPS of $2.23 also suggests undervaluation if earnings materialize. However, the TTM PE is not meaningful due to negative earnings. The low valuation reflects the market's skepticism about Ford's profitability, high debt (debt-to-equity of 4.66), and challenges in the EV transition. Overall, Ford is undervalued relative to historical multiples, but the discount is justified by its poor financial performance.
Ford is a high-risk, high-reward value play. The stock trades at a PS ratio of 0.28, a 60% discount to the industry average, and offers a 5.73% dividend yield. However, the company reported a net loss of $11.06B in Q4 2025 and has thin gross margins of 3.72%. The forward PE of 7.65 implies an earnings recovery, but this is uncertain. For long-term value investors with high risk tolerance, Ford could be a good buy if you believe the company can restore profitability. For conservative investors, the risks outweigh the potential reward. The upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report on July 28 is a key catalyst.
Ford is better suited for long-term investment, given its cyclical nature and the time needed for the EV transition and margin recovery. The stock's beta of 1.828 makes it too volatile for conservative short-term trading, and the 1-month decline of -2.10% suggests weak short-term momentum. Long-term investors can benefit from the 5.73% dividend yield and potential valuation expansion if the turnaround succeeds. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out the cycle. Short-term traders may find opportunities around earnings events, but the risk is high due to low analyst coverage and unpredictable news flow.