Tesla
TSLA
$374.01
-1.30%
Tesla is a vertically integrated battery electric vehicle automaker and developer of real-world artificial intelligence software, including autonomous driving and humanoid robots, operating in the auto manufacturing industry. As the dominant EV market leader with a first-mover advantage, Tesla distinguishes itself through its vertical integration, proprietary software, and expansive Supercharger network. The current investor narrative centers on Tesla's record Q2 deliveries and energy storage growth, which have boosted near-term sentiment, but concerns persist over high valuation, reliance on discounts, and delays in robotaxi and Full Self-Driving timelines.…
TSLA
Tesla
$374.01
Related headlines
TSLA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Tesla's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $425.22 and implied upside of +13.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$425.22
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+13.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$125 - $600
Analyst target range
Tesla is covered by 40 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' (mean rating 2.38 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is strong buy). The average target price is $425.61, implying approximately 11.8% upside from the current price of $380.84. The distribution leans bullish, but the presence of hold and sell ratings tempers enthusiasm. The target range spans from a low of $125.00 to a high of $600.00, indicating wide dispersion in analyst views. The high target of $600 assumes successful execution on autonomous driving and energy storage, driving multiple expansion and accelerating growth. The low target of $125.00 prices in margin compression, competitive losses, and potential recession impacts. Recent ratings from major firms like Morgan Stanley (Equal Weight), Barclays (Equal Weight), and Wells Fargo (Underweight) show a cautious tone, with no recent upgrades. The wide spread between low and high targets signals high uncertainty about Tesla's future trajectory, and the lack of strong bullish conviction from some key firms suggests that the stock may face headwinds in achieving consensus expectations.
Bulls vs Bears: TSLA Investment Factors
Tesla presents a high-conviction bull case based on its dominant EV market position, strong balance sheet, and record deliveries, but the bear case is equally compelling due to extreme valuation, margin compression, and slowing growth. The bull side has stronger evidence in the near term given the Q2 delivery beat and analyst consensus, but the bear case is more concerning for long-term holders. The single most important tension is whether Tesla can grow earnings fast enough to justify its 381x trailing P/E, or if multiple compression will erode returns. Any disappointment in robotaxi or FSD timelines could trigger a severe re-rating.
Bullish
- Record Q2 deliveries and energy storage growth: Tesla posted its best quarter in two years with record Q2 deliveries, and energy storage revenue grew significantly. This demonstrates strong operational execution and diversification beyond automotive, which could drive future earnings growth.
- Strong balance sheet with low debt: Tesla's debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.102, and it has a current ratio of 2.16, indicating ample liquidity. Free cash flow TTM is $7.0 billion, providing internal funding for growth initiatives without dilutive financing.
- Analyst consensus buy with 11.8% upside: The average analyst target price is $425.61, implying 11.8% upside from the current price of $380.84. With 40 analysts covering, the consensus recommendation is 'buy' (mean 2.38 on a 1-5 scale), reflecting institutional optimism.
- Revenue growth of 15.8% YoY in Q1 2026: Q1 2026 revenue of $22.39 billion grew 15.8% year-over-year, driven by automotive and energy segments. While decelerated from prior years, this growth still outpaces traditional automakers and supports the premium valuation.
Bearish
- Extreme trailing P/E of 381x: Tesla's trailing P/E of 381.12x is astronomically high compared to the auto industry average of ~10-15x. Even the forward P/E of 149x implies massive earnings growth expectations, leaving little room for error.
- Margin compression from 29.1% to 21.1%: Gross margin has fallen from 29.1% in Q1 2022 to 21.1% in Q1 2026, driven by price cuts and higher costs. Operating margin dropped from 19.2% to 4.2% over the same period, indicating significant profitability pressure.
- Decelerating revenue growth and sequential decline: Revenue growth slowed to 15.8% YoY in Q1 2026, down from 30%+ in prior years. Sequentially, revenue fell from $24.9 billion in Q4 2025 to $22.4 billion in Q1 2026, suggesting demand headwinds.
- Wide dispersion in analyst targets: Analyst targets range from $125 to $600, indicating extreme uncertainty. The low target of $125 implies a 67% downside from current levels, reflecting risks of margin compression, competitive losses, or recession.
TSLA Technical Analysis
Tesla's 1-year price change of +19.23% indicates a sustained uptrend, but the stock is currently trading at $380.84, which is 76.4% of its 52-week range (low $297.82, high $498.83). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the stock has pulled back significantly from its highs, potentially offering a value opportunity, though it also reflects weakening momentum. The 1-month price change of -3.92% and 3-month change of -4.94% show short-term momentum is negative and decelerating, diverging from the positive 1-year trend. This divergence could signal a temporary pullback or a potential trend reversal, especially as the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by -4.23% over the past month. The 52-week low of $297.82 serves as key support, while the 52-week high of $498.83 is resistance. A breakout above $498.83 would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $297.82 could indicate further downside. With a beta of 1.802, Tesla is 80% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside risks for position sizing.
Beta
1.80
1.80x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$298-$499
Price range past year
Annual Return
+12.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TSLA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.7% | +0.4% |
| 3m | +0.1% | +5.5% |
| 6m | -16.7% | +8.4% |
| 1y | +12.6% | +18.9% |
| ytd | -14.6% | +9.6% |
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TSLA Fundamental Analysis
Tesla's revenue trajectory shows growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $22.39 billion, up 15.78% year-over-year from $19.34 billion in Q1 2025. However, the growth rate has decelerated from the 30%+ levels seen in 2022-2023, and the sequential trend from Q4 2025 ($24.90 billion) shows a decline. The automotive segment remains the primary driver, contributing $16.23 billion in Q1 2026, while energy generation and storage ($2.41 billion) and services ($3.75 billion) provide diversification but are smaller contributors. The deceleration in revenue growth suggests maturing EV demand and increased competition, which pressures the investment case unless new catalysts like robotaxi or energy storage accelerate. Tesla is profitable, with Q1 2026 net income of $491 million and a gross margin of 21.08%. However, margins have compressed from 29.1% in Q1 2022 to 21.1% in Q1 2026, reflecting price cuts and higher costs. The operating margin of 4.2% in Q1 2026 is well below the 19.2% peak in Q1 2022, indicating profitability pressure. The net margin of 2.19% is thin, though the company has remained profitable for several quarters. Tesla's balance sheet is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.102 and a current ratio of 2.16, indicating low leverage and ample liquidity. Free cash flow (FCF) was $1.44 billion in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month FCF is $7.0 billion, providing internal funding for growth. The ROE of 4.62% is modest, reflecting the large equity base, but the low debt levels reduce financial risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$22.4B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+15.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
21.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$7.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TSLA Overvalued?
Since net income is positive ($491 million), the trailing P/E ratio of 381.12x is the primary valuation metric, but it is extremely elevated. The forward P/E of 149.11x implies that the market expects significant earnings growth, as the gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests a 61% expected earnings increase. Given the high P/E, the P/S ratio of 15.29x provides a useful cross-check. Compared to the auto industry average P/S (typically around 1-2x), Tesla's P/S of 15.29x represents a massive premium, reflecting its growth and technology premium. The EV/EBITDA of 122.60x further underscores the extreme valuation. Historically, Tesla's trailing P/E has ranged from 25x (Q4 2023) to over 600x (Q1 2026), and the current 381x is near the top of its historical band, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic future growth. This suggests that any disappointment in earnings or growth could lead to significant multiple compression.
PE
381.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 25x~259x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
122.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Tesla's primary financial risk is its extreme valuation, with a trailing P/E of 381x and EV/EBITDA of 122.6x, leaving no margin for error. Margin compression is a key operational risk: gross margin fell from 29.1% in Q1 2022 to 21.1% in Q1 2026, and operating margin dropped from 19.2% to 4.2%. The company's reliance on price cuts to drive volume could further pressure profitability. Additionally, revenue growth decelerated to 15.8% YoY, and sequential revenue declined from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026, signaling potential demand saturation.
Market & Competitive Risks: Tesla's beta of 1.802 makes it highly sensitive to macro conditions, and its underperformance vs. the S&P 500 over the past month (-4.23% relative) highlights vulnerability to sector rotation. Competitive risks are rising as traditional automakers and EV startups (e.g., Rivian, Lucid) increase pressure. Regulatory risks include potential changes to EV tax credits and autonomous driving regulations. Recent news about Lucid's bankruptcy rumors and Rivian's H1 decline underscores industry headwinds, though Tesla's scale provides some insulation.
Worst-Case Scenario: A perfect storm of margin compression, delivery misses, and robotaxi delays could drive Tesla's stock to its 52-week low of $297.82, representing a 21.8% decline from the current price of $380.84. In a severe recession, the analyst low target of $125 implies a 67% loss. Historical max drawdown of -29.93% suggests a realistic downside of ~30% to around $266, consistent with the 52-week low scenario.