First Solar
FSLR
$239.33
-4.29%
First Solar, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of solar photovoltaic panels, modules, and systems, primarily serving utility-scale solar projects with its proprietary cadmium telluride thin-film technology. As the world's largest thin-film solar module manufacturer, the company operates production facilities in the United States, Vietnam, Malaysia, and India, positioning itself as a key player in the global energy transition. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust growth trajectory, driven by strong demand for its Series 7 modules and strategic capacity expansions, while also navigating policy uncertainties, particularly around U.S. trade tariffs and the Inflation Reduction Act's domestic manufacturing incentives. Recent analyst actions and price momentum reflect a cautiously optimistic outlook, with debates focusing on the sustainability of its high margins and the impact of competitive pressures from Chinese manufacturers.…
FSLR
First Solar
$239.33
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FSLR Today?
Based on the analysis, FSLR is rated a 'Buy' with a thesis that its strong growth, expanding margins, and attractive forward valuation outweigh policy and competitive risks. The consensus is 'Buy' with an average target of $256.14, implying 4.9% upside, but the high target of $330 suggests significant potential if execution continues.
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FSLR 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish with medium confidence. The company's strong fundamental performance, including revenue acceleration and margin expansion, supports a positive outlook. The low forward valuation provides a margin of safety. However, policy uncertainties and competitive pressures introduce risk. If the company maintains its growth trajectory and policy remains supportive, the stock is likely to appreciate. A downgrade would occur if revenue growth falls below 15% or margins compress significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on First Solar's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $267.97 and implied upside of +12.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$267.97
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$150 - $402
Analyst target range
First Solar is covered by 29 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 2.11 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $256.14, implying an upside of 4.9% from the current price of $244.14. The distribution shows a bullish tilt, with 18 Buy ratings, 8 Hold, and 3 Sell, indicating a generally positive sentiment but with some caution. The target price range spans from $150 to $330, with the low target suggesting a 38.6% downside, reflecting concerns about policy risks and competitive pressures, while the high target implies a 35.2% upside, assuming successful execution of growth plans and favorable market conditions. Recent rating actions show a mix of upgrades and downgrades, with Deutsche Bank upgrading to Buy and Truist Securities downgrading to Hold, indicating some divergence in analyst views on the stock's near-term prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: FSLR Investment Factors
First Solar presents a compelling growth story with strong revenue acceleration, expanding margins, and a robust balance sheet. The forward valuation is attractive, trading at a 52% discount to the industry on forward earnings, which supports a bullish stance. However, policy risks, competitive pressures, and high volatility temper enthusiasm. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its high margins and growth in the face of potential tariff changes and Chinese competition. If policy remains favorable and execution continues, the stock is undervalued; if not, it could face significant downside. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the fundamental momentum and valuation support.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 23.6% YoY to $1.04 billion, accelerating from the prior year's Q1 growth of 15.4% (from $844.6M to $1.04B). This momentum is driven by robust demand for Series 7 modules and successful capacity expansions.
- Expanding Profitability and Margins: Gross margin improved to 46.5% in Q1 2026 from 42.4% a year ago, while net margin expanded to 33.2% from 24.8%. Net income surged 65.5% YoY to $346.6 million, reflecting operational leverage and favorable pricing.
- Undervalued on Forward Earnings: With a forward PE of 10.62x versus trailing PE of 18.33x, the market implies a 42% earnings growth expectation. Compared to the industry average forward PE of 22x, FSLR trades at a 52% discount, suggesting significant undervaluation relative to growth.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Low Debt: Debt-to-equity is a mere 0.05, and the current ratio stands at 2.67, indicating ample liquidity. This financial strength supports ongoing capacity expansions and provides resilience against market downturns.
Bearish
- Policy and Tariff Uncertainty: The solar industry faces potential changes to U.S. trade tariffs and IRA incentives. Any adverse policy shifts could compress margins and reduce demand, as highlighted by recent analyst downgrades and the stock's YTD decline of -11%.
- High Valuation on Trailing Earnings: Despite the low forward PE, the trailing PE of 18.33x is only slightly below the industry average of 22x. If earnings growth disappoints, the stock could face multiple compression, especially given its beta of 1.746.
- Competitive Pressure from Chinese Rivals: Chinese manufacturers with lower costs could erode FSLR's market share and pricing power. The company's thin-film technology faces intense competition from cheaper polysilicon panels, potentially pressuring margins.
- Recent Price Volatility and Drawdown: The stock has experienced a max drawdown of -37.4% over the past year, and the current price is 24% below its 52-week high of $320.95. This volatility may deter risk-averse investors and indicates market uncertainty.
FSLR Technical Analysis
First Solar's stock is in a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +31.96%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +21.46% over the same period. The current price of $244.14 sits at approximately 76% of its 52-week range (low $176.47, high $320.95), indicating the stock is in the upper portion of its range but has pulled back from its highs. This positioning suggests a healthy consolidation after a strong rally, with the stock trading above its 200-day moving average, though it has recently corrected from its June peak of $318.25.
Beta
1.75
1.75x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-37.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$176-$321
Price range past year
Annual Return
+29.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FSLR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +5.0% | +2.4% |
| 3m | +4.9% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +5.1% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +29.6% | +21.3% |
| ytd | -12.8% | +13.4% |
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FSLR Fundamental Analysis
First Solar's revenue has shown strong growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1.04 billion, up 23.6% year-over-year, and a notable acceleration from the prior year's Q1 revenue of $844.6 million. The company's trailing twelve-month revenue stands at approximately $5.4 billion, driven by robust demand for its Series 7 modules and successful execution of its manufacturing expansion plans. Gross margin improved to 46.5% in Q1 2026, up from 42.4% in Q1 2025, reflecting better product mix and operational efficiencies, while net income of $346.6 million in Q1 2026 represents a 65.5% increase from the prior year's Q1, with net margin expanding to 33.2% from 24.8%.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+23.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
46.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FSLR Overvalued?
Given First Solar's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 18.33x, while the forward PE is 10.62x, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth, with the forward PE implying a 42% discount to trailing. This gap suggests investors are pricing in a substantial increase in earnings, likely driven by the company's capacity expansions and favorable pricing environment. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x, First Solar trades at a 17% discount on a trailing basis, but on a forward basis, the discount widens to 52%, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects.
PE
18.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 12x~33x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are moderate. First Solar's debt-to-equity is only 0.05, indicating low leverage, but the company's high operating margin of 30.6% is susceptible to fluctuations in module pricing and raw material costs. Revenue concentration in utility-scale projects exposes it to project delays or cancellations, and the reliance on continued capacity expansion for growth means any execution missteps could impact earnings. The company's free cash flow of $1.67 billion TTM is positive, but capital expenditures for new plants could strain cash if returns lag.