NXT

NextDC

$109.13

+4.27%
Jul 15, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Nextpower Inc. is a leading provider of intelligent, integrated solar tracker and software solutions for utility-scale and distributed generation solar projects worldwide. The company distinguishes itself as a market leader in solar tracking technology, enabling solar panels to follow the sun's movement to optimize energy production. The current investor narrative centers on Nextpower's strong growth trajectory, highlighted by a recent Q4 earnings beat and raised revenue outlook, which has driven shares higher and fueled debate about the sustainability of its momentum amid a slightly soft profit forecast.

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NXT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $109.13
Average Target $109.13
High Target $125.50
Low Target $92.76

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on NextDC's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $141.87 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$141.87

3 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

3

covering this stock

Price Range

$87 - $142

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
1 (33%)
Sell
2 (67%)

Nextpower is covered by 3 analysts, with a consensus Buy recommendation. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $9.17, with a low of $8.43 and a high of $9.82. The average revenue estimate is $6.85 billion. While explicit price targets are not provided, the strong earnings estimates imply a bullish outlook. The consensus leans bullish, supported by recent upgrades from Keybanc (Overweight from Sector Weight) and multiple Buy ratings from firms like Jefferies, UBS, and Needham. The range of EPS estimates ($8.43–$9.82) indicates moderate uncertainty, with the high end assuming continued strong demand and margin expansion, while the low end factors in potential headwinds. The recent earnings beat and raised guidance have reinforced positive sentiment. Given the limited analyst coverage (3 analysts), the stock may experience higher volatility and less efficient price discovery compared to heavily covered large caps.

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NXT Technical Analysis

Nextpower is in a strong long-term uptrend, with the stock up 78.1% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20.6% gain. The current price of $111.50 sits at 53.7% of its 52-week range ($52.61–$163.13), indicating the stock has pulled back from its highs but remains well above its lows. This positioning suggests the stock is in a corrective phase within a broader uptrend, offering a potential entry point for investors who believe the long-term trend will resume. Over the past month, the stock has declined 40.2%, while the S&P 500 gained 4.07%, resulting in a relative strength of -4.47. The 3-month change is -5.48%, contrasting with the 1-year gain of 78.1%, signaling a significant deceleration in momentum. This divergence could indicate a temporary pullback or mean reversion, but the sharp 1-month decline warrants caution. The stock's beta of 1.864 implies it is 86.4% more volatile than the market, amplifying both upside and downside moves. The 52-week high of $163.13 acts as key resistance, while the 52-week low of $52.61 provides support. A breakout above $163.13 would signal a resumption of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $52.61 would be a bearish reversal. Given the elevated beta, position sizing should account for higher-than-average volatility.

Beta

1.86

1.86x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-36.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$53-$163

Price range past year

Annual Return

+73.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodNXT ReturnS&P 500
1m-13.3%+0.0%
3m+2.2%+7.6%
6m+13.3%+9.1%
1y+73.4%+21.3%
ytd+17.6%+10.7%

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NXT Fundamental Analysis

Nextpower's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q3 FY2025, ending December 31, 2025) reporting revenue of $909.4 million, a 33.9% year-over-year increase from $679.4 million in the prior-year quarter. Revenue has grown sequentially from $864.3 million in Q1 FY2025 and $905.3 million in Q2 FY2025, indicating sustained demand. The company's revenue segments are not broken out, but the overall growth is driven by strong utility-scale solar project activity. The company is profitable, with net income of $131.2 million in the most recent quarter and a net margin of 14.4%. Gross margin was 31.7%, slightly down from 35.5% a year ago, suggesting some margin compression. However, operating margin improved to 19.4% from 22.1% in the prior year, reflecting operating leverage. The company has zero debt (debt-to-equity ratio of 0), indicating a conservative capital structure. Free cash flow (FCF) for the trailing twelve months is $589.3 million, and the most recent quarter generated $120.5 million in FCF. The current ratio of 2.45 suggests strong liquidity. ROE is a robust 25.1%, reflecting efficient use of equity capital. The company generates ample cash to fund operations and growth internally, with no reliance on external financing.

Quarterly Revenue

$909352000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+33.9%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

31.7%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$589260000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Reportable Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is NXT Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 30.4x, while the forward P/E is 19.0x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate a sharp increase in earnings, which is consistent with the company's growth trajectory. Compared to the industry average (solar industry), Nextpower's trailing P/E of 30.4x is at a premium to the sector median of approximately 22x, representing a 38% premium. This premium is justified by the company's superior revenue growth (33.9% YoY) and high ROE (25.1%), which are well above industry averages. Historically, Nextpower's trailing P/E has ranged from 5.3x (in Q4 FY2024) to 24.6x (in Q3 FY2025). The current 30.4x is above the historical range, indicating that the market is pricing in optimistic growth expectations. This suggests that any disappointment in earnings could lead to multiple contraction.

PE

30.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 5x~61x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

22.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple