Sunrun
RUN
$15.89
+4.54%
Sunrun Inc. is a leading residential solar energy company in the United States, engaged in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems, typically under long-term customer agreements. The company operates as a vertically integrated platform, distinct for its focus on owning the solar assets and generating recurring revenue through service and subscription models, positioning it as a key player in the residential solar and home electrification space. The current investor narrative is dominated by a dramatic recovery story, as the stock has surged over 117% in the past year, driven by a significant return to profitability in its most recent quarter after a period of substantial losses, sparking debate on the sustainability of this turnaround and the company's ability to navigate a high-interest-rate environment for its capital-intensive business model.…
RUN
Sunrun
$15.89
RUN 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Sunrun's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $20.66 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$20.66
6 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
6
covering this stock
Price Range
$13 - $21
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for Sunrun is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a stock with moderate institutional following which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The available data provides consensus estimates for revenue and EPS but does not include a consensus price target or buy/hold/sell distribution, making it impossible to calculate implied upside or downside or gauge the overall sentiment bias from the provided dataset. The estimated revenue range for the forecast period is wide, from a low of $2.99 billion to a high of $4.42 billion around an average of $3.77 billion, and the EPS range is $0.41 to $0.69 around an average of $0.57; this wide dispersion in both revenue and profit forecasts signals high uncertainty among analysts regarding the company's near-term financial trajectory. Recent institutional rating actions show a mix of views, with firms like UBS and Goldman Sachs maintaining Buy ratings, while others like Jefferies downgraded from Buy to Hold in late February 2026, coinciding with the stock's sharp decline, reflecting divergent opinions on the sustainability of the Q4 2025 profit surge.
Bulls vs Bears: RUN Investment Factors
The bull case, centered on a dramatic fundamental turnaround with 123.5% revenue growth and a return to profitability, currently holds stronger evidence given the concrete Q4 2025 results. However, the bear case, highlighting extreme volatility, a leveraged balance sheet, and negative free cash flow, presents substantial near-term risks. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the Q4 2025 profit surge represents a sustainable inflection point for the capital-intensive solar asset ownership model, or merely a temporary peak before financial pressures from high debt and interest rates reassert themselves. The stock's violent 45% drawdown from its 52-week high suggests the market remains deeply skeptical of sustainability.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 123.5% YoY to $1.16 billion, dramatically accelerating from $518.5 million. This indicates powerful top-line momentum and market share gains in the residential solar space.
- Return to Profitability: The company reported net income of $103.6 million in Q4 2025, a stark reversal from a $2.81 billion loss in the year-ago quarter. This demonstrates successful operational leverage and cost control as revenue scales.
- Significant Margin Expansion: Gross margin improved to 35.3% in Q4 2025 from 18.8% in Q4 2024, while net margin turned positive to 8.9%. This margin trajectory is critical for validating the asset-ownership business model's economics.
- Attractive Trailing Valuation: The stock trades at a trailing PE of 9.51x, which is historically low for the company during profitable periods. This provides a valuation cushion if earnings growth materializes as expected.
Bearish
- Extreme Volatility and Recent Crash: The stock crashed -27.91% over the past 3 months, including a severe drop from over $20 to ~$11 in late February 2026. This highlights extreme fragility and a beta of 2.25, making it twice as volatile as the market.
- Heavy Debt Burden: The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 4.75, indicating a highly leveraged balance sheet. This creates significant financial risk in a high-interest-rate environment for a capital-intensive business.
- Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow: Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is deeply negative at -$1.10 billion, despite positive operating cash flow in the latest quarter. This indicates the business model requires continuous external financing to fund growth.
- High Analyst Uncertainty: Analyst estimates show wide dispersion, with revenue forecasts ranging from $2.99B to $4.42B and EPS from $0.41 to $0.69. This reflects low consensus on the sustainability of the Q4 profit surge.
RUN Technical Analysis
The prevailing price trend is a powerful recovery from deeply oversold levels, with the stock posting a remarkable 117.88% gain over the past year. However, the current price of $14.62 sits at approximately 45% of its 52-week range ($5.38 low, $22.44 high), indicating it has recovered significantly from its lows but remains well below its peak, suggesting there is substantial room for further recovery if the fundamental turnaround holds. The stock experienced a sharp, severe correction in late February 2026, plummeting from over $20 to around $11, which is reflected in the negative 3-month and 6-month price changes of -27.91% and -18.46%, respectively. Recent short-term momentum is positive, with a 15.03% gain over the past month, signaling a potential stabilization and attempt to regain footing after the February crash, though this conflicts with the longer-term negative 3-month trend, highlighting the extreme volatility and the stock's current position in a recovery phase from that event. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week low of $5.38, which now serves as major support, and the 52-week high of $22.44 as primary resistance; a sustained breakout above $22.44 would signal a full recovery of the February losses and confirm a new bullish phase, while a breakdown below the recent lows near $11 could reignite the downtrend. The stock's beta of 2.25 confirms it is more than twice as volatile as the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given its history of sharp drawdowns, including a maximum drawdown of -55.02%.
Beta
2.25
2.25x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-55.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$5-$22
Price range past year
Annual Return
+135.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | RUN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +22.5% | +6.0% |
| 3m | +19.9% | +10.0% |
| 6m | -21.5% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +135.4% | +28.4% |
| ytd | -18.3% | +10.7% |
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RUN Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been robust, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $1.16 billion, representing a 123.5% year-over-year increase, a dramatic acceleration from the $518.5 million in Q4 2024. This explosive growth was driven by strong performance across segments, with Product revenue at $692.3 million and Service revenue at $466.5 million, indicating a balanced mix between system sales and recurring service income. The company achieved a significant milestone by returning to profitability in Q4 2025, reporting net income of $103.6 million, a stark reversal from a net loss of $2.81 billion in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin improved substantially to 35.3% in Q4 2025 from 18.8% in Q4 2024, and the net margin turned positive to 8.9%, demonstrating powerful operational leverage and cost control as revenue scaled. The balance sheet shows a highly leveraged structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.75, which is elevated and typical for asset-heavy solar financiers. Despite generating positive operating cash flow of $96.9 million in the latest quarter, the trailing twelve-month free cash flow remains deeply negative at -$1.10 billion, highlighting the company's heavy ongoing capital expenditure needs to fund its growth, which currently relies on external financing as evidenced by the high debt load.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+1.23%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.35%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is RUN Overvalued?
Given the company reported positive net income of $103.6 million in its latest quarter, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 9.51x, while the forward PE is 18.26x, based on estimated EPS of $0.565; this significant gap implies the market is pricing in expectations for earnings to more than double from the latest quarterly annualized run-rate, reflecting high growth expectations embedded in the current price. Compared to industry averages, Sunrun's trailing PE of 9.51x is not directly comparable without a provided sector average, but its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.45x and Enterprise Value-to-Sales (EV/Sales) of 6.06x provide alternative cross-sectional views; the EV/Sales multiple of 6.06x suggests the market is valuing its revenue stream at a premium when accounting for its substantial debt, which is common for growth-oriented asset-ownership models in renewable energy. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 9.51x is near the middle of its own historical range observed in recent quarters, which has swung wildly from deeply negative values during loss-making periods to as high as 60x during profitable quarters; this positioning suggests the market is currently valuing its profitability as sustainable but not excessively optimistic, especially when considering its forward PE implies significant earnings growth is already expected.
PE
9.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -126x~94x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks are pronounced, centered on Sunrun's highly leveraged capital structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.75. While Q4 showed positive net income of $103.6M, the business model remains cash-intensive, burning -$1.10B in TTM free cash flow. This creates dependency on capital markets for financing, making the company vulnerable to rising interest rates which increase its cost of capital and could pressure the profitability of new solar asset deployments. Furthermore, revenue growth of 123.5% YoY sets a high bar; any deceleration could trigger multiple compression given the forward PE of 18.26x already prices in significant future earnings growth.
Market & Competitive Risks are elevated due to the stock's extreme volatility, with a beta of 2.25 indicating it is more than twice as sensitive to market moves as the average stock. The recent 27.91% 3-month decline, including a sharp crash in late February 2026 coinciding with a Jefferies downgrade, demonstrates high sensitivity to sentiment shifts. Regulatory changes to solar incentives or net metering policies pose a persistent threat. Additionally, the stock trades at an EV/Sales of 6.06x, a premium valuation for its revenue stream that could compress if growth slows or sector rotation away from speculative growth stocks occurs.
Worst-Case Scenario involves a 'double-whammy' of slowing customer adoption due to high financing costs and a tightening of credit markets that restricts Sunrun's ability to fund its negative FCF. This could lead to a liquidity crisis, forcing asset sales or highly dilutive equity raises. In this adverse scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $5.38, representing a downside of approximately -63% from the current price of $14.62. Given the stock's history of a -55.02% maximum drawdown, such a move is within the realm of historical volatility, especially if the Q4 profitability proves unsustainable and the company returns to reporting losses.

