Generac Holdings Inc.
GNRC
$270.14
+9.02%
Generac Holdings Inc. designs and manufactures power generation equipment, serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets with standby and portable generators, outdoor power equipment, and a suite of clean energy products. The company is a market leader in backup power solutions, particularly in the residential segment, and is distinct for its strong brand recognition and comprehensive product ecosystem. The current investor narrative is intensely focused on the company's explosive exposure to the data center market, as recent strong quarterly results and an upgraded sales forecast have driven significant stock appreciation, positioning Generac as a key beneficiary of the surging demand for reliable power solutions from AI and computing infrastructure.…
GNRC
Generac Holdings Inc.
$270.14
Related headlines
GNRC 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Generac Holdings Inc.'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $351.18 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$351.18
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$216 - $351
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for GNRC appears limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates according to the data, though the institutional ratings list shows activity from more firms. The consensus sentiment leans bullish, with recent actions including reiterated 'Buy' ratings from Needham and B of A Securities in March 2026, though Citigroup downgraded to 'Neutral' in the same period. An average target price cannot be calculated from the provided data, as only EPS and revenue estimates are given, not price targets. The estimated revenue range for the forward period is $7.19 billion to $7.64 billion, with an average of $7.41 billion, indicating analyst expectations for growth. The wide revenue estimate spread (a $454 million difference between low and high) signals a high degree of uncertainty or divergence in views on the company's near-term sales trajectory, particularly around the data center opportunity. The limited explicit price target data implies that while institutional interest exists, as shown by the ratings activity, comprehensive consensus price targets may not be widely published or aggregated, which is typical for some mid-cap names and can contribute to higher volatility due to less efficient price discovery.
Bulls vs Bears: GNRC Investment Factors
The investment debate for Generac is a classic clash between a powerful new growth narrative and volatile underlying fundamentals. The bull side currently has stronger momentum, driven by the explosive potential of data center demand, a robust technical uptrend, and a valuation not at historical extremes. However, the bear case is grounded in hard financial data: declining revenue, quarterly losses, margin compression, and extreme stock volatility. The single most important tension is whether the burgeoning data center opportunity can sustainably offset the cyclical weakness and operational inconsistency in Generac's core residential and commercial markets. The resolution of this tension—visible in upcoming quarterly revenue growth and margin trends—will determine if the stock is a high-growth story or a volatile, overhyped cyclical.
Bullish
- Explosive Data Center Demand Catalyst: Recent strong quarterly results and an upgraded sales forecast, as highlighted in May 2026 news, are directly tied to surging demand for power solutions from the AI and data center market. This new growth vector is driving the stock's powerful 101.7% one-year price appreciation and is the core of the current bullish narrative.
- Strong Technical Momentum & Uptrend: The stock is in a sustained uptrend, trading near its 52-week high of $276.80 after gaining 101.7% over the past year. It has shown significant relative strength, outperforming the S&P 500 by 74.2 percentage points over the same period, indicating strong investor conviction in the growth story.
- Solid Balance Sheet & Cash Flow: Generac maintains a healthy financial position with a current ratio of 2.03, a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51, and generated $356.8 million in trailing-twelve-month free cash flow. This provides ample financial flexibility to fund the data center opportunity and weather potential cyclical downturns in its core markets.
- Valuation Not at Historical Extremes: The trailing Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.90x is near the lower end of its historical range, which has previously reached as high as 28.25x. This suggests the current price does not reflect the extreme optimism of the past, potentially offering a more reasonable entry point if the growth narrative materializes.
Bearish
- Volatile & Declining Quarterly Fundamentals: Q4 2025 revenue declined 11.6% year-over-year to $1.09B, and the company swung to a net loss of $24.5M (EPS -$0.42) from a profit a year ago. Gross margin compressed to 36.3% in Q4 from a TTM average of 38.3%, highlighting inconsistent profitability and potential operational pressures.
- Extreme Stock Volatility & High Beta: With a beta of 1.94, GNRC is nearly twice as volatile as the broader market. This is evidenced by a maximum drawdown of -32.8% within the provided price data, indicating the stock is prone to severe corrections, which increases risk for investors, especially after a 100%+ run-up.
- Valuation Dependent on Unproven Growth: The current trailing P/E of 50x is high, and the forward P/E of 22.4x, while lower, is entirely reliant on a significant earnings recovery. The PEG ratio is negative (-1.00), signaling that the market is valuing growth that has not yet materialized in consistent earnings, creating execution risk.
- Analyst Uncertainty & Limited Coverage: Only 4 analysts provide estimates, and while sentiment is mixed (with recent Buy reiterations but also a Neutral downgrade), there is no clear consensus price target. The wide revenue estimate range ($7.19B to $7.64B) indicates high uncertainty about the near-term sales trajectory.
GNRC Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 101.67% price increase over the past year. As of the latest close at $247.79, the stock is trading at approximately 90% of its 52-week high of $276.80, indicating it is near the top of its range and reflecting strong momentum, though also suggesting potential for overextension or near-term consolidation. The stock's positioning near its highs signals strong investor conviction in the company's growth narrative, particularly its data center exposure, but also leaves it vulnerable to profit-taking after such a significant run. Recent short-term momentum is exceptionally strong but shows signs of volatility, with a 15.87% gain over the past month and an 8.12% gain over the past three months. The 1-month surge significantly outpaces the 3-month performance, indicating a recent acceleration in buying pressure, likely catalyzed by the late April/early May earnings-driven rally. However, the stock's beta of 1.94 confirms it is nearly twice as volatile as the broader market, which explains the sharp intra-trend pullbacks visible in the price data, such as the decline from the May highs. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $118.09, while immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $276.80. A decisive breakout above $276.80 would signal a continuation of the powerful uptrend and could target new all-time highs, while a breakdown below the recent consolidation low near $185.50 (from late March) would suggest a deeper correction is underway. The high beta of 1.94 underscores the stock's high-risk, high-reward profile, necessitating careful position sizing for risk management given its propensity for large swings relative to the S&P 500.
Beta
1.94
1.94x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$118-$277
Price range past year
Annual Return
+118.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | GNRC Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +26.4% | +4.4% |
| 3m | +17.9% | +9.3% |
| 6m | +85.0% | +10.5% |
| 1y | +118.1% | +28.8% |
| ytd | +91.5% | +9.3% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
GNRC Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been volatile, with the most recent Q4 2025 quarterly revenue of $1.09 billion representing an 11.6% year-over-year decline. However, this masks a positive sequential trend from earlier in the year, where Q3 2025 revenue was $1.11 billion and Q2 was $1.06 billion, suggesting stabilization after a post-peak normalization. The revenue segment data for the latest period shows Residential Power Products ($626.7 million) as the largest contributor, followed by Commercial and Industrial ($358.3 million), indicating the core business lines remain intact despite the overall yearly contraction. Profitability has been inconsistent, with the company swinging to a net loss of $24.5 million in Q4 2025 (EPS of -$0.42) from a net income of $128.9 million in Q4 2024. The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 36.29%, which is below the trailing-twelve-month gross margin of 38.29% from the valuation data, indicating recent margin compression. This quarterly loss contrasts with profitability in the preceding three quarters of 2025 (Q1 net income of $43.8 million, Q2 of $74.0 million, Q3 of $66.2 million), highlighting significant quarter-to-quarter variability, potentially due to product mix, costs, or one-time items. The balance sheet and cash flow position appear solid, with a healthy current ratio of 2.03 and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.51. The company generated $356.8 million in trailing-twelve-month free cash flow, providing strong internal funding for growth initiatives and share repurchases. The return on equity (ROE) of 6.06% is modest but positive, and the robust free cash flow yield, implied by the market cap and FCF, supports financial flexibility and reduces reliance on external debt markets for capital.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.11%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.36%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$356780999.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is GNRC Overvalued?
Given the most recent quarterly net income is negative (-$24.5 million), we lead with the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio for valuation. The trailing PS ratio is 1.90x, while the forward PS, implied by the market cap and analyst revenue estimates, is approximately 1.08x (market cap of $7.98B / estimated revenue of $7.41B). The significant gap between the trailing and forward multiples suggests the market is pricing in a substantial revenue growth recovery and margin expansion, aligning with the bullish data center narrative. Compared to the Industrials sector, a PS ratio of 1.90x appears reasonable, though a direct industry average is not provided in the data; the valuation must be assessed in the context of the company's growth profile and margin potential. The current premium or discount is difficult to quantify without a peer set, but the forward multiple compression indicates expectations for significant sales growth to justify the current price. Historically, the stock's own valuation has been volatile; the current PS ratio of 1.90x is near the lower end of its historical range observed in the provided data, which shows PS ratios fluctuating from as high as 28.25x in mid-2021 down to recent levels. This suggests the stock is not trading at bubble-era valuations, and the current multiple may reflect a more normalized level, potentially offering a better entry point if the growth narrative materializes, as opposed to the extreme optimism priced in during 2021.
PE
50.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range -81x~134x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.5x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Generac faces significant earnings volatility, as evidenced by its swing from a $128.9M net income in Q4 2024 to a $24.5M loss in Q4 2025. Gross margin compression, from 38.3% TTM to 36.3% in the latest quarter, indicates potential pricing pressure or unfavorable product mix. The company's valuation (50x trailing P/E) is entirely dependent on a sharp earnings recovery, creating high execution risk. While the balance sheet is solid, the core business remains exposed to economic cycles affecting residential and commercial construction, which could delay the anticipated growth rebound.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's high beta of 1.94 makes it exceptionally sensitive to broader market downturns, and its 100%+ annual gain leaves it vulnerable to sector rotation out of high-momentum, high-volatility names. Trading near its 52-week high, the risk of valuation compression is elevated if the data center narrative fails to deliver immediate results. Competitive risks are inherent as larger industrial and electrical equipment firms may also target the lucrative data center power market. The limited analyst coverage (4 analysts) can contribute to higher volatility due to less efficient price discovery.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a double disappointment: the data center sales ramp proves slower than expected, coinciding with a deeper cyclical downturn in the core generator business. This would lead to consecutive earnings misses, analyst downgrades, and a rapid de-rating of the stock's premium multiple. Coupled with a broader market correction amplified by the stock's high beta, this could trigger a severe sell-off. A realistic downside could see the stock retreat towards its 52-week low of $118.09, representing a potential loss of approximately -52% from the current price of $247.79.

