The Hartford
HIG
$138.02
+0.15%
The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a diversified insurance and financial services company providing property and casualty insurance, group benefits, and mutual funds, primarily operating in the U.S. It is a well-established player in the insurance industry, recognized for service excellence and sustainability practices, with a strong focus on commercial lines through its Business Insurance segment. The company is currently navigating a period of solid revenue growth and improved profitability, driven by disciplined underwriting and favorable market conditions, while also managing the impact of a competitive pricing environment and potential catastrophe losses. Investors are closely watching its ability to sustain margin expansion and generate strong free cash flow, which supports its capital return program.…
HIG
The Hartford
$138.02
Investment Opinion: Should I buy HIG Today?
Rating: Buy. HIG offers a compelling combination of value and growth, with a forward PE of 10.53x and a PEG of 0.36, indicating undervaluation. The consensus analyst rating is 'Buy' with an average target of $149.85, implying a 3.7% upside. The company's strong earnings growth, low beta, and solid free cash flow support a positive outlook.
Sign up to view all
HIG 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish, driven by strong fundamental performance and attractive valuation. The stock's low beta and solid free cash flow make it a defensive pick, while the PEG ratio suggests upside. However, the limited upside to analyst targets and recent downgrade warrant caution. The stance would be upgraded if the stock breaks above $146, and downgraded if it falls below $135.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Hartford's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $149.85 and implied upside of +8.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$149.85
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+8.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$135 - $164
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is robust with 20 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 2.30 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $149.85, implying an upside of 3.7% from the current price of $144.51. The distribution shows a bullish tilt, with a majority of analysts rating it as Buy or Overweight, though recent actions include a downgrade by Piper Sandler from Overweight to Neutral in July 2026. The target range is $135.00 to $164.00, with the low target suggesting a potential downside of 6.6% and the high target implying an upside of 13.5%. The wide spread of $29 indicates moderate uncertainty, but the overall sentiment remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and a low beta of 0.46, which may appeal to income-oriented investors.
Bulls vs Bears: HIG Investment Factors
HIG presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The bull case is supported by strong earnings growth, a low PEG ratio, and defensive characteristics, while the bear case highlights limited upside to analyst targets and relative underperformance. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the fundamental momentum and valuation support. The key tension is whether the stock can re-rate higher as earnings grow, or if it remains stuck in a value trap with limited multiple expansion. The resolution of this will depend on continued margin expansion and the ability to grow premiums in a competitive environment.
Bullish
- Strong Earnings Growth: Q1 2026 net income surged to $856M, up 36% YoY from $630M, with EPS of $3.08 vs $2.18. Net margin expanded to 11.85% from 9.25%, reflecting improved underwriting and cost control.
- Undervalued on PEG: PEG ratio of 0.36 is well below 1, indicating the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate. With a forward PE of 10.53x, the market is pricing in modest growth, but the actual growth trajectory is stronger.
- Low Beta Defensive Appeal: Beta of 0.46 makes HIG a low-volatility stock, attractive for risk-averse investors. This is particularly appealing in uncertain markets, as it provides downside protection relative to the broader market.
- Solid Free Cash Flow: TTM free cash flow stands at $5.82B, providing ample capacity for dividends and buybacks. The payout ratio is only 16%, leaving significant room for capital return increases.
Bearish
- Limited Upside to Average Target: The average analyst target of $149.85 is only 3.7% above the current price of $144.51. This suggests limited near-term appreciation potential, especially after the recent run-up.
- Underperformance vs S&P 500: HIG's 1-year return of +12.19% lags the S&P 500's +21.46% by 9.27%. This relative weakness may persist if the market continues to favor growth stocks over value/defensive names.
- Recent Analyst Downgrade: Piper Sandler downgraded HIG from Overweight to Neutral in July 2026, reflecting concerns about valuation or near-term catalysts. This could signal waning momentum.
- Catastrophe Loss Exposure: As a P&C insurer, HIG is exposed to catastrophe losses. The 52-week low of $120.33 was likely driven by such events, and any major hurricane or wildfire could pressure earnings.
HIG Technical Analysis
The stock is in a clear uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +12.19%, though it has underperformed the S&P 500's +21.46% gain. Currently trading at $144.51, it sits near the upper end of its 52-week range (low: $120.33, high: $146.07), at approximately 93.5% of the range midpoint, indicating strong momentum but also potential overextension. The price has recently broken above the $143 level, suggesting bullish sentiment, but the relative strength versus the S&P 500 over 1 year is -9.27%, showing lagging performance.
Beta
0.46
0.46x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$120-$146
Price range past year
Annual Return
+5.1%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HIG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.6% | +2.9% |
| 3m | +3.1% | +5.0% |
| 6m | -2.3% | +13.9% |
| 1y | +5.1% | +20.4% |
| ytd | +0.7% | +13.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
HIG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been steady, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $7.226 billion, up 6.11% year-over-year, and a sequential increase from $6.81 billion in Q1 2025. Over the past four quarters, revenue has grown from $6.81 billion to $7.226 billion, indicating a consistent upward trajectory. The company's net income for Q1 2026 was $856 million, with a net margin of 11.85%, up from 9.25% in the year-ago quarter, reflecting improved profitability. Gross margin for the quarter was 44.67%, which is typical for the insurance industry, and operating margin stood at 16.84%, showing efficient cost management.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+6.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$5.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is HIG Overvalued?
Given positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 10.20x, while the forward PE is 10.53x, indicating that the market expects earnings to remain stable, with a slight premium for future growth. The PEG ratio of 0.36 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate, as it is well below 1. Compared to the industry average PE of 15x (based on available data), HIG trades at a 32% discount, which is justified by its lower growth but also highlights potential value. Historically, the PE has ranged from 6.1x to 14.9x over the past five years, and the current 10.2x is near the middle of that range, suggesting fair valuation.
PE
10.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 6x~15x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are moderate. HIG has a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.23, indicating conservative leverage. However, the company's earnings are sensitive to catastrophe losses, which can cause significant quarterly volatility. The net margin of 11.85% is solid but could be pressured by rising claims costs. Free cash flow of $5.82B is strong, but a significant portion is returned to shareholders, leaving less for organic growth. The payout ratio of 16% is conservative, but any cut in dividends would be a major negative signal.
FAQ
The key risks include catastrophe losses, which can cause significant quarterly earnings volatility; competitive pricing pressure that could compress margins; and valuation compression if the PE reverts to its historical low of 6.1x, implying a 40% downside. Additionally, the stock has underperformed the S&P 500, and a recent analyst downgrade suggests potential sentiment risk. The low beta of 0.46 provides some downside protection, but it also limits upside in strong markets.
The 12-month forecast is moderately positive. The base case (50% probability) targets $145-$150, aligning with the analyst average of $149.85. The bull case (30% probability) targets $155-$164, driven by strong earnings and favorable conditions. The bear case (20% probability) targets $120-$135, reflecting potential catastrophe losses or market downturns. The most likely scenario is the base case, with steady growth and a modest upside of 3.7%.
HIG is undervalued based on its PEG ratio of 0.36, which is well below 1, and its PE of 10.2x trailing and 10.53x forward, both below the industry average of 15x. The stock's historical PE range is 6.1x to 14.9x, and the current 10.2x is near the middle, suggesting fair value. However, the market is pricing in modest growth, as the forward PE is slightly higher than trailing. Overall, the valuation is attractive, especially considering the company's strong earnings growth and low beta.
HIG is a good buy for investors seeking a defensive, value-oriented stock with a low beta of 0.46 and a dividend yield of 1.58%. The stock trades at a forward PE of 10.53x, a 30% discount to the industry average of 15x, and has a PEG of 0.36, indicating undervaluation. Analyst consensus is 'Buy' with an average target of $149.85, implying a 3.7% upside. However, the upside is limited, and the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past year. It is best suited for long-term investors who value stability and income over high growth.
HIG is more suitable for long-term investment due to its low beta of 0.46, stable earnings, and dividend yield of 1.58%. The stock's growth is moderate, and it may not provide significant short-term gains. However, its defensive characteristics make it a good hold for 3-5 years, allowing for dividend accumulation and potential capital appreciation. Short-term traders may find limited volatility, but the stock's low beta reduces the potential for large swings.