Huntington Ingalls Industries
HII
$326.13
-10.25%
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the largest independent military shipbuilder in the United States, operating within the Aerospace & Defense industry. Its core business is the design, construction, and maintenance of nuclear and non-nuclear-powered ships for the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, with key segments including the Ingalls and Newport News shipyards, as well as a Mission Technologies division focused on uncrewed systems and IT services. The company holds a distinct competitive identity as a critical, sole-source provider for key naval assets, such as the only producer of Gerald Ford-class aircraft carriers and a major subcontractor for nuclear submarines. The current investor narrative is heavily driven by the prospect of a significantly expanded U.S. defense budget, with recent news highlighting a proposed $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget for 2027, which is seen as a direct catalyst for shipbuilding revenues, though this is juxtaposed against emerging themes of disruption from private contractors developing autonomous naval vessels.…
HII
Huntington Ingalls Industries
$326.13
Related headlines
HII 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Huntington Ingalls Industries's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $423.97 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$423.97
4 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
4
covering this stock
Price Range
$261 - $424
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for HII is limited, with only 4 analysts providing estimates, which is typical for a specialized defense contractor of its size. The institutional ratings data shows a recent mix of actions: B of A Securities upgraded from 'Underperform' to 'Neutral' in February 2026, while other firms like Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and TD Cowen have maintained 'Buy' ratings. This suggests a neutral-to-bullish leaning among the limited coverage universe, though the small sample size limits the strength of any consensus signal. The average analyst revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $15.90 billion, with a range from $15.66 billion to $16.29 billion. The average EPS estimate is $26.57, ranging from $26.04 to $27.41. The relatively tight range between the low and high revenue and EPS estimates indicates a fair degree of conviction among covering analysts regarding the company's near-term financial trajectory, likely due to the visibility provided by long-term Navy contracts. The limited coverage itself implies the stock may be under-followed by the broader institutional community, which can contribute to higher volatility and periods of pricing inefficiency relative to its defense peers.
Bulls vs Bears: HII Investment Factors
The evidence presents a balanced but tense picture. Bullish factors, led by accelerating revenue growth (15.71% YoY) and powerful free cash flow ($1.06B TTM), are grounded in strong fundamentals and a favorable macro defense budget environment. Bearish concerns center on a valuation that appears full (trailing P/E 22.09x at the high end of its historical range) and recent sharp technical deterioration (-14.25% over 3 months). Currently, the bearish side has stronger near-term evidence due to the stock's pronounced correction and high relative valuation, which increases sensitivity to any disappointment. The single most important tension in the investment debate is whether the proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget will translate into sustained, profitable growth for HII's traditional shipyards, or if that growth will be capped or disrupted by new competitive threats and the company's inherent margin constraints.
Bullish
- Accelerating Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue grew 15.71% YoY to $3.48B, marking a multi-quarter acceleration from $2.73B in Q1 2025. This robust growth is a direct beneficiary of the expanding U.S. defense budget narrative, providing strong fundamental momentum.
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: The company generated $516M in FCF in Q4 2025 and $1.06B over the trailing twelve months. This robust cash generation, coupled with a reasonable debt-to-equity of 0.62, provides significant financial flexibility for dividends, buybacks, and investments.
- Defensive, Low-Beta Profile: With a beta of 0.356, HII is approximately 64% less volatile than the S&P 500. This defensive characteristic, combined with its critical sole-source role in naval shipbuilding, makes it a potential portfolio stabilizer during market downturns.
- Analyst Conviction in Forward Estimates: The average analyst EPS estimate for the upcoming period is $26.57, with a tight range from $26.04 to $27.41. This narrow band indicates high conviction in the company's earnings trajectory, supported by the visibility of long-term Navy contracts.
Bearish
- Valuation at High End of Historical Range: The trailing P/E of 22.09x sits above the company's own 5-year historical range, which has seen peaks in the mid-20s. Trading near this high end suggests much of the optimistic budget outlook is already priced in, limiting room for multiple expansion.
- Recent Sharp Technical Correction: The stock is down -8.32% over the past month and -14.25% over three months, underperforming the S&P 500 by -18.30% in the last month. This places the price at approximately 59% of its 52-week range ($215.05 to $460), signaling a loss of momentum.
- Low and Volatile Profit Margins: Q4 2025 net margin was 4.57% and gross margin was 11.57%, which are low and characteristic of capital-intensive shipbuilding. Quarterly net margins have fluctuated between ~3.7% and 5.5% over two years, indicating earnings volatility and sensitivity to cost overruns.
- Emerging Competitive Disruption Risk: Recent news highlights private contractors like Saronic developing autonomous naval vessels, and the $14B icebreaker program bypassing major defense primes. This represents a potential long-term threat to HII's traditional shipbuilding business model.
HII Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced long-term uptrend but has recently entered a corrective phase. The 1-year price change of +58.52% underscores a powerful bullish trend over the past year, yet the current price of $360.60 sits at approximately 59% of its 52-week range ($215.05 to $460.00), indicating a significant retreat from its highs and positioning it in the lower half of its annual band, which suggests a potential value opportunity or a consolidation period after a strong run. Recent momentum has sharply diverged from the longer-term trend, with the stock down -8.32% over the past month and -14.25% over the past three months, signaling a clear deceleration and a corrective pullback. This short-term weakness is further evidenced by a stark -18.30 relative strength reading against the S&P 500 over the past month, indicating significant underperformance during the market's recent advance. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $215.05, though a more immediate support level is likely near the recent lows around $360. Resistance is clearly defined at the 52-week high of $460.00. A decisive breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a sustained breakdown below the recent consolidation range could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.356 indicates it is approximately 64% less volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is unusually low for an industrial company and suggests it has behaved more as a defensive holding, though recent price swings show it is not immune to sector-specific volatility.
Beta
0.29
0.29x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-28.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$215-$460
Price range past year
Annual Return
+39.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HII Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -17.8% | +10.4% |
| 3m | -21.1% | +5.5% |
| 6m | +6.8% | +8.0% |
| 1y | +39.9% | +28.4% |
| ytd | -6.8% | +6.1% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
HII Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth is robust and accelerating, driven by strong defense budgets. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 2025) was $3.48 billion, representing a 15.71% year-over-year growth rate. This growth has been consistent, with sequential quarterly revenues in 2025 showing a steady climb from $2.73B (Q1) to $3.48B (Q4), indicating a multi-quarter acceleration in the business. Segment data reveals Newport News Shipbuilding as the largest contributor at $1.89 billion, followed by Ingalls at $889 million and Mission Technologies at $765 million for the reported period. The company is profitable with stable, though modest, margins. Net income for Q4 2025 was $159 million, translating to a net margin of 4.57%. The gross margin for the quarter was 11.57%, which is consistent with the company's historical profile in the capital-intensive shipbuilding industry. While quarterly net margins have fluctuated between approximately 3.7% and 5.5% over the past two years, the trend in 2025 has been one of stability around the 4.5-5.0% range, indicating controlled cost execution amid revenue growth. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged but generates substantial cash flow. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.62, indicating a reasonable level of financial leverage. More importantly, the company generated strong free cash flow of $516 million in Q4 2025 and has a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.06 billion. This robust cash generation, coupled with a current ratio of 1.13, provides solid liquidity. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 11.93% demonstrates adequate efficiency in generating profits from shareholder equity, supported by the healthy cash flow.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.5B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+0.15%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.11%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is HII Overvalued?
Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 22.09x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 17.72x. This gap suggests the market is pricing in expectations for significant earnings growth in the coming year, aligning with the visible revenue acceleration and potential budget tailwinds. Compared to sector averages, HII's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its trailing PE of 22.09x is above the provided industry average PE of 17.72x (implied by the forward PE data point, assuming it serves as a proxy), indicating a premium. However, its Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.07 is relatively modest for a defense prime contractor. This premium on earnings is likely justified by the company's unique, sole-source position in critical naval programs and its accelerating revenue growth trajectory, which may outpace broader industrials. Historically, the stock's current trailing PE of 22.09x sits above its own 5-year historical range, which, based on the provided data, has seen peaks in the mid-20s and troughs below 10x. Trading near the higher end of its historical band suggests the market has already priced in a significant portion of the optimistic outlook regarding defense budget expansion. This leaves less room for multiple expansion and increases sensitivity to any execution missteps or budget disappointments.
PE
22.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~26x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
13.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: HII faces risks from its low and volatile profitability margins. With a Q4 2025 net margin of 4.57% and gross margin of 11.57%, the business is highly sensitive to cost inflation and execution missteps on complex, multi-year contracts, as seen in quarterly net margin fluctuations between 3.7% and 5.5%. While the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62 is manageable, the company's revenue is overwhelmingly concentrated with the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, creating dependency on specific congressional appropriations and program awards. Any delay or cancellation of a major program like the Columbia-class submarine or Ford-class carrier would have an outsized impact.
Market & Competitive Risks: The primary market risk is valuation compression. Trading at a trailing P/E of 22.09x, above the implied industry average of 17.72x and near the high end of its own historical range, the stock is vulnerable to a de-rating if growth decelerates or investor sentiment towards defense stocks cools. Competitively, emerging threats from private contractors developing autonomous vessels (e.g., Saronic) and the Navy's potential pivot towards faster, cheaper unmanned platforms represent a disruptive long-term risk to the traditional capital shipbuilding model, as evidenced by recent news of the $14B icebreaker contract bypassing major primes.
Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a combination of defense budget cuts following political shifts, significant cost overruns on key shipbuilding programs that compress already thin margins, and accelerated competitive disruption from autonomous vessel adoption. This could trigger multiple compression from the current elevated P/E, analyst downgrades, and a re-test of the stock's 52-week low. From the current price of $360.60, a realistic severe downside could be a -40% decline to approximately $215, aligning with the 52-week low and representing the stock's maximum drawdown potential in a crisis of confidence regarding its core business model.

