Harley-Davidson
HOG
$27.85
+1.31%
Harley-Davidson, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles, offering custom, cruising, and touring models, along with related parts, accessories, and merchandise. The company also operates Harley-Davidson Financial Services, which provides wholesale and retail financing, and has expanded into adventure touring with the Pan America and electric motorcycles under the LiveWire brand. With approximately 34% share of the U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market in 2025, Harley-Davidson remains the dominant player in its niche, though it faces challenges from shifting demographics and intense competition. The current investor narrative centers on the company's turnaround efforts, including new product launches, cost restructuring, and a strategic focus on core markets, while grappling with declining revenue and a recent quarterly loss that has raised questions about the pace of recovery.…
HOG
Harley-Davidson
$27.85
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy HOG Today?
We rate Harley-Davidson as a Hold. The stock has strong momentum and is trading at attractive valuation multiples, but the fundamental deterioration and high uncertainty warrant caution. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $27.36, implying a slight downside of 1.5% from the current price, which does not provide a compelling risk-reward.
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HOG 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock's low valuation and strong momentum are offset by the severe revenue decline and recent loss. The key factor is whether the company can stabilize revenue and return to profitability. If the turnaround shows progress, the stock could rise to the high target, but if it fails, it could fall to the low target. The wide analyst range and mixed ratings suggest that the market is uncertain about the outcome. We would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth turns positive and margins improve, and downgrade to bearish if the dividend is cut or losses widen.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Harley-Davidson's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $27.64 and implied upside of -0.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$27.64
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-0.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$17 - $33
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $17.00 to a high of $32.00, representing a wide spread of 88% between the low and high, which reflects significant uncertainty about the company's future performance. The high target of $32.00 implies a 15.2% upside from the current price and likely assumes a successful turnaround with revenue stabilization and margin recovery, while the low target of $17.00 suggests a scenario of continued demand weakness and potential further deterioration. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of actions, with no major upgrades or downgrades in the past few months, but the presence of Underweight ratings from Morgan Stanley indicates that some analysts remain bearish on the stock's near-term prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: HOG Investment Factors
Harley-Davidson presents a classic turnaround situation with strong momentum and attractive valuation metrics, but the fundamental picture is clouded by a sharp revenue decline and a recent loss. The bull case rests on the company's dominant market position, low valuation multiples, and the potential for earnings recovery, while the bear case highlights the severity of the demand downturn and the risk that the turnaround fails. Currently, the evidence is balanced but slightly tilted toward the bearish side given the magnitude of the revenue drop and negative margins. The most critical tension is whether the recent revenue decline is a temporary cyclical dip or a structural shift in demand for heavyweight motorcycles, which will determine if the stock's low valuation is justified or a value trap.
Bullish
- Strong price momentum and relative strength: HOG has surged 36.0% over the past six months and 34.6% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 by 22.2 percentage points over six months. This momentum reflects improving investor sentiment and a successful turnaround narrative.
- Undervalued on forward earnings and sales: The forward P/E of 14.03x and P/S of 0.55x are low, suggesting the market is pricing in a significant earnings recovery. The EV/EBITDA of 3.64x is also attractive, indicating potential upside if the turnaround gains traction.
- Dominant market position and brand strength: Harley-Davidson holds approximately 34% of the U.S. heavyweight motorcycle market, a leading position that provides pricing power and a loyal customer base. This brand equity supports long-term recovery efforts.
- Analyst consensus is Buy with upside potential: The average analyst target price is $27.36, slightly below the current price, but the high target of $32.00 implies 15.2% upside. The consensus recommendation is 'buy' with a mean score of 2.5, indicating moderate optimism.
Bearish
- Sharp revenue decline and negative growth: Revenue in Q4 2025 fell 27.8% year-over-year to $496 million, and the multi-quarter trend shows a decline from $1.73 billion in Q1 2024. This indicates a structural demand problem, not just seasonality.
- Recent quarterly loss and negative margins: Q4 2025 reported a net loss of $279 million and a gross margin of -22.8%, a dramatic deterioration from positive margins in prior quarters. This raises concerns about the company's ability to return to profitability.
- High valuation risk if recovery stalls: The forward P/E of 14.03x assumes EPS of $2.83, but if the revenue decline continues, earnings estimates could be cut, leading to multiple expansion on lower earnings. The stock trades near the top of its 52-week range, leaving limited upside.
- Weak relative strength over one year: Despite recent gains, HOG underperformed the S&P 500 by 19.6 percentage points over the past year, indicating persistent fundamental challenges. The stock is still 11% below its 52-week high of $31.25.
HOG Technical Analysis
Harley-DDavidson's stock has been in a strong recovery phase over the past year, with the price up 0.8% over the last 12 months, but more notably, it has surged 36.0% over the past six months and 34.6% year-to-date. The current price of $27.78 sits at 88.9% of its 52-week range (between $17.09 and $31.25), indicating the stock is trading near the upper end of its range, which typically reflects positive momentum and investor confidence, though it also suggests the stock may be approaching overbought conditions. The 52-week low of $17.09 was set in early 2026, and the stock has since rebounded sharply, but it remains about 11% below its 52-week high of $31.25, suggesting there is still overhead resistance to overcome.
Beta
1.29
1.29x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-44.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$17-$31
Price range past year
Annual Return
-3.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HOG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.3% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +15.5% | +1.5% |
| 6m | +54.7% | +11.7% |
| 1y | -3.0% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +34.9% | +12.3% |
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HOG Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been on a declining trajectory, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) showing revenue of $496 million, a 27.8% year-over-year decrease, and a significant drop from the $1.34 billion reported in Q3 2025. This sharp decline is partly due to seasonality, but the year-over-year growth rate of -27.8% indicates a structural slowdown, with the company facing weaker demand for its motorcycles. The revenue segments show that Motorcycles contributed $193.9 million, Parts & Accessories $116.5 million, and Financial Services $105.6 million in the latest quarter, but all segments are under pressure as the company works through inventory and demand challenges. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue falling from $1.73 billion in Q1 2024 to $496 million in Q4 2025, a clear deceleration that underscores the severity of the downturn.
Quarterly Revenue
$496158000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-27.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-22.8%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$415243000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HOG Overvalued?
Given that Harley-Davidson reported a net loss of $279 million in the most recent quarter, the trailing P/E ratio is not meaningful, so we focus on the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which stands at 0.55x based on trailing twelve-month revenue. The forward P/E ratio is 14.03x, implying that analysts expect earnings to recover significantly, with estimated EPS of $2.83 for the next fiscal year. The gap between the trailing P/S and the forward P/E suggests the market is pricing in a substantial earnings rebound, which is optimistic given the current revenue decline. The EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 3.64x is also low, reflecting the market's skepticism about near-term profitability.
PE
7.3x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 2x~11x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant. The company reported a net loss of $279 million in Q4 2025, with a gross margin of -22.8%, indicating severe operational inefficiencies. Revenue has declined 27.8% year-over-year, and the multi-quarter trend shows a drop from $1.73 billion in Q1 2024 to $496 million in Q4 2025, suggesting a persistent demand problem. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97 is manageable, but the negative earnings and cash flow pressures could strain liquidity if the downturn persists. The company's reliance on discretionary consumer spending makes it vulnerable to economic cycles, and the recent loss raises questions about its ability to maintain dividend payments, which currently yield 3.5%.