ISRG

Intuitive Surgical

$379.50

-6.78%
Jul 14, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Intuitive Surgical develops, produces, and markets the da Vinci robotic system for minimally invasive surgery, along with instrumentation, accessories, and warranty services. As the dominant player in robotic-assisted surgery with over 10,000 da Vinci systems installed globally, it holds a near-monopoly in the field. The current investor narrative centers on strong demand and earnings beats, tempered by competitive threats from Medtronic's Hugo robot and a recent FDA safety concern over its stapler, creating debate about growth sustainability and valuation.

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ISRG 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $379.50
Average Target $379.50
High Target $436.42
Low Target $322.57

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intuitive Surgical's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $493.35 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$493.35

15 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

15

covering this stock

Price Range

$304 - $493

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (27%)
Hold
7 (47%)
Sell
4 (27%)

The stock is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. Recent ratings include multiple Buy/Overweight actions from firms like Citigroup, Barclays, and BTIG, though UBS maintains a Neutral stance. The average analyst EPS estimate for the next fiscal year is $17.08, with a range of $16.41 to $18.17, and average revenue estimate of $18.74 billion. While explicit price targets are not provided, the EPS estimates imply a forward PE of 23.8x based on the current price, suggesting significant upside if achieved. The consensus recommendation is likely a Buy, given the preponderance of positive ratings. The target range implied by EPS estimates (low $16.41, high $18.17) suggests a wide spread of 10.7%, indicating moderate uncertainty. The high estimate assumes continued strong procedure growth and market share gains, while the low estimate may factor in competitive pressure from Medtronic's Hugo robot or regulatory headwinds. Recent upgrades from Freedom Capital Markets and Citigroup (from Neutral to Buy) signal improving sentiment, while the FDA stapler concern introduces downside risk. Overall, the analyst community appears cautiously optimistic, with the average target implying upside from current levels, but the wide range reflects the debate over valuation and competitive dynamics.

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ISRG Technical Analysis

Intuitive Surgical is in a sustained downtrend, with the stock down 22.7% over the past year and currently trading at 67.3% of its 52-week range (price $406.78 vs. 52-week high $603.88 and low $396.68). The price sits near the low end of the range, suggesting a potential value opportunity but also reflecting persistent selling pressure and bearish sentiment. The 1-year price change of -22.7% contrasts sharply with the S&P 500's +20.6% gain, indicating significant relative weakness. Short-term momentum remains negative but shows signs of stabilization: the 1-month change is -1.3% and the 3-month change is -9.7%, both still negative but less severe than the 6-month decline of -30.6%. This deceleration in the rate of decline could hint at a potential bottoming process, though the stock has not yet confirmed a reversal. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is deeply negative across all timeframes, with a 1-month relative strength of -5.3% and a 1-year relative strength of -43.3%, underscoring persistent underperformance. Key support is at the 52-week low of $396.68, a break below which could trigger further downside toward $380. Resistance is at the 52-week high of $603.88, and a breakout above that level would signal a major trend reversal. The stock's beta of 1.46 indicates it is 46% more volatile than the market, meaning amplified moves in both directions, which is critical for risk management.

Beta

1.46

1.46x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-36.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$379-$604

Price range past year

Annual Return

-26.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodISRG ReturnS&P 500
1m-7.7%+1.4%
3m-19.0%+7.4%
6m-29.9%+8.6%
1y-26.5%+20.3%
ytd-32.5%+10.3%

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ISRG Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is robust and accelerating: Q4 2025 revenue of $2.866 billion grew 18.8% year-over-year, up from 18.1% in Q3 2025 and 15.0% in Q2 2025. The revenue trajectory is clearly accelerating, driven by strong demand for instruments and accessories ($1.658 billion) and systems ($786 million), which together account for 85% of total revenue. Services revenue of $422 million provides a stable recurring base. This growth acceleration supports the investment case for a company benefiting from increasing adoption of robotic surgery globally. Profitability is excellent: net income for Q4 2025 was $794.8 million, with a net margin of 27.7%, while gross margin was 66.4%. Operating margin improved to 30.2% in Q4 2025 from 25.7% in Q1 2025, showing margin expansion as revenue scales. The company is solidly profitable with a trailing PE of 70.8x, but the high margins are typical for a medical device leader with a dominant installed base. The balance sheet is fortress-like: debt-to-equity is just 0.017, indicating virtually no leverage, and the current ratio is 4.87, reflecting ample liquidity. Free cash flow for Q4 2025 was $730 million, and trailing twelve-month FCF was $2.49 billion, providing strong internal funding for growth. ROE of 16.0% and ROA of 10.2% demonstrate efficient capital use, though the high FCF yield of 1.2% (based on market cap) is modest due to the premium valuation.

Quarterly Revenue

$2.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+18.8%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

66.4%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Instruments and Accessories
Services
Systems

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Valuation Analysis: Is ISRG Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the PE ratio. The trailing PE is 70.8x, while the forward PE is 34.5x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests a forward earnings growth rate of over 100%, which is aggressive but supported by recent EPS growth (Q4 2025 EPS of $2.24 vs. $1.92 a year ago). Compared to the medical devices industry average PE of approximately 25x, Intuitive Surgical trades at a 183% premium on a trailing basis. This premium is partially justified by its dominant market position, high margins (net margin 28.4% vs. industry average ~15%), and strong revenue growth (18.8% YoY). However, the premium is extreme and leaves little room for error. Historically, the stock's trailing PE has ranged from 48x to 84x over the past five years. The current 70.8x is near the upper end of that range, indicating that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations. While the forward PE of 34.5x is more moderate, it still implies a premium to the industry and requires continued strong execution to justify.

PE

70.8x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 49x~84x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

49.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple