LUNR

Intuitive Machines

$29.36

-12.70%
Jun 5, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure and services company focused on enabling sustained human activity beyond Earth, operating within the Aerospace & Defense industry. It has established itself as a key commercial player in the emerging cislunar economy, designing, building, and operating space systems as infrastructure-as-a-service for government and commercial customers. The current investor narrative is dominated by extreme volatility tied to sentiment around the broader space sector, particularly the upcoming SpaceX IPO, and the company's own aggressive capital raising activities, which have recently triggered sharp sell-offs despite a preceding rally fueled by major contract wins and speculative growth expectations.

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LUNR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $29.36
Average Target $29.36
High Target $33.763999999999996
Low Target $24.956

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intuitive Machines's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $38.17 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$38.17

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$23 - $38

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Analyst coverage is limited with only one firm providing explicit estimates, resulting in insufficient data to determine a meaningful consensus recommendation, average target price, or implied upside/downside. This lack of coverage is typical for small-cap, recently public companies in a speculative sector and implies higher volatility, less efficient price discovery, and that the stock's moves are primarily driven by retail sentiment, sector news flow (like the SpaceX IPO), and institutional trading of limited shares rather than deep fundamental analysis. The wide dispersion in recent institutional ratings actions—including a downgrade from Stifel in January and maintained Buy ratings from others—further underscores the high uncertainty and binary nature of the investment thesis, where opinions are sharply divided on the company's path to profitability and its ability to capture a dominant market position in the commercial space race.

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LUNR Technical Analysis

The stock is in a powerful but volatile long-term uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 204.07% gain over the past year. As of the latest close at $33.63, the price sits approximately 66% of the way up from its 52-week low of $7.78 towards its high of $46.75, indicating it has retreated significantly from recent peaks but remains well above its lows, suggesting a cooling off from overextended momentum. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong but is showing signs of a sharp reversal; the stock surged 35.60% over the past month and 90.75% over three months, yet the price has fallen -0.59% on the day and from a peak near $46 in late May, signaling a potential short-term trend exhaustion or profit-taking phase following the parabolic move. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $7.78, with immediate resistance at the recent high of $46.75; a sustained break above $46.75 would signal a resumption of the bull trend, while a breakdown below key moving averages could see a test of lower support levels. The stock's beta of 1.469 confirms it is approximately 47% more volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is critical for risk assessment given its recent 41.88% maximum drawdown and the high-volume swings typical of speculative growth names.

Beta

1.69

1.69x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-41.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$8-$47

Price range past year

Annual Return

+169.9%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLUNR ReturnS&P 500
1m+11.5%-0.0%
3m+66.5%+8.7%
6m+161.9%+8.0%
1y+169.9%+23.1%
ytd+64.2%+8.2%

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LUNR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is highly inconsistent and currently negative; the most recent quarterly revenue was $44.8 million, representing a year-over-year decline of -18.64%, and this follows a volatile pattern from the prior quarter's $52.4 million, indicating significant lumpiness in contract timing rather than steady organic growth. The company is deeply unprofitable with a net income of -$40.0 million for the quarter and a gross margin of 30.24%, though this gross margin represents an improvement from the deeply negative -23.54% in Q2 2025, showing some operational progress amidst heavy losses. The balance sheet shows a strong current ratio of 4.96 and negative debt-to-equity of -0.50, indicating net cash position, but this is overshadowed by severe cash burn with trailing twelve-month free cash flow at -$55.95 million and an ROE of 11.13% that is likely distorted by equity issuance, highlighting a fundamental reliance on external financing to fund operations and growth.

Quarterly Revenue

$44785000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.18%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.30%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-55952000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Reportable Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is LUNR Overvalued?

Given the company's negative net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is 9.22x, while the forward-looking metric is implied by the market cap of $2.44 billion against analyst revenue estimates averaging $2.05 billion, suggesting a forward PS of approximately 1.19x, a massive gap that implies the market is pricing in explosive revenue growth expectations for the coming year. Peer comparison is challenging due to the nascent industry, but the stock's valuation is inherently speculative and not directly comparable to traditional aerospace averages; the extreme volatility and high PS multiples are hallmarks of a pre-profit, high-growth story where valuation is driven by total addressable market potential rather than current fundamentals. Historically, the stock's own PS ratio has swung wildly, from a high of 43.24x at the end of 2025 to much lower levels previously; the current 9.22x is below that recent peak but still elevated, suggesting expectations have been tempered somewhat but remain optimistic relative to its own history, leaving it vulnerable to sharp corrections if growth fails to materialize.

PE

-23.3x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -45x~4x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-26.6x

Enterprise Value Multiple