LUNR

Intuitive Machines

$19.58

-3.07%
Jul 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Intuitive Machines is a space infrastructure and services company that designs, builds, integrates, and operates space systems, offering infrastructure-as-a-service across low Earth orbit, cislunar space, and deep space. As a key player in the emerging commercial space economy, it differentiates itself through its lunar lander technology and NASA partnerships, positioning itself as a critical enabler of sustained human activity beyond Earth. The current investor narrative centers on the company's cash burn and dilutive share sales, which have sparked debate about its path to profitability, while recent contract wins and the broader space sector momentum (including SpaceX IPO sentiment) drive both optimism and volatility.

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LUNR 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $19.58
Average Target $19.58
High Target $22.516999999999996
Low Target $16.642999999999997

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Intuitive Machines's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $25.45 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$25.45

1 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

1

covering this stock

Price Range

$16 - $25

Analyst target range

Buy
0 (0%)
Hold
0 (0%)
Sell
1 (100%)

Only one analyst covers LUNR, with a consensus recommendation not calculable due to insufficient data. The average estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $1.36, with a low of $1.23 and high of $1.57. The average revenue estimate is $2.05 billion, implying a forward PS of ~1.19x. Without a price target, we cannot calculate implied upside/downside. The limited coverage (1 analyst) suggests LUNR is a small-cap with limited institutional interest, leading to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The wide range in EPS estimates ($1.23–$1.57) reflects high uncertainty about the company's path to profitability.

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LUNR Technical Analysis

The stock has experienced a volatile uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +82.8%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +19.1%. However, the current price of $19.58 sits at just 30% of its 52-week range ($7.78–$46.75), indicating a sharp pullback from the May highs near $46. This positioning near the low end of the range suggests the stock is in a correction phase, potentially offering a value entry if the long-term uptrend resumes, but also reflecting waning momentum. The 52-week low of $7.78 provides a critical support level, while the high of $46.75 represents major resistance.

Beta

1.78

1.78x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-59.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$8-$47

Price range past year

Annual Return

+82.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLUNR ReturnS&P 500
1m-50.5%+1.0%
3m-18.4%+13.0%
6m+9.5%+7.7%
1y+82.8%+19.1%
ytd+9.5%+9.2%

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LUNR Fundamental Analysis

Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) was $44.8 million, down 18.6% year-over-year from $55.0 million in Q4 2024, marking a deceleration from the prior quarter's $52.4 million. The company reported a net loss of $40.0 million in Q4 2025, compared to a net loss of $148.7 million in Q4 2024, but the loss widened sequentially from Q3 2025's net loss of $6.8 million. Gross margin improved to 30.2% in Q4 2025 from 68.1% in Q4 2024, though the prior year's margin was inflated by a one-time gain. Operating margin remained deeply negative at -73.9% in Q4 2025, reflecting high SG&A costs ($40.2 million) relative to revenue. The company is not yet profitable, with a trailing twelve-month net loss of $96.8 million, though the loss has narrowed from the prior year's $284.4 million loss. Free cash flow was negative $22.9 million in Q4 2025, and the company has a debt-to-equity ratio of -0.50, indicating negative equity (liabilities exceed assets). However, the current ratio of 4.96 suggests strong short-term liquidity, supported by $585.3 million in cash at the end of Q4 2025. ROE of 11.1% is positive due to negative equity, which is a distortion; ROA of -5.4% reflects ongoing operating losses.

Quarterly Revenue

$44785000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.18%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.30%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-55952000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Reportable Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is LUNR Overvalued?

Since net income is negative, we use the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 9.22x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $2.05 billion) is approximately 1.19x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. The gap between trailing and forward PS suggests aggressive growth expectations embedded in the current price. Compared to the Aerospace & Defense industry average PS ratio of approximately 2.5x, LUNR's trailing PS of 9.22x represents a 269% premium, reflecting its high-growth, early-stage nature. However, the forward PS of 1.19x would be a discount to the industry, indicating that if revenue estimates are met, the stock could be undervalued. Historically, LUNR's PS ratio has ranged from 1.76x (Q4 2023) to 43.24x (Q4 2025), and the current 9.22x is near the lower end of its recent range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history, but this may reflect deteriorating fundamentals.

PE

-23.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -45x~4x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-23.4x

Enterprise Value Multiple