MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
MTDR
$51.38
-4.94%
Matador Resources Company is an independent energy company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources, with a focus on shale and other unconventional plays in the United States. The company operates through two main segments: exploration and production, which generates the majority of its revenue, and a midstream segment that supports its core operations. The current investor narrative centers on its performance as a leveraged play on volatile oil and gas prices, with recent attention driven by a sharp crude oil price decline in April 2026 following geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East, testing the company's operational resilience and financial discipline in a lower commodity price environment.…
MTDR
MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY
$51.38
Related headlines
MTDR 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on MATADOR RESOURCES COMPANY's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $66.79 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$66.79
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$41 - $67
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for MTDR appears limited, with only two analysts providing estimates for future EPS and revenue, suggesting it may be a smaller or less-followed name within the energy sector, which can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery. The average revenue estimate for the upcoming period is $4.56 billion, with a range from $4.21 billion to $4.86 billion, indicating some variance in outlook. The average EPS estimate is $9.33, ranging from $8.41 to $10.14. Recent institutional ratings show a mix of sentiment: in March 2026, firms like Citigroup, TD Cowen, and BMO Capital maintained Buy or Outperform ratings, while Truist Securities downgraded from Buy to Hold and Wells Fargo maintains an Equal Weight stance. This pattern suggests cautious optimism but with notable downgrades reflecting the uncertain commodity price environment and the stock's recent pullback from its highs.
MTDR Technical Analysis
The stock is in a volatile but defined uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +23.86%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +27.04% gain, as indicated by a -3.18% relative strength. As of the latest close at $55.75, the price sits approximately 69% of its 52-week range ($37.14 to $66.84), indicating it has retreated meaningfully from its highs but remains well above its lows, suggesting a consolidation phase after a strong run. Recent momentum has turned sharply negative, with the stock down 11.41% over the past month, a significant divergence from both its 1-year trend and the broader market's +4.6% gain, signaling a potential short-term correction or profit-taking. The stock's beta of 0.80 suggests it has been less volatile than the broader market over the measured period, which is notable given the typical volatility of energy equities. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $37.14, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $66.84; a decisive break above resistance would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, whereas a break below the $52-$53 area (near the May lows) could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's maximum drawdown of -29.23% highlights the significant downside risk inherent in its price swings, which investors must consider for position sizing.
Beta
0.73
0.73x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$37-$67
Price range past year
Annual Return
-0.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MTDR Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.8% | +2.1% |
| 3m | -10.8% | +12.5% |
| 6m | +19.3% | +12.4% |
| 1y | -0.5% | +26.4% |
| ytd | +18.5% | +10.7% |
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MTDR Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been volatile, with the most recent quarterly revenue at $847.99 million, representing a year-over-year decline of 13.3% from the prior-year quarter's $978.28 million; this sequential softening from Q1 2025's $1.01 billion indicates top-line pressure, likely tied to lower realized commodity prices. The company remains solidly profitable, reporting net income of $192.55 million for Q4 2025, with a robust gross margin of 43.7% and an operating margin of 32.5%, though these margins have compressed from higher levels seen in 2024, reflecting the cyclical nature of the business. Profitability metrics are healthy, with a return on equity of 13.4% and a return on assets of 4.8%, demonstrating efficient use of capital. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63, and the company maintains a current ratio of 0.79, indicating adequate but not excessive liquidity. Critically, the company generated substantial trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $241.64 million, providing internal funding for its capital program and shareholder returns, as evidenced by its dividend yield of 3.09% and a payout ratio of 21.5%.
Quarterly Revenue
$847992000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.13%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+2.58%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$241644000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MTDR Overvalued?
Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 6.96x, while the forward P/E is slightly lower at 6.25x, indicating the market expects modest earnings growth or stabilization. This valuation is at a significant discount to the broader market, typical for the cyclical energy sector. Compared to its own historical range, the current trailing P/E of 6.96x is near the lower end of its multi-year spectrum, which has seen ratios as high as 11.29x in early 2021 and as low as 3.31x in mid-2022. This suggests the stock is not historically expensive and may be pricing in a more conservative commodity price outlook. The stock also trades at a Price-to-Sales ratio of 1.45x and an EV/EBITDA of 3.58x, which are low multiples that often attract value-oriented investors in the energy space, implying the market assigns a low growth premium.
PE
7.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 3x~11x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple

