Nike
NKE
$36.80
+0.49%
Nike, Inc. is the world's largest athletic footwear and apparel company, designing, marketing, and selling products under its iconic Nike, Jordan, NikeSkims, and Converse brands, with footwear accounting for roughly two-thirds of sales. As the dominant player in the global athletic apparel and footwear industry, Nike leverages its powerful brand equity, extensive direct-to-consumer network, and innovative product pipeline to maintain a competitive edge over rivals like Adidas and emerging challengers. Currently, the stock is under intense scrutiny as it trades near 12-year lows, grappling with declining revenue, margin pressure, and a high-profile turnaround effort under new leadership, while investors debate whether the brand's struggles are cyclical or structural. Recent headlines highlight concerns about Nike's potential removal from the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the impact of persistent tariffs, underscoring the deep uncertainty surrounding its recovery trajectory.…
NKE
Nike
$36.80
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NKE Today?
Rating: Hold. Nike is a high-quality franchise with a strong balance sheet and a 3.5% dividend yield, but the lack of revenue growth and ongoing operational challenges warrant caution. The consensus recommendation is 'Hold' with an average target price of $50.46, implying 31% upside, but the wide range of targets ($23-$94) reflects deep uncertainty about the recovery.
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NKE 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Nike's valuation is not demanding on a forward basis, and the gross margin recovery is encouraging, but the lack of revenue growth and the persistent downtrend suggest that the market is not yet convinced of a turnaround. The wide range of analyst targets ($23-$94) underscores the uncertainty. I would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth turns positive and the stock breaks above its 50-day moving average. I would downgrade to bearish if revenue declines accelerate or if the company cuts its dividend.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Nike's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $49.35 and implied upside of +34.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$49.35
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+34.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$23 - $94
Analyst target range
The analyst price targets range from a low of $23.00 to a high of $94.00, a wide spread that underscores the high uncertainty surrounding Nike's recovery. The low target of $23.00 implies a further 40% downside, likely pricing in a prolonged sales decline and margin erosion, while the high target of $94.00 suggests a scenario where Nike successfully reinvents its brand and returns to growth, potentially justifying a higher multiple. Recent institutional actions show a mix of ratings, with firms like Baird and Jefferies maintaining bullish stances (Outperform/Buy), while others like BNP Paribas remain bearish (Underperform), and several hold neutral positions, reflecting the deep disagreement about Nike's future prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: NKE Investment Factors
Nike presents a classic value trap versus turnaround debate. The bull case rests on a compelling forward valuation (16.8x PE), a strong gross margin recovery to 49.2%, and a healthy balance sheet, while the bear case is driven by persistent revenue declines, a 49% one-year stock collapse, and a 'Hold' consensus. Currently, the bearish evidence is stronger because top-line growth has not stabilized, and the stock remains in a clear downtrend with no confirmed reversal. The single most important tension is whether Nike's brand and product innovation can reignite sales growth—if revenue returns to positive territory, the stock could re-rate significantly; if not, the current valuation may still be too high.
Bullish
- Forward PE at 16.8x signals earnings recovery: Nike's forward PE of 16.76x is well below its trailing PE of 21.87x, implying the market expects roughly 30% earnings growth over the next year. If the turnaround gains traction, this valuation could prove attractive relative to historical norms.
- Analyst average target implies 31% upside: The consensus average price target of $50.46 is 31.4% above the current price of $38.40. Even the low target of $23.00 represents a 40% downside, but the average suggests many analysts see meaningful recovery potential.
- Strong gross margin at 49.2% in Q4: Q4 FY2026 gross margin expanded to 49.15%, up from 40.27% in the year-ago quarter. This improvement indicates pricing power and cost discipline, which could support earnings recovery even with flat sales.
- Solid balance sheet with manageable debt: Debt-to-equity is 0.74 and the current ratio is 1.96, indicating a healthy liquidity position. Nike's ability to fund its turnaround without financial distress reduces bankruptcy risk.
Bearish
- Revenue declining 1.1% YoY in Q4: Q4 FY2026 revenue fell 1.1% year-over-year to $10.97 billion, following a pattern of stagnation across recent quarters. The lack of top-line growth suggests the brand's struggles are not yet resolved.
- Stock down 49% over the past year: NKE has fallen 49.0% in the last 12 months and 39.3% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500 by 67.7 percentage points. This persistent downtrend reflects deep investor pessimism and erodes confidence in a quick recovery.
- Trading just 1.2% above 52-week low: At $38.40, the stock is only 1.2% above its 52-week low of $37.95 and 50.1% below its high of $76.97. The proximity to the low suggests the market is pricing in a high probability of further deterioration.
- Analyst recommendation is only 'Hold': The consensus recommendation is 'Hold' with a mean score of 2.56 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). This tepid stance indicates that analysts are not convinced the turnaround is imminent.
NKE Technical Analysis
Nike's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with the price at $38.40 as of September 4, 2026, reflecting a staggering 49.0% decline over the past year and a 39.3% drop year-to-date. The current price sits just 1.2% above its 52-week low of $37.95 and a dramatic 50.1% below its 52-week high of $76.97, indicating that the stock is trading near the bottom of its range. This positioning suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism, and while it may offer value, the persistent downtrend warns against catching a falling knife without clear reversal signals.
Beta
1.11
1.11x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-53.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$37-$77
Price range past year
Annual Return
-50.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NKE Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -9.2% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -18.1% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -31.8% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -50.5% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -41.8% | +12.1% |
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NKE Fundamental Analysis
Nike's revenue trajectory has turned negative, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ending May 31, 2026) reporting $10.97 billion, a 1.1% year-over-year decline. This follows a pattern of deceleration across recent quarters: Q1 FY2026 revenue was $11.72 billion, Q2 FY2026 was $12.43 billion, and Q3 FY2026 was $11.28 billion, showing sequential volatility but an overall stagnation compared to prior-year levels. The company's revenue segments reveal that Footwear, its largest category at $15.04 billion, and Apparel at $7.57 billion are both under pressure, with no clear growth driver emerging from the data.
Quarterly Revenue
$11.0B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
49.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NKE Overvalued?
Given Nike's positive net income, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 21.87x, while the forward PE is 16.76x, implying that the market expects earnings to grow by roughly 30% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about a potential earnings recovery, but it also means the stock is not as cheap as it appears on a trailing basis if that recovery fails to materialize.
PE
21.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 16x~50x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are substantial. Nike's revenue declined 1.1% YoY in Q4 FY2026, and the company has posted negative growth in recent quarters, indicating a lack of demand. The operating margin has compressed to 8.2% (TTM) from over 13% in fiscal 2024, reflecting higher costs and discounting. While the balance sheet is manageable with a debt-to-equity of 0.74, the free cash flow of $2.18 billion TTM is modest relative to a $58.7 billion market cap, and the payout ratio of 77.4% leaves little room for dividend increases if earnings deteriorate further. The reliance on footwear (two-thirds of sales) and the China market (5,500 stores) creates concentration risk if those segments weaken.