Northern Trust
NTRS
$187.86
+1.27%
Northern Trust Corp is a leading provider of wealth management, asset servicing, asset management, and banking solutions to corporations, institutions, affluent families, and individuals, operating primarily in the financial services industry. Founded in 1889 and headquartered in Chicago, the firm distinguishes itself as a premier global custodian and trust bank, managing $18.7 trillion in assets under custody/administration and $1.8 trillion in assets under management as of December 2025. The current investor narrative centers on the company's robust revenue growth driven by higher interest rates and market appreciation, alongside its strategic focus on expanding its asset servicing and wealth management franchises. Recent attention has been amplified by a strong stock performance, with shares up over 46% in the past year, as investors weigh the sustainability of net interest income growth against potential margin compression and competitive pressures in the asset management industry.…
NTRS
Northern Trust
$187.86
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NTRS Today?
Based on the analysis, NTRS is rated a 'Hold'. The stock is fairly valued with a consensus target price of $183.81, implying a negligible downside of -0.18%. The thesis is that while the company has strong fundamentals, the current price already reflects most of the positive news, leaving limited upside for new investors.
Sign up to view all
NTRS 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Northern Trust's strong fundamentals, including accelerating revenue and improving margins, are offset by a valuation that is already near analyst targets and a consensus 'hold' rating. The stock's relative undervaluation to its own history provides a margin of safety, but the limited upside to analyst targets suggests the market has already priced in much of the good news. To upgrade to bullish, we would need to see sustained revenue growth above 10% and a PE below 12x. To downgrade to bearish, we would need to see a decline in net interest income or a break below the 52-week low.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Northern Trust's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $184.27 and implied upside of -1.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$184.27
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-1.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$158 - $208
Analyst target range
Northern Trust is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean rating of 3.0 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $183.81, which is essentially in line with the current price of $184.14, implying a negligible downside of -0.18%. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the presence of 'hold' and 'neutral' ratings from major firms like JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo suggests a cautious stance. The target price range is $158.00 (low) to $208.00 (high), with the high target implying a 12.96% upside, while the low target implies a -14.20% downside. The wide spread of $50 between low and high targets indicates significant uncertainty about the stock's future performance, likely due to sensitivity to interest rate movements and market conditions. Recent ratings actions have been mixed: Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reiterated 'Underperform' on July 9, while B of A Securities maintained 'Buy' on July 7, and Morgan Stanley reiterated 'Underweight' on June 29, reflecting divergent views. The consensus 'hold' suggests that analysts see the stock as fairly valued, with limited upside potential at current levels, but the high target from some analysts indicates optimism about the company's ability to grow earnings through its asset servicing and wealth management businesses.
Bulls vs Bears: NTRS Investment Factors
Northern Trust presents a mixed picture: strong fundamental performance with accelerating revenue and earnings growth, but a valuation that is already near analyst targets and a consensus 'hold' rating. The bull case is supported by robust operating leverage, improving margins, and a reasonable PE relative to history, while the bear case hinges on limited upside to analyst targets, a premium to peers, and potential cash flow volatility. Currently, the bull side has slightly stronger evidence given the strong earnings momentum and undervaluation relative to its own history, but the stock's near-term upside is capped by analyst expectations. The most critical tension is whether NTRS can sustain its net interest income growth as interest rates potentially decline, which would directly impact its earnings and justify a higher multiple.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth Acceleration: Q1 2026 revenue grew 7.77% YoY to $3.786B, up from $3.608B in Q4 2025 and $3.579B in Q3 2025, showing accelerating momentum. This growth is driven by higher interest rates on client deposits and market appreciation, with Corporate and Institutional Services contributing $1.318B and Wealth Management $891M.
- Impressive Earnings Growth and Operating Leverage: Net income surged 34.1% YoY to $525.5M in Q1 2026, with EPS rising from $1.91 to $2.72. Operating margin expanded from 14.84% to 18.51% over the same period, demonstrating strong cost management and operating leverage.
- Undervalued Relative to Historical PE: Trailing PE of 15.54x sits near the lower end of its 5-year range (4.82x to 40.57x), and forward PE of 14.53x is below the 5-year average of ~15x. This suggests the market is pricing in conservative growth expectations, offering potential upside if earnings beat.
- Strong Stock Momentum and Relative Strength: Shares are up 46.53% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 by 25.07 percentage points. The stock trades at 96.1% of its 52-week range, reflecting strong investor confidence and a sustained uptrend.
Bearish
- Analyst Consensus is Hold with Limited Upside: The average analyst target price is $183.81, essentially in line with the current price of $184.14, implying a negligible downside of -0.18%. The consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a mean rating of 3.0, indicating analysts see the stock as fairly valued.
- Valuation Premium to Industry Peers: NTRS trades at a PE of 15.54x, a 29.5% premium to the asset management sector average of ~12x. While justified by higher margins, this premium could compress if growth slows or market sentiment shifts.
- Volatile Cash Flows and Negative Operating Cash Flow: Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$320M, swinging from $2.75B in Q1 2025, indicating significant working capital volatility. This could raise concerns about earnings quality and the sustainability of free cash flow.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: Debt-to-equity is 1.27, which is typical for banks but still represents leverage risk. In a rising rate environment, interest expenses could pressure net interest margins, as seen with interest expense of $1.58B in Q1 2026.
NTRS Technical Analysis
Northern Trust's stock is in a clear sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +46.53% and a 6-month change of +21.03%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 21.46% and 11.29% gains over the same periods. The current price of $184.14 sits at 96.1% of its 52-week range (low $121.12, high $191.60), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, which typically reflects strong momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's relative strength over 1 year is +25.07 percentage points versus the S&P 500, underscoring its leadership within the financial sector.
Beta
1.26
1.26x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$121-$192
Price range past year
Annual Return
+49.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NTRS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.3% | +2.4% |
| 3m | +15.7% | +4.7% |
| 6m | +28.2% | +11.7% |
| 1y | +49.5% | +21.3% |
| ytd | +34.9% | +13.4% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
NTRS Fundamental Analysis
Northern Trust's revenue trajectory is accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $3.786 billion, up 7.77% year-over-year, and sequential growth from $3.608 billion in Q4 2025 and $3.579 billion in Q3 2025. The company's net income of $525.5 million in Q1 2026 represents a 34.1% increase from $392 million in Q1 2025, with EPS rising from $1.91 to $2.72, reflecting strong operating leverage. Revenue segments show Corporate and Institutional Services contributing $1.318 billion and Wealth Management $891 million, with the former likely benefiting from higher interest rates on client deposits and the latter from market appreciation. Profitability metrics are robust, with gross margin at 58.34% in Q1 2026, up from 55.20% in Q1 2025, and operating margin expanding to 18.51% from 14.84% over the same period, indicating efficient cost management. The net margin improved to 13.88% from 11.16% year-over-year, and the company's ROE stands at 13.40%, reflecting strong shareholder returns. Northern Trust maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.27, which is typical for a financial institution, and a current ratio of 0.41, though this is common for banks due to their business model. Free cash flow TTM is $1.629 billion, but Q1 2026 operating cash flow was negative at -$320 million due to working capital swings, while the company generated $2.75 billion in Q1 2025, indicating volatility in cash flows. The company's dividend yield of 2.47% and payout ratio of 36.47% suggest a sustainable dividend, and with a beta of 1.26, the stock carries moderate volatility relative to the market.
Quarterly Revenue
$3.8B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
58.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is NTRS Overvalued?
Given Northern Trust's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 15.54x, while the forward PE is 14.53x, implying the market expects earnings growth of about 6.5% over the next year. The stock's PS ratio of 1.79x is below the historical average, and the PB ratio of 1.98x is in line with recent levels. The PEG ratio is negative at -1.51, which is not meaningful due to negative earnings growth expectations, but the forward PE suggests a reasonable valuation for a financial institution with stable earnings. Compared to the industry, Northern Trust's PE of 15.54x is at a premium to the broader asset management sector average of approximately 12x, representing a 29.5% premium, which may be justified by its higher net margin of 12.15% versus the industry average of around 10%. The stock's EV/EBITDA is negative at -5.94, which is unusual and reflects the company's high interest expenses and depreciation, but this metric is less relevant for financial firms. Historically, Northern Trust's PE has ranged from 4.82x (Q2 2024) to 40.57x (Q4 2023), with the current 15.54x sitting near the lower end of its 5-year band, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its own history. The forward PE of 14.53x further supports this, as it is below the 5-year average of approximately 15x, indicating that the market is pricing in conservative growth expectations.
PE
15.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 10x~17x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-5.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.27, which is typical for banks but exposes the company to interest rate fluctuations. Interest expense of $1.58B in Q1 2026 could pressure net interest margins if rates rise further. Additionally, operating cash flow swung to -$320M in Q1 2026 from $2.75B a year ago, indicating volatility that could affect dividend sustainability, though the payout ratio of 36.47% provides a buffer. Revenue concentration in asset servicing and wealth management makes earnings sensitive to market conditions, as seen in the 34.1% net income jump driven by market appreciation.