SYY

Sysco

$79.19

-0.56%
Jun 12, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Sysco Corporation is the largest foodservice distributor in the United States, operating within the Consumer Defensive sector's Food Distribution industry. It serves a vast network of customers, including restaurants, healthcare facilities, educational institutions, and travel & leisure venues, by distributing roughly 500,000 food and non-food products. The company's dominant market position, with an 18% share of the highly fragmented $377 billion domestic market, is built on its extensive scale and logistics network. The current investor narrative revolves around its strategic acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot, aimed at expanding into the higher-margin and resilient cash-and-carry channel, and the market's assessment of whether this deal can successfully drive margin expansion and earnings growth amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop for the foodservice industry.

People also watch

US Foods

US Foods

USFD

Analysis
Performance Food Group

Performance Food Group

PFGC

Analysis
The Chef's Warehouse Inc

The Chef's Warehouse Inc

CHEF

Analysis
Walmart Inc. Common Stock

Walmart Inc. Common Stock

WMT

Analysis
Costco

Costco

COST

Analysis

SYY 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $79.19
Average Target $79.19
High Target $91.06849999999999
Low Target $67.3115

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Sysco's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $102.95 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$102.95

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$63 - $103

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Sysco is covered by a limited set of 7 analysts, indicating it is a well-known but not hyper-followed large-cap stock. The institutional ratings data shows a unanimously bullish sentiment among firms that have recently published research, with actions in January and February 2026 consisting of 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings from major banks like JP Morgan, Barclays, UBS, and Wells Fargo, alongside a single 'Neutral' from Citigroup. The consensus, based on earnings estimates, points to an average EPS forecast of $6.04 for the coming period, with a tight range from $5.94 to $6.11, suggesting strong analyst agreement on the near-term profit trajectory. The average revenue estimate is $99.11 billion. While a specific consensus price target is not provided in the data, the bullish rating actions and tight EPS estimate range imply a positive outlook. The lack of a wide public target price spread from the data set suggests analyst conviction in the fundamental story, likely centered on the successful integration of the Jetro acquisition and its projected margin benefits. The limited number of analysts, compared to mega-cap tech names, is typical for a stable, defensive industry leader and does not necessarily imply neglect but rather reflects its predictable business model.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

Bulls vs Bears: SYY Investment Factors

The evidence for Sysco presents a balanced but tense picture, with the bear side currently holding a slight edge due to severe market underperformance and concerning margin trends. The bull case rests on strong cash generation, a strategic acquisition, and analyst optimism for earnings growth. The bear case is driven by poor relative performance, high leverage, and thin, potentially deteriorating margins. The single most important tension in the investment debate is the execution risk of the Jetro acquisition. If Jetro successfully drives the expected margin expansion and justifies the forward earnings growth priced into the 15x forward P/E, the bull thesis will be validated. If integration falters or fails to offset broader cost pressures, the high leverage and weak price action will likely dominate, leading to further multiple compression.

Bullish

  • Strong Free Cash Flow & Dividend: Sysco generates substantial free cash flow of $1.93 billion TTM, providing a solid foundation for shareholder returns and debt service. The company's dividend, with a sustainable 54.7% payout ratio and a 2.73% yield, offers an attractive income component for defensive investors.
  • Analyst Conviction on Growth: Analyst sentiment is unanimously bullish, with recent 'Buy' or 'Overweight' ratings from major firms. The forward P/E of 15.01x implies a 25% expected earnings growth to an average EPS of $6.04, signaling strong institutional confidence in the company's near-term profit trajectory.
  • Strategic High-Margin Acquisition: The acquisition of Jetro Restaurant Depot is a key strategic move to expand into the higher-margin, resilient cash-and-carry channel. This deal is viewed by the market as promising and is a primary catalyst for expected margin expansion and earnings growth.
  • Defensive Business & Low Beta: As the dominant foodservice distributor with an 18% market share, Sysco operates a defensive, essential business. Its low beta of 0.66 indicates it is 34% less volatile than the market, making it a potential haven during broader market downturns.

Bearish

  • Severe Underperformance vs. Market: SYY has significantly underperformed the S&P 500, with a 1-year return of 1.99% versus the market's 27.04%, resulting in a -25.05% relative strength. This stark divergence indicates a lack of investor enthusiasm and persistent selling pressure, particularly over the last three months (-12.77%).
  • High Financial Leverage: The company carries a very high debt-to-equity ratio of 7.92, indicating a capital structure heavily reliant on debt. While free cash flow covers obligations, this leverage amplifies risks during periods of rising interest rates or economic stress.
  • Margin Pressure & Sluggish Growth: Sequential operating margin declined from 3.78% in Q1 to 3.33% in Q2, indicating cost pressures. Revenue growth is anemic at 3.03% YoY, reflecting the challenges of a mature market and questioning the company's ability to accelerate top-line expansion.
  • Elevated Valuation on Book Value: The Price-to-Book ratio of 20.01 is extremely high, signaling the stock is expensive relative to its equity base. This is a function of high leverage and significant intangible assets, making the valuation sensitive to any asset impairment or earnings disappointment.

SYY Technical Analysis

The prevailing price trend for Sysco has been a volatile consolidation within a wide range, ending a period of significant weakness. Over the past year, the stock has gained a modest 1.99%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which is up 27.04%. As of the latest close of $74.35, the stock is trading approximately 28% above its 52-week low of $68.19 but 19% below its 52-week high of $91.85, positioning it in the middle of its annual range and suggesting a lack of clear directional momentum after a sharp correction from the highs. Recent momentum shows a stark divergence from the longer-term underperformance. The stock is down 12.77% over the past three months, indicating significant selling pressure, but has managed a slight recovery of 2.07% over the past month. This 1-month positive change, while modest, suggests a potential stabilization or short-term mean reversion attempt after the steep Q1 2026 decline, though it remains deeply negative on a relative strength basis, with a 3-month relative strength of -25.37 against the market. Key technical support is firmly established at the 52-week low of $68.19, while resistance sits at the yearly high of $91.85. A decisive break above the $92 level would signal a resumption of the prior uptrend, whereas a breakdown below $68 would indicate a new phase of bearish momentum. The stock's beta of 0.66 indicates it is approximately 34% less volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a defensive, large-cap distributor and implies smaller price swings relative to SPY, a factor for risk-conscious portfolios.

Beta

0.66

0.66x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-24.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$68-$92

Price range past year

Annual Return

+5.0%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSYY ReturnS&P 500
1m+8.2%-0.1%
3m-7.4%+12.0%
6m+6.5%+8.8%
1y+5.0%+22.9%
ytd+9.0%+8.8%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

SYY Fundamental Analysis

Sysco's revenue trajectory shows stable, low-single-digit growth, reflecting its mature market position. The most recent quarterly revenue (Q2 fiscal 2026) was $20.76 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 3.03%. This follows a sequential decline from the prior quarter's $21.15 billion, indicating potential seasonal or demand fluctuations. The revenue segment data reveals a diversified product mix, with Canned and Dry Products ($3.67B), Fresh and Frozen Meats ($4.28B), and Frozen Fruits, Vegetables, Bakery ($3.16B) as the largest contributors, suggesting growth is broad-based rather than driven by a single category. The company is consistently profitable, with a net income of $389 million in the latest quarter. However, profitability metrics show some pressure; the quarterly gross margin was 18.26%, which is consistent with the trailing twelve-month gross margin of 18.40%. The net margin for the quarter was a thin 1.87%, though the TTM net margin is slightly higher at 2.25%. Comparing sequential quarters, the operating margin declined from 3.78% in Q1 to 3.33% in Q2, indicating potential cost inflation or competitive pressures impacting bottom-line efficiency. The balance sheet and cash flow picture is mixed, characterized by high leverage but solid cash generation. The debt-to-equity ratio is elevated at 7.92, reflecting a capital structure heavily reliant on debt. Despite this, the company generates substantial free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow of $1.93 billion, providing ample coverage for its dividend (payout ratio of 54.7%) and debt service. The current ratio of 1.21 indicates adequate short-term liquidity. Return on equity is exceptionally high at 99.9%, but this is largely a function of the high financial leverage rather than exceptional operational profitability, as evidenced by a more modest return on assets of 8.29%.

Quarterly Revenue

$20.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.18%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Beverage Products1
Canned And Dry Products1
Dairy Products1
Equipment And Smallwares
Fresh And Frozen Meats1
Fresh Produce1
Frozen Fruits, Vegetables, Bakery And Other1
Other Products
Paper And Disposables1
Poultry1
Seafood1

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is SYY Overvalued?

Given Sysco's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 20.03x and a forward P/E of 15.01x. The significant discount of the forward multiple implies the market expects a substantial 25% increase in earnings over the next year, likely pricing in benefits from the Jetro acquisition and operational improvements. Compared to sector averages, Sysco's valuation presents a mixed picture. Its Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.45 is low, typically indicating value, but its Price-to-Book ratio of 20.01 is extremely high, a direct result of its leveraged balance sheet and significant intangible assets like goodwill from acquisitions. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.1x is a more relevant metric for a capital-intensive distributor, and it sits at a level that requires assessing the quality of its EBITDA against peers. The stock's current trailing P/E of 20.03x is below the higher end of its own historical range seen in recent years (e.g., 22.87x in Q2 2025, 23.70x in Q3 2024), but above the lows seen during periods of peak profitability (e.g., 14.51x in Q4 2024). This positioning in the middle-to-lower end of its historical P/E band suggests the market is not pricing in overly optimistic growth, potentially leaving room for multiple expansion if the company executes on its margin and acquisition synergy targets.

PE

20.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 13x~116x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: Sysco's primary financial risk stems from its highly leveraged balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 7.92. While strong TTM free cash flow of $1.93 billion provides coverage, this leverage magnifies the impact of interest rate fluctuations and earnings volatility. Operationally, the company faces margin pressure, as evidenced by the sequential decline in operating margin from 3.78% to 3.33%. Furthermore, revenue growth is modest at 3.03% YoY, indicating a mature business that may struggle to accelerate top-line expansion without successful M&A, introducing execution risk.

Market & Competitive Risks: The stock trades at a forward P/E of 15.01x, which, while a discount to its trailing multiple, still requires flawless execution of the Jetro deal to justify the implied 25% earnings growth. A failure to meet these expectations could lead to significant valuation compression. The stock's beta of 0.66 offers defensive characteristics but has not protected it from severe relative underperformance (-25% vs. SPY over 1 year), suggesting sector or company-specific headwinds are outweighing its defensive nature. The highly fragmented $377 billion foodservice market leaves Sysco exposed to intense competition and pricing pressure from smaller, more agile distributors.

Worst-Case Scenario: The worst-case scenario involves a recessionary environment that pressures restaurant spending, combined with a botched integration of the Jetro acquisition that fails to deliver promised synergies. This could trigger a simultaneous decline in revenue growth, compression of already-thin margins, and a credit rating downgrade due to its high leverage. In this adverse scenario, the stock could realistically re-test its 52-week low of $68.19, representing a downside of approximately -8.3% from the current price of $74.35. A break below this support could lead to a further decline towards the $60-$65 range, implying a potential total loss of 15-20% from current levels.