WMT

Walmart Inc. Common Stock

$109.33

-0.96%
Jul 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally and generating more than $713 billion in fiscal 2026 sales through its Walmart US, Walmart International, and Sam's Club segments. As a dominant force in the discount store industry, Walmart leverages its massive scale and supply chain efficiency to offer everyday low prices, serving 270 million customers weekly. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain growth amid a challenging consumer environment, with recent news highlighting a 20% pullback from highs due to concerns over slowing same-store sales and high valuation leaving little room for error. Additionally, Walmart's e-commerce expansion and resilience in grocery (nearly 60% of US revenue) are key focal points as the market debates its near-term guidance.

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WMT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $109.33
Average Target $109.33
High Target $125.73
Low Target $92.93

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Walmart Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $138.27 and implied upside of +26.5% versus the current price.

Average Target

$138.27

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+26.5%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$81 - $155

Analyst target range

Walmart is covered by 41 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean recommendation 1.53 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $138.59, implying approximately 21.3% upside from the current price of $114.24. The distribution leans heavily bullish, with recent ratings from firms like BTIG, UBS, and RBC Capital maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings. The target price range spans from a low of $81.00 to a high of $155.00. The high target of $155 assumes continued revenue growth, margin expansion from e-commerce efficiencies, and successful international expansion, potentially justifying a higher multiple. The low target of $81.00 reflects risks such as slowing same-store sales, increased competition from discounters like Dollar Tree and Target, and potential margin compression from inflation. The wide spread of $74 between low and high indicates significant uncertainty among analysts, though the consensus remains bullish. Recent institutional ratings show no downgrades, with firms like BTIG and UBS reiterating Buy ratings, suggesting confidence in Walmart's long-term prospects despite near-term headwinds.

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WMT Technical Analysis

Walmart's stock is in a corrective phase within a longer-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +20.1% but a significant pullback from its 52-week high of $135.16. Currently trading at $114.24, the stock sits at 84.5% of its 52-week range, indicating it has retreated from the highs but remains above the 52-week low of $94.43. This positioning suggests the stock is in a consolidation zone, potentially offering a value entry if the long-term trend resumes, but also carrying risk of further downside if selling pressure persists. The 1-month price change of -3.3% and 3-month change of -10.4% show accelerating short-term weakness, diverging sharply from the 1-year gain. This divergence signals a potential trend reversal or a temporary pullback, as the stock has lost momentum relative to the broader market (SPY 3-month change of +4.7%). The relative strength indicators (RSI not provided) would likely be in neutral-to-bearish territory, confirming the near-term bearish bias. The 52-week low of $94.43 serves as key support, while the 52-week high of $135.16 is the primary resistance. A break below $94.43 would signal a major trend reversal, while a move above $135.16 would confirm renewed bullish momentum. With a beta of 0.60, Walmart is significantly less volatile than the market, meaning its pullbacks are typically shallower and its recoveries more gradual, which is favorable for risk-averse investors.

Beta

0.60

0.60x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-18.9%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$95-$135

Price range past year

Annual Return

+14.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodWMT ReturnS&P 500
1m-6.7%+0.4%
3m-17.2%+5.5%
6m-7.1%+8.4%
1y+14.1%+18.9%
ytd-3.0%+9.6%

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WMT Fundamental Analysis

Walmart's revenue trajectory remains solidly growing, with Q1 2027 (ending April 30, 2026) revenue of $177.8 billion, up 7.3% year-over-year from $165.6 billion in the prior-year quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows consistent growth, with revenue accelerating from $165.6B (Q1 2026) to $177.4B (Q2 2026) and $179.5B (Q3 2026), though Q4 2026 saw a seasonal jump to $190.7B. The Walmart US segment, contributing 68% of sales, is the primary growth driver, with grocery (nearly 60% of US revenue) providing a defensive anchor. This steady growth supports the investment case for Walmart as a resilient consumer staple, though deceleration from the 7.3% YoY growth in Q1 2027 compared to the prior year's 8.5% (Q1 2026) warrants monitoring. Walmart is highly profitable, with Q1 2027 net income of $5.65 billion and a net margin of 3.2%. Gross margin has been stable around 25% (25.1% in Q1 2027), while operating margin came in at 4.2%, slightly below the 4.3% in Q1 2026. Over the past four quarters, net margins have ranged from 2.2% (Q4 2026) to 3.2% (Q1 2027), indicating some variability but overall stability. Compared to the discount store industry average gross margin of ~25-30%, Walmart's margins are typical, reflecting its low-price model. The company maintains a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 and a current ratio of 0.79, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) stands at $12.55 billion, though Q1 2027 saw negative FCF of -$1.95 billion due to heavy capital expenditures of $6.68 billion. ROE is strong at 22.0%, reflecting efficient use of equity. Walmart generates sufficient cash from operations ($4.74B in Q1 2027) to fund its capex and dividends, though the negative FCF quarter highlights the capital-intensive nature of its store and e-commerce investments.

Quarterly Revenue

$177.8B

2026-04

Revenue YoY Growth

+7.3%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

25.1%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$12.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Sams Club
Walmart International
Walmart U S

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Valuation Analysis: Is WMT Overvalued?

Since Walmart has positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 43.5x, while the forward P/E is 34.8x, indicating the market expects earnings growth to moderate the multiple. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests that analysts anticipate earnings growth of about 25% over the next year, which is optimistic given the current growth trajectory. Compared to the discount store industry average P/E of approximately 22x (based on sector data), Walmart's trailing P/E of 43.5x represents a 98% premium. This premium is partially justified by Walmart's superior scale, brand strength, and consistent growth, but it also reflects the market's willingness to pay for defensive quality in an uncertain economy. The PEG ratio of 3.3x further indicates that the stock is priced for above-average growth, which may be difficult to sustain. Historically, Walmart's trailing P/E has ranged from 15x to 56x over the past five years. The current 43.5x is near the high end of that range, suggesting the stock is expensive relative to its own history. This elevated multiple implies that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations for future growth and margin expansion, leaving little room for disappointment. If growth falters, the stock could face multiple compression.

PE

43.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 14x~60x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

21.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple