Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
$103.70
-0.13%
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally, including Walmart US, Walmart International, and Sam's Club segments, and serving 270 million customers weekly. As a dominant player in the discount store industry, Walmart leverages its massive scale and supply chain efficiency to offer everyday low prices, while expanding its e-commerce presence. The current investor narrative centers on Walmart's ability to sustain growth amid a challenging consumer environment, with attention on tariff-related refunds, its foray into renewable energy power purchase agreements, and its ongoing digital transformation. Recent news highlights potential cash inflows from tariff refunds and strategic partnerships, which could provide tailwinds, while concerns about inflation and competitive pressures persist.…
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
$103.70
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WMT Today?
Based on the analysis, Walmart is rated a 'Hold' with a positive tilt. The consensus analyst rating is 'Buy' with an average target price of $137.98, implying 19.7% upside. However, the elevated valuation and recent price decline warrant caution. The thesis is that Walmart's defensive growth and improving margins justify a premium, but the current price already reflects much of the optimism.
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WMT 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balance between Walmart's solid fundamentals and its rich valuation. The stock offers defensive qualities and consistent growth, but the high P/E limits upside potential. A re-rating could occur if growth accelerates or margins expand further, while a downgrade would be warranted if growth decelerates or margins compress. The key monitor is whether Walmart can maintain its growth trajectory to justify its premium.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Walmart Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $137.95 and implied upside of +33.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$137.95
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+33.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $155
Analyst target range
Walmart is covered by 40 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean rating of 1.58 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $137.98, implying a 19.7% upside from the current price of $115.27. The target range is wide, from a low of $81.00 to a high of $155.00, indicating significant uncertainty among analysts. The high target of $155 assumes continued strong growth and margin expansion, while the low target of $81 suggests concerns about competitive pressures and margin compression. Recent ratings from firms like BTIG, UBS, and RBC Capital have been positive, with no downgrades, indicating a bullish sentiment. The wide spread between the low and high targets reflects the divergent views on Walmart's ability to sustain its growth trajectory in a challenging retail environment.
Bulls vs Bears: WMT Investment Factors
Walmart presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth and improving profitability are offset by a rich valuation and recent price weakness. The bull case rests on Walmart's defensive growth profile and potential tariff refunds, while the bear case centers on valuation risk and competitive pressures. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger given the stock's underperformance and high P/E, but the analyst consensus and fundamental momentum provide a solid floor. The key tension is whether Walmart can sustain its growth and margin expansion to justify its premium valuation, or if the market will re-rate the stock lower if growth decelerates.
Bullish
- Strong Revenue Growth: Walmart's Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 7.3% YoY to $177.75 billion, driven by strength across all segments. This robust top-line growth outpaces the broader retail sector and demonstrates Walmart's ability to gain market share even in a challenging consumer environment.
- Improving Profitability: Net income rose to $5.65 billion in Q1 FY2027, with net margin expanding to 3.18% from 2.71% a year ago. Gross margin also improved to 25.14% from 24.9%, reflecting better merchandise mix and supply chain efficiencies.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With 40 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is 'Buy' with a mean rating of 1.58 (1=Strong Buy). The average target price of $137.98 implies a 19.7% upside from the current price of $115.27, indicating broad optimism.
- Defensive Characteristics: Walmart's beta of 0.605 indicates it is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive anchor in portfolios. Its essential consumer products and everyday low price strategy provide resilience during economic downturns.
Bearish
- Elevated Valuation: Walmart trades at a trailing P/E of 43.48x, a 98% premium to the industry average of 22x. The PEG ratio of 3.29x suggests the market is pricing in aggressive growth that may not materialize, leaving limited margin of safety.
- Recent Price Decline: The stock has fallen 13.9% over the past six months and 12.3% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 significantly. This downtrend reflects waning investor confidence and potential momentum headwinds.
- Margin Pressure Risks: Despite recent improvements, operating margin remains thin at 4.22%, and any increase in costs (e.g., tariffs, labor) could compress margins. The company's low-margin retail model leaves little room for error.
- Competitive Threats: Walmart faces intense competition from Amazon, Target, and discount retailers like Dollar Tree. Target's recent 5.6% comp growth and margin recovery highlight the competitive pressure Walmart faces in its core markets.
WMT Technical Analysis
Walmart's stock is currently in a downtrend, with the price at $115.27, down 13.9% over the past six months and 12.3% over the past three months, though it remains 14.3% higher over the past year. The stock is trading at 68% of its 52-week range (low: $95.42, high: $135.16), indicating it is closer to the lower end, which could suggest a value opportunity or a falling knife. The 1-year price change of +14.3% is positive, but the recent decline from the 52-week high of $135.16 to $115.27 represents a 14.7% pullback, signaling a loss of momentum. The stock's beta of 0.605 indicates it is less volatile than the market, which may appeal to risk-averse investors but also means it may lag in strong market rallies.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-22.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$95-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+5.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WMT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -5.1% | +2.5% |
| 3m | -13.8% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -15.7% | +11.1% |
| 1y | +5.9% | +20.5% |
| ytd | -8.0% | +12.3% |
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WMT Fundamental Analysis
Walmart's revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) reporting revenue of $177.751 billion, a 7.3% year-over-year increase. This growth is driven by strong performance across segments, with Walmart US contributing $117.169 billion, Walmart International $35.11 billion, and Sam's Club $23.405 billion. The company's gross margin improved to 25.14% in Q1 FY2027, up from 24.9% in the prior year quarter, reflecting better merchandise mix and supply chain efficiencies. Net income for the quarter was $5.65 billion, with a net margin of 3.18%, up from 2.71% in the year-ago quarter, indicating improving profitability. Operating income rose to $7.493 billion, with an operating margin of 4.22%, up from 4.31% in Q1 FY2026, showing stable operational efficiency.
Quarterly Revenue
$177.8B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WMT Overvalued?
Given Walmart's positive net income, the trailing P/E ratio of 43.48x is the primary valuation metric, while the forward P/E of 35.13x suggests the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E implies an expected earnings increase of about 19% over the next year, which is optimistic given the PEG ratio of 3.29x. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (from valuation data), Walmart trades at a 98% premium, reflecting its status as a defensive growth stock with strong market position. Historically, Walmart's P/E has ranged from 20x to 56x over the past two years, with the current 43.48x near the higher end, indicating the market is pricing in robust future growth. The P/S ratio of 1.33x is below the historical average of 3.5x, suggesting the stock is not overvalued on a sales basis, but the high P/E and PEG warrant caution.
PE
43.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include Walmart's elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, which, while manageable, increases interest expense (Q1 interest expense was $699 million). The company's current ratio of 0.79 indicates potential liquidity concerns, though its strong free cash flow of $12.55 billion TTM provides a cushion. Additionally, the high P/E of 43.48x leaves little room for earnings misses, and any margin compression could disproportionately impact the stock price.
FAQ
Key risks include: 1) Valuation risk - the high P/E could compress if growth disappoints, leading to a significant price drop. 2) Competitive risk - Amazon, Target, and discount retailers are intensifying competition, pressuring margins. 3) Macro risk - inflation and tariffs could increase costs, squeezing profitability. 4) Company-specific risk - reliance on grocery sales (60% of US revenue) exposes Walmart to food price volatility. The most severe risk is a combination of margin compression and multiple contraction, which could drive the stock down 20-30% from current levels.
The 12-month forecast is moderately positive. The base case (50% probability) sees the stock reaching $125-140, aligning with the analyst average target of $137.98. The bull case (25% probability) targets $135-155, driven by strong growth and tariff refunds. The bear case (25% probability) could see the stock fall to $95-110 if margins compress. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming Walmart maintains its growth trajectory and margins. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings for signs of margin pressure or acceleration.
Walmart is overvalued relative to its industry peers, trading at a trailing P/E of 43.48x versus the industry average of 22x, a 98% premium. The forward P/E of 35.13x still implies high growth expectations. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock is at 1.33x, below its historical average of 3.5x, suggesting it is not overvalued on sales. However, the high P/E and PEG ratio of 3.29x indicate the market is pricing in robust future earnings growth. The valuation implies investors expect continued margin expansion and revenue growth, which may be optimistic given competitive pressures.
Walmart is a good buy for investors seeking a defensive, long-term holding with steady growth. The analyst consensus is 'Buy' with an average target price of $137.98, implying 19.7% upside. However, the stock's high P/E of 43.48x means it is not cheap, and the recent price decline suggests momentum is negative. For risk-averse investors, the low beta and essential retail business provide a safety net, but for growth-oriented investors, the upside may be limited. A better entry point could emerge if the stock pulls back further toward its 52-week low of $95.42.
Walmart is better suited for long-term investment due to its defensive nature, consistent growth, and low beta (0.605). The stock's recent volatility (down 13.9% over 6 months) makes it less attractive for short-term trading, as momentum is negative. Long-term investors can benefit from Walmart's steady revenue growth, improving margins, and modest dividend yield of 0.79%. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out market cycles and allow the company's growth initiatives to materialize. Short-term traders may find better opportunities elsewhere, but long-term investors can accumulate on dips.