Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
$107.15
+1.34%
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally, including Walmart US, Walmart International, and Sam's Club segments, with fiscal 2026 sales exceeding $713 billion. As a dominant player in the discount store industry, Walmart serves 270 million customers weekly and has been aggressively expanding its e-commerce and advertising businesses to compete with Amazon. The current investor narrative centers on a post-earnings selloff (down 9% after Q2 FY2027 results) driven by softer U.S. comparable sales, which has raised concerns about consumer spending slowdowns, while the company's high-margin growth areas like marketplace, advertising, and membership offer long-term promise. Additionally, Walmart's recent exit from the $1 trillion market cap club has sparked debate about whether this is a temporary setback or a more permanent valuation reset.…
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
$107.15
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Investment Opinion: Should I buy WMT Today?
Rating: Hold. Walmart is a high-quality business with a dominant market position, but the current valuation does not offer a sufficient margin of safety. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $127.73, implying 19.2% upside, yet the stock's recent downtrend and elevated PE suggest that much of the good news is already priced in. For long-term investors, the stock could be a solid holding, but new buyers may want to wait for a better entry point.
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WMT 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. Walmart's strong revenue growth and defensive characteristics are offset by a rich valuation and recent negative momentum. The stock's premium PE suggests the market expects continued earnings growth, but the recent earnings miss raises questions about near-term consumer strength. If Walmart can deliver a strong holiday quarter and re-accelerate comp sales, the stock could move toward the bull case. Conversely, further signs of consumer weakness could trigger a re-rating lower. The stance would upgrade to bullish if the stock breaks above $115 with volume, or downgrade to bearish if it falls below $100.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Walmart Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $127.42 and implied upside of +18.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$127.42
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+18.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $155
Analyst target range
Walmart is covered by 40 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.53 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $127.73, implying a 19.2% upside from the current price of $107.14. The distribution shows a bullish tilt, with no Sell ratings and only a few Hold ratings, as recent actions from firms like BTIG, UBS, and RBC Capital have reaffirmed Buy or Outperform ratings. The target price range spans from a low of $81.00 to a high of $155.00, with the high target suggesting potential for a 44.7% rally, likely assuming a recovery in consumer spending and continued growth in high-margin businesses like advertising and marketplace. The low target of $81.00 implies a 24.4% downside, reflecting risks of prolonged consumer weakness or margin compression. The wide spread between low and high targets (74 points) indicates significant uncertainty about Walmart's near-term growth trajectory, though the recent analyst actions have been predominantly positive, with no downgrades in the last three months, signaling confidence in the company's long-term strategy despite short-term headwinds.
Bulls vs Bears: WMT Investment Factors
Walmart presents a classic tension between a high-quality, defensive business with accelerating revenue and a valuation that has become disconnected from near-term fundamentals. The bull case rests on the company's ability to grow high-margin businesses like advertising and marketplace, which could justify the premium multiple over time. However, the bear case is strengthened by the recent earnings miss, which revealed softening consumer spending, and the stock's significant underperformance relative to the market. Currently, the bearish evidence is more immediate, as the stock is in a downtrend and valuation remains elevated despite the pullback. The single most important factor to watch is whether Walmart can re-accelerate US comparable sales growth, as this would validate the premium valuation and likely drive the stock back toward analyst targets.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating to 7.3%: Q1 FY2027 revenue reached $177.75B, up 7.33% YoY, accelerating from 5.6% in Q4 FY2026. This marks the third consecutive quarter of growth above 5%, driven by grocery market share gains and e-commerce expansion.
- High-margin businesses scaling rapidly: Walmart's marketplace, advertising, and membership segments are growing at double-digit rates and carry significantly higher margins than retail. These businesses are expected to drive operating margin expansion from the current 4.2% toward the company's long-term target of 8%+.
- Strong analyst consensus with 19% upside: 40 analysts rate WMT a Buy with a mean score of 1.53 (1=Strong Buy). The average price target of $127.73 implies 19.2% upside from the current $107.14, and no Sell ratings exist, indicating broad Street confidence.
- Defensive business model with low beta: With a beta of 0.595, Walmart offers stability during economic downturns. Its grocery-heavy mix (60% of US revenue) provides essential spending resilience, making it a defensive anchor in consumer portfolios.
Bearish
- Post-earnings selloff signals consumer weakness: After Q2 FY2027 results on Aug 20, 2026, the stock dropped 9% as US comparable sales missed expectations. This suggests softening discretionary spending and raises concerns about the sustainability of Walmart's growth premium.
- Valuation stretched at 43x trailing PE: WMT trades at 43.48x trailing earnings and 33.16x forward earnings, a 98% premium to the industry average PE of 22x. The PEG ratio of 3.29x indicates the market is paying a rich price for growth that may decelerate.
- Stock in clear downtrend, down 20.7% from high: From the 52-week high of $135.16, WMT has fallen to $107.14, a 20.7% decline. The stock sits at only 28.6% of its 52-week range, below key moving averages, reflecting deteriorating investor sentiment.
- Relative underperformance vs. S&P 500: Over the past year, WMT gained 6.15% while the S&P 500 rose 18.65%, a relative underperformance of 12.5 percentage points. In the last six months, WMT fell 13.5% while the S&P gained 14.6%, a 28-point gap.
WMT Technical Analysis
Walmart's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past six months, with the price falling from a 52-week high of $135.16 to $107.14 as of September 4, 2026, representing a 20.7% decline from the high. The 1-year price change is +6.15%, but the stock has given back most of its gains, currently trading at only 28.6% of its 52-week range (calculated as (107.14-98.88)/(135.16-98.88)). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests bearish momentum and potential value opportunity, but also reflects deteriorating investor sentiment as the stock has broken below key moving averages.
Beta
0.59
0.59x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$99-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+4.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WMT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -7.6% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -11.5% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -15.3% | +15.4% |
| 1y | +4.4% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -5.0% | +12.1% |
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WMT Fundamental Analysis
Walmart's revenue growth remains robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) posting revenue of $177.75 billion, up 7.33% year-over-year, accelerating from the prior quarter's 5.6% growth. The company's multi-quarter trend shows consistent growth, with Q4 FY2026 revenue of $190.66 billion (up 5.6% YoY) and Q3 FY2026 revenue of $179.50 billion (up 5.8% YoY). Revenue segments indicate Walmart US remains the primary driver, contributing $117.17 billion (66% of total), while Walmart International added $35.11 billion and Sam's Club $23.41 billion, with international growth outpacing domestic. This sustained growth, driven by grocery market share gains and e-commerce expansion, supports the investment case for Walmart as a defensive growth stock.
Quarterly Revenue
$177.8B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WMT Overvalued?
Given Walmart's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 43.48x, while the forward PE is 33.16x, indicating the market expects earnings growth of approximately 31% over the next year (implied by the difference). This gap suggests investors are pricing in continued margin expansion and EPS growth, which is supported by analyst estimates of $4.23 EPS for the current fiscal year. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (based on consumer defensive sector data), Walmart trades at a 98% premium, reflecting its status as a high-quality compounder with superior growth and profitability. However, the PEG ratio of 3.29x suggests the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate, and the current valuation is near the higher end of its historical PE range of 20x-56x over the past two years, indicating the market is pricing in optimistic expectations.
PE
43.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are moderate but notable. Walmart carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, which is manageable for a company of its scale, but interest expenses of $699 million in Q1 FY2027 weigh on net income. The company's operating margin of 4.2% is thin, leaving limited buffer against cost inflation or pricing pressure. Additionally, the current ratio of 0.79 indicates potential liquidity strain, though Walmart's massive scale and cash flow generation mitigate this concern. The payout ratio of 34.3% shows dividend sustainability, but any prolonged margin compression could threaten the company's ability to fund growth initiatives while maintaining shareholder returns.
FAQ
The key risks of holding WMT include: 1) Consumer spending slowdown, as evidenced by the recent US comp sales miss, which could pressure revenue growth. 2) Valuation risk, with the stock trading at a 98% premium to the industry average PE, leaving it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth decelerates. 3) Competitive risk from Amazon and other discount retailers, which could erode market share and margins. 4) Macro risks such as rising tariffs and inflation, which could increase costs and reduce consumer purchasing power. The most severe risk is a prolonged recession that forces Walmart to discount aggressively, squeezing its already thin 4.2% operating margin. In such a scenario, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $81, representing a 24.4% downside from current levels.
The WMT stock forecast over the next 12 months is mixed, with three possible scenarios. The bull case (25% probability) sees the stock reaching $127-$155, driven by a recovery in consumer spending and strong growth in high-margin businesses. The base case (50% probability) targets $115-$130, assuming steady but unspectacular growth. The bear case (25% probability) could see the stock fall to $81-$100 if consumer weakness persists and margins compress. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock trading around the analyst average target of $127.73, implying a 19.2% upside. However, the recent earnings miss and elevated valuation suggest that the stock may face headwinds in the near term. Investors should monitor quarterly earnings and consumer spending data for signs of improvement or deterioration.
WMT is currently overvalued relative to its historical norms and the broader market. The trailing PE of 43.48x and forward PE of 33.16x are significantly above the industry average of 22x, representing a 98% premium. The PEG ratio of 3.29x suggests that the market is paying a high price for each unit of expected growth. Compared to its own history, the stock trades near the higher end of its two-year PE range of 20x-56x. This valuation implies that investors expect Walmart to continue delivering strong earnings growth, driven by high-margin businesses like advertising and marketplace. If those expectations are met, the stock could be fairly valued, but any disappointment could lead to multiple compression. Overall, the stock is priced for perfection, leaving little room for error.
WMT is a high-quality company with a strong competitive position, but whether it is a good buy depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance. The stock offers a 19.2% upside to the average analyst target of $127.73, but it also carries a 24.4% downside to the low target of $81.00. With a forward PE of 33.16x, the stock is not cheap, and the recent earnings miss highlights risks to consumer spending. For long-term investors who believe in Walmart's e-commerce and advertising growth story, the stock could be a good buy at current levels, but for those seeking near-term gains, it may be better to wait for a clearer sign of stabilization. The stock's low beta of 0.595 makes it a defensive choice, but the premium valuation limits upside potential.
WMT is better suited for long-term investment due to its defensive characteristics and growth potential. With a beta of 0.595, the stock is less volatile than the market, making it a stable core holding. The company's consistent revenue growth, strong free cash flow of $12.55B, and dividend yield of 0.79% provide a solid foundation for long-term total returns. Short-term trading is possible, but the stock's recent downtrend and high valuation make it risky for quick gains. The company's earnings visibility is high, given its essential retail business, but the premium valuation requires a multi-year horizon to justify. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the high-margin businesses to scale and drive earnings growth. For investors seeking income and stability, WMT can serve as a long-term anchor in a diversified portfolio.