Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
$104.26
0Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally — including roughly 4,600 Walmart US locations and about 600 Sam's Club outlets — and attracting 270 million customers weekly across its Walmart US, Walmart International, and Sam's Club segments. The company is a dominant scale player in the Consumer Defensive / Discount Stores industry, leveraging its unmatched purchasing power, grocery-heavy mix (nearly 60% of US revenue), and rapidly growing e-commerce, advertising, and marketplace businesses to defend its low-price leadership against Amazon, Costco, and Target. The current investor narrative centers on Walmart's transformation from a low-margin brick-and-mortar retailer into a higher-margin omnichannel platform, with management's Q2 beat-and-raise overshadowed by concerns that operating income growth is lagging sales and that higher costs could limit near-term upside. Recent headlines highlight a sharp post-earnings selloff after US comparable sales missed expectations — a signal of slowing consumer spending — alongside debate over whether Walmart's brief exit from the $1 trillion market-cap club is temporary or permanent.…
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
$104.26
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WMT Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold. While the analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $127.43 (18% upside), the stock's premium valuation, margin pressure, and technical downtrend warrant caution. The core thesis is that Walmart's defensive qualities and steady revenue growth are offset by a stretched valuation and near-term earnings headwinds, making risk/reward balanced. Supporting evidence includes: revenue growth of 7.33% YoY, which is solid for a mature retailer; a trailing PE of 43.48x and forward PE of 33.44x, well above the sector average; a dividend yield of 0.79% with a sustainable payout ratio of 34.3%; and a low beta of 0.595 that provides downside protection. However, operating margin has been flat at ~4.2%, and free cash flow turned negative in the latest quarter. The biggest risks are margin compression, consumer spending slowdown, and valuation multiple contraction. The rating would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to the 52-week low of $98.88 (implying a more reasonable valuation) or if operating margins show sustained improvement above 4.5%. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth decelerates below 5% or if operating margins fall below 4%. Relative to its history and peers, WMT appears overvalued on earnings multiples but fairly valued on a price-to-sales basis (1.33x), suggesting a mixed valuation picture.
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WMT 12-Month Price Forecast
Walmart presents a balanced risk/reward profile. The company's scale, defensive nature, and steady revenue growth are attractive, but the premium valuation and margin pressure are concerns. The stock's recent decline may have created a buying opportunity for long-term investors, but near-term catalysts are lacking. We would upgrade to bullish if operating margins show sustained improvement or if the stock pulls back to the $100 level. We would downgrade to bearish if consumer spending deteriorates significantly or if margin compression accelerates.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Walmart Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $126.78 and implied upside of +21.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$126.78
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+21.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $155
Analyst target range
Walmart is covered by 40 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of "buy" (recommendation mean of 1.53 on a scale where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell), reflecting broadly bullish sentiment despite the stock's recent weakness. The average price target is $127.43, which implies approximately +18.0% upside from the current price of $107.98, while the consensus forward EPS estimate of $4.23 and revenue estimate of $890.45 billion suggest analysts expect continued top-line growth and modest earnings expansion. The bullish consensus stands in contrast to the stock's -12.13% six-month performance and -33.78 relative strength versus the S&P 500, indicating that analysts see the selloff as overdone relative to Walmart's fundamental outlook. The target range spans from a low of $81.00 to a high of $155.00 — a wide $74 spread that signals significant disagreement about Walmart's trajectory. The high target of $155.00 (roughly +43.5% upside) likely assumes successful margin expansion from advertising, marketplace, and e-commerce, plus a re-rating toward the upper end of historical multiples, while the low target of $81.00 (about -25.0% downside) prices in margin compression, continued consumer weakness, and competitive pressure from Amazon and Costco. Recent institutional ratings show a predominantly constructive tone, with BTIG, UBS, RBC Capital, BNP Paribas, Piper Sandler, and Wolfe Research all maintaining Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings as of May–June 2026, and Freedom Broker upgrading from Sell to Hold on 2026-05-21 — a positive signal suggesting the bear case is losing conviction. The wide target spread and the clustering of recent ratings in the Buy/Outperform camp indicate that while analysts remain confident in Walmart's long-term positioning, near-term uncertainty around consumer spending and margin flow-through is keeping the range wide and the conviction moderate rather than high.
Bulls vs Bears: WMT Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: WMT is in a clear downtrend, trading near the bottom of its 52-week range with negative relative strength and margin pressure. However, the bull case rests on Walmart's defensive characteristics, consistent revenue growth, and a strong analyst consensus that sees 18% upside. The most critical tension is whether Walmart can translate its revenue growth into operating margin expansion—if margins remain stagnant, the premium valuation is at risk; if margins improve, the stock could re-rate significantly. Given the low beta and essential retail nature, the downside appears limited, but the upside hinges on margin recovery and consumer resilience.
Bullish
- Analyst Consensus Strong Buy: 40 analysts rate WMT a 'buy' with a mean recommendation of 1.53 (1=Strong Buy), and the average price target of $127.43 implies 18.0% upside from the current $107.98. This consensus remains firmly bullish despite the stock's 12.13% six-month decline, suggesting the selloff is viewed as overdone.
- Defensive Low-Beta Profile: WMT's beta of 0.595 is roughly 40% less volatile than the S&P 500, making it a classic defensive holding. In uncertain markets, this low correlation can cushion drawdowns and provide portfolio stability, as evidenced by its 3.49% one-month gain versus SPY's 0.69%.
- Consistent Revenue Growth: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 7.33% YoY to $177.75 billion, continuing a multi-year trend of top-line expansion. The company's scale—$713 billion in fiscal 2026 sales and 270 million weekly customers—provides a durable competitive moat.
- High-Margin Business Expansion: Walmart's e-commerce, advertising, and marketplace segments are growing rapidly and carry higher margins than traditional retail. Although gross margin has been stable near 25%, these businesses offer a path to operating margin expansion over time.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation Unsustainable: WMT trades at a trailing PE of 43.48x and forward PE of 33.44x, well above the Consumer Defensive sector average of 20-25x. The PEG ratio of 3.29 signals the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate, leaving little margin of safety.
- Margin Pressure Limits Upside: Operating margin in Q1 FY2027 was 4.22%, essentially flat versus 4.31% a year ago, and net margin was just 3.18%. Despite revenue growth, operating income is lagging sales, a key concern highlighted by recent earnings reports.
- Technical Downtrend Persists: WMT is down 12.13% over six months and 4.24% YTD, with a relative strength of -33.78 versus the S&P 500 over six months. The stock sits at just 24.9% of its 52-week range, indicating strong selling pressure.
- Consumer Spending Slowdown: Recent US comparable sales missed expectations, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending. As a discretionary and staple retailer, Walmart is sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds, and a weakening consumer could pressure future growth.
WMT Technical Analysis
Walmart is in a clear medium-term downtrend despite a modest positive 1-year price change of +4.78%, with the current price of $107.98 sitting at just 24.9% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $98.88, high of $135.16). The stock has fallen 12.13% over six months and 4.24% year-to-date, a stark underperformance versus the S&P 500's +17.22% 1-year and +13.11% YTD gains, producing a deeply negative relative strength of -12.44 over one year and -33.78 over six months. This positioning near the lower end of the annual range suggests the market is pricing in deteriorating fundamentals rather than treating the pullback as a buying opportunity, though the proximity to the 52-week low of $98.88 could attract value-oriented accumulation. Recent momentum is mixed: the stock has rebounded +3.49% over the past month (outperforming SPY's +0.69% by 2.80 points of relative strength), yet it remains down 6.66% over three months versus SPY's +5.81%, a 12.47-point relative shortfall. This divergence — a positive 1-month bounce within a negative 3-month and 6-month trend — suggests a potential mean-reversion rally or dead-cat bounce rather than a confirmed trend reversal, especially given the sharp -23.52% maximum drawdown from peak levels. Key technical levels are well-defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $98.88 (roughly 8.4% below the current price), while resistance sits at the 52-week high of $135.16 (about 25.2% above current levels). A breakdown below $98.88 would likely trigger momentum-driven selling and signal a deeper bear phase, while a breakout above $135.16 would require a fundamental catalyst to reverse the current downtrend. With a beta of just 0.595, Walmart is roughly 40% less volatile than the broader market, making it a defensive holding that typically cushions drawdowns but also lags in strong bull markets — an important consideration for position sizing and portfolio risk budgeting.
Beta
0.59
0.59x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-23.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$99-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+2.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WMT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -1.7% | +0.6% |
| 3m | -6.8% | +3.3% |
| 6m | -17.1% | +17.4% |
| 1y | +2.5% | +15.0% |
| ytd | -7.5% | +12.9% |
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WMT Fundamental Analysis
Walmart's revenue trajectory remains solidly positive, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ended 2026-04-30) delivering $177.75 billion in revenue, up 7.33% year-over-year from $165.61 billion in the prior-year quarter. Sequentially, revenue has grown from $169.34 billion (Q2 FY2025) to $169.59 billion (Q3 FY2025) to $180.55 billion (Q4 FY2025) to $165.61 billion (Q1 FY2026) to $177.40 billion (Q2 FY2026) to $179.50 billion (Q3 FY2026) to $190.66 billion (Q4 FY2026) and now $177.75 billion (Q1 FY2027), demonstrating consistent top-line expansion with typical seasonal patterns. Segment data shows Walmart US contributing $117.17 billion (roughly 66% of quarterly revenue), Walmart International $35.11 billion (about 20%), and Sam's Club $23.41 billion (roughly 13%), with the core US grocery business anchoring growth while e-commerce and advertising provide incremental high-margin revenue streams. The 7.33% YoY growth rate is healthy for a mature retailer of this scale, but the market's negative reaction to the Q2 report suggests investors are demanding faster growth or better margin flow-through. Profitability remains thin but stable, with Q1 FY2027 net income of $5.65 billion on a 3.18% net margin, gross profit of $44.69 billion (25.14% gross margin), and operating income of $7.49 billion (4.22% operating margin). Gross margin has hovered in a tight 24.67%–25.16% band over the past five quarters, showing no meaningful expansion despite management's push into higher-margin businesses, while net margin has ranged from 2.22% (Q4 FY2026) to 3.98% (Q2 FY2026). The Q1 FY2027 operating margin of 4.22% is essentially flat versus the year-ago 4.31%, confirming the market's concern that operating income growth is lagging sales growth — a dynamic that limits earnings leverage and explains the stock's muted valuation support. On the balance sheet, Walmart carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 and a current ratio of 0.79, indicating a leveraged but manageable capital structure typical of large-scale retailers that fund operations partly through supplier credit. Free cash flow on a trailing-twelve-month basis is $12.55 billion, but the most recent quarter showed negative free cash flow of -$1.95 billion due to $6.68 billion in capital expenditures exceeding $4.74 billion in operating cash flow — a seasonal pattern but one that highlights the capital intensity of Walmart's store and supply-chain investments. ROE of 21.98% and ROA of 6.41% demonstrate efficient capital deployment, though the high ROE is partly amplified by leverage (equity multiplier of roughly 3.07x). With a dividend payout ratio of 34.3% and a dividend yield of 0.79%, Walmart returns meaningful cash to shareholders while retaining enough to fund growth, but the negative quarterly FCF and $6.86 billion in debt repayment in Q1 FY2027 underscore the need for disciplined capital allocation.
Quarterly Revenue
$187.9B
2026-07
Revenue YoY Growth
+5.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
26.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$13.5B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WMT Overvalued?
Because Walmart is profitable — with trailing net income positive and EPS of $0.023 on a trailing basis (though this appears distorted by data timing) — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric, and Walmart trades at a trailing PE of 43.48x versus a forward PE of 33.44x. The gap between trailing and forward PE implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth ahead, with consensus EPS estimates of $4.23 for the forward period versus the current trailing figure, though the forward PE of 33.44x still represents a rich multiple for a retailer growing revenue at roughly 7% annually. The PEG ratio of 3.29 further signals that the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate, suggesting investors are paying a premium for Walmart's defensive characteristics, scale, and emerging high-margin businesses rather than for near-term earnings acceleration. Compared to the broader Consumer Defensive sector, Walmart's trailing PE of 43.48x and forward PE of 33.44x represent a substantial premium — the sector typically trades at 20–25x earnings — with the spread exceeding 70% on a trailing basis. The PS ratio of 1.33x and EV/Sales of 1.26x are more moderate and reflect Walmart's massive revenue base, while the EV/EBITDA of 21.68x and P/B of 9.55x indicate the market values Walmart's cash-generating capacity and brand franchise well above book value. This premium is partially justified by Walmart's unmatched scale, 270 million weekly customers, growing e-commerce and advertising revenue, and defensive demand profile, but the 3.29 PEG ratio and 21.68x EV/EBITDA suggest the stock is priced for perfection — leaving little margin of safety if growth disappoints. Historically, Walmart's PE ratio has ranged from roughly 15x to 56x over the past several years, with the current 43.48x trailing PE sitting in the upper quartile of its own historical band. The PS ratio of 1.33x, however, is near the lower end of its historical range (which has stretched from roughly 2.4x to 5.9x in recent periods), reflecting the stock's price decline and the company's growing revenue base. This divergence — elevated PE but compressed PS — suggests the market is pricing in margin pressure (depressing earnings) while the revenue multiple has de-rated, creating a mixed valuation picture: not a clear value opportunity, but not the extreme overvaluation that the PE alone might imply.
PE
43.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Walmart's financial risks are moderate but notable. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67 and a current ratio of 0.79, indicating a leveraged balance sheet with limited short-term liquidity. While free cash flow on a trailing-twelve-month basis is $12.55 billion, the most recent quarter showed negative free cash flow of -$1.95 billion due to $6.68 billion in capital expenditures, highlighting the capital-intensive nature of its operations. Additionally, operating margin has remained thin at around 4.2%, and net margin at 3.18%, leaving little cushion for cost increases or consumer weakness. The company's profitability is also vulnerable to wage inflation and supply chain disruptions, which could further compress margins. Market and competitive risks are significant. WMT trades at a trailing PE of 43.48x and forward PE of 33.44x, a substantial premium to the Consumer Defensive sector average of 20-25x, which exposes it to valuation compression if growth disappoints. The retail landscape is fiercely competitive, with Amazon, Costco, and Target all vying for market share, and Walmart's recent US comparable sales miss suggests it is not immune to consumer pullback. Furthermore, the Fed's interest rate hike could pressure consumer spending, although Walmart's low-price positioning may offer some resilience. With a beta of 0.595, the stock is less sensitive to market swings, but sector rotation out of defensive names could still weigh on performance. The worst-case scenario would involve a continued slowdown in consumer spending, margin compression, and a failure to grow high-margin businesses. If US comparable sales decline further and operating margins shrink, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $98.88, representing an 8.4% downside from the current $107.98. In a more severe scenario, if analyst bear-case target of $81.00 is reached, that would imply a 25.0% loss. Such a decline could be triggered by a recession, intensifying competition, or a significant earnings miss that leads to downgrades and multiple contraction.
FAQ
The key risks include: 1) Margin compression, as operating margin has been flat at ~4.2% despite revenue growth; 2) Consumer spending slowdown, evidenced by recent US comparable sales miss; 3) Competitive pressure from Amazon, Costco, and Target, which could erode market share; 4) Valuation risk, as the premium multiple could contract if growth disappoints. Additionally, the company's negative free cash flow in the latest quarter and high capital expenditures pose financial flexibility concerns.
Our 12-month forecast has a base case (55% probability) of $115-$130, assuming steady revenue growth and flat margins. The bull case (25% probability) targets $135-$155 if margin expansion accelerates, while the bear case (20% probability) sees $81-$98.88 if a consumer recession hits. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock gradually recovering as the consumer environment stabilizes. Key catalysts include Q3 earnings and Fed policy decisions.
WMT appears overvalued on earnings multiples, with a trailing PE of 43.48x and forward PE of 33.44x, compared to the Consumer Defensive sector average of 20-25x. However, its PS ratio of 1.33x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in margin pressure. The PEG ratio of 3.29 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its growth rate. Overall, the valuation is stretched, and the market expects significant margin expansion to justify the premium.
WMT is a good buy for defensive investors seeking low volatility and a reliable dividend, but the current valuation is rich. The stock trades at a forward PE of 33.44x, well above the sector average, and offers 18% upside to the average analyst target of $127.43. However, the downside risk to the 52-week low of $98.88 is about 8.4%, and to the bear-case target of $81.00 is 25%. Given the balanced risk/reward, it is more suitable for long-term holders than short-term traders.
WMT is best suited for long-term investment due to its low beta (0.595), reliable dividend (yield 0.79%), and consistent revenue growth. Short-term trading is less attractive given the current downtrend and lack of near-term catalysts. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is recommended to ride out consumer cycles and benefit from margin expansion initiatives. The stock's defensive nature makes it a core holding for conservative portfolios.