Walmart Inc. Common Stock
WMT
$111.20
+0.09%
Walmart Inc. is the world's largest retailer, operating over 10,700 stores globally, including Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club, with a dominant presence in grocery and general merchandise. As a market leader in discount retail, Walmart leverages its massive scale and supply chain efficiency to compete on price, while expanding its e-commerce and advertising businesses. The current investor narrative centers on slowing same-store sales growth, which has triggered a sharp pullback from highs, despite the company's continued revenue expansion and strategic investments in digital capabilities. Recent headlines also highlight potential tariff refunds as a tailwind, but near-term guidance concerns and valuation pressures dominate the debate.…
WMT
Walmart Inc. Common Stock
$111.20
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy WMT Today?
We rate WMT a Hold. The consensus is Buy with an average target of $138.10, implying 24% upside, but the elevated valuation and slowing same-store sales warrant caution. The thesis is that Walmart's growth initiatives will eventually justify the premium, but near-term risks could lead to further downside.
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WMT 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model sees a balanced risk-reward. Walmart's growth is solid, but the valuation is stretched, and technical momentum is negative. The stock could recover if growth continues, but the risk of de-rating is high. We would upgrade to bullish if the stock stabilizes above $115 and same-store sales reaccelerate, or downgrade to bearish if it breaks below $105 on weak guidance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Walmart Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $138.02 and implied upside of +24.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$138.02
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+24.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$81 - $155
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from $81.00 (low) to $155.00 (high), indicating a wide dispersion of views. The high target assumes continued growth and margin expansion, while the low target reflects concerns about competitive pressures and valuation de-rating. Recent ratings actions have been predominantly positive, with firms like BTIG, UBS, and RBC Capital maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings, though one firm (Freedom Broker) upgraded from Sell to Hold. The wide range suggests significant uncertainty about the pace of recovery and the sustainability of growth, but the overall sentiment remains constructive.
Bulls vs Bears: WMT Investment Factors
Walmart presents a classic battle between strong operational execution and demanding valuation. On the bull side, revenue growth is accelerating to 7.3%, free cash flow is robust at $12.55B, and analysts see 24% upside to the average target. On the bear side, the stock trades at 43.5x trailing earnings, same-store sales are decelerating, and the stock has underperformed the market by 19% over 3 months. The single most important tension is whether Walmart can sustain its growth momentum to justify its premium multiple. If growth continues to accelerate, the stock could re-rate higher; if same-store sales disappoint, the valuation could compress sharply. Currently, the bear case has stronger near-term evidence given the technical downtrend and valuation concerns, but the long-term bull case remains intact if Walmart executes on its digital and advertising strategies.
Bullish
- Accelerating revenue growth: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 7.3% YoY to $177.75B, up from 2.4% in Q4 FY2026, showing a clear acceleration trend. This was driven by strength in Walmart U.S. ($117.17B) and international segments, indicating broad-based momentum.
- Strong analyst consensus and upside: With 41 analysts, the consensus rating is 'Buy' (mean 1.53) and the average target price is $138.10, implying ~24% upside from the current $111.20. The high target of $155 suggests even greater potential if growth sustains.
- Robust free cash flow generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $12.55B, providing ample capacity for dividends, buybacks, and strategic investments. This financial flexibility supports continued expansion in e-commerce and supply chain.
- Low beta and defensive characteristics: With a beta of 0.60, Walmart offers stability in volatile markets, making it a defensive anchor. Its essential consumer products and grocery focus (60% of U.S. revenue) provide resilience during economic downturns.
Bearish
- Elevated valuation with high expectations: Trailing PE of 43.5x and forward PE of 33.9x are well above historical norms for a retailer. The PEG ratio of 3.29 suggests the market is pricing in significant growth, leaving little room for error.
- Slowing same-store sales concerns: Recent analyst commentary flagged slowing same-store sales, triggering a 4.5% drop and a 20% pullback from highs. This raises doubts about the sustainability of growth and could lead to guidance cuts.
- Negative relative strength and downtrend: WMT has underperformed the S&P 500 by 19.2% over 3 months and 14.6% over 6 months. The stock is in a clear downtrend, down 15.5% in 3 months, indicating persistent selling pressure.
- Thin profit margins: Net margin is only 3.07% and operating margin 4.18%, typical for retail but leaving little buffer for cost inflation or pricing pressure. Any margin compression could significantly impact EPS.
WMT Technical Analysis
WMT is in a clear downtrend over the past three months, with the stock falling 15.5% in that period, while the 1-year return remains positive at 13.5%. The current price of $111.20 sits at 58% of the 52-week range (low $95.42, high $135.16), indicating a significant pullback from the highs but still above the lows. This positioning suggests the market is reassessing the stock after a strong run, with the price now closer to support levels than resistance.
Beta
0.60
0.60x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-19.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$95-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+13.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | WMT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.2% | +0.3% |
| 3m | -15.5% | +4.0% |
| 6m | -6.7% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +13.5% | +20.2% |
| ytd | -1.4% | +9.6% |
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WMT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains solid, with the latest quarter (Q1 FY2027) showing $177.75 billion in revenue, up 7.3% year-over-year, and a sequential increase from $165.61 billion in the year-ago quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth, from 2.4% in Q4 FY2026 to 7.3% in Q1 FY2027, driven by strength in Walmart U.S. (which generated $117.17 billion in revenue) and international segments. However, the market is concerned about slowing same-store sales, as highlighted in recent analyst commentary, which could temper future growth expectations.
Quarterly Revenue
$177.8B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
25.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is WMT Overvalued?
Given that Walmart is profitable, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 43.5x, while the forward PE is 33.9x, indicating the market expects earnings growth to continue. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests an anticipated improvement in profitability, but the current multiple is elevated relative to historical norms.
PE
43.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 14x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
21.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.67, which is manageable but not negligible, and a current ratio of 0.79, indicating potential liquidity pressure. The company's thin net margin of 3.07% leaves little room for cost shocks, and its high payout ratio of 34.3% could limit dividend growth if earnings falter. However, strong free cash flow of $12.55B provides a cushion for debt service and investments.
FAQ
Key risks include: (1) Valuation risk: with a forward PE of 33.9x, the stock is vulnerable to multiple compression if growth slows. (2) Competitive risk: Target and Amazon are intensifying competition, which could pressure margins and market share. (3) Macro risk: with a beta of 0.60, WMT is less sensitive to market swings, but a recession could hurt consumer spending. (4) Company-specific risk: slowing same-store sales, as flagged by analysts, could lead to guidance cuts. The most severe risk is a combination of these factors, potentially driving the stock down to the 52-week low of $95.42, a 14% downside from current levels.
Over the next 12 months, our base case (50% probability) sees WMT trading in the $115-$130 range, with a target of $122.50. The bull case (25% probability) targets $130-$155, driven by strong growth and margin expansion. The bear case (25% probability) targets $95-$110, if same-store sales disappoint. The most likely scenario is moderate growth, with the stock recovering gradually as the market digests the valuation. Key factors to watch are same-store sales trends and margin performance.
WMT is overvalued relative to its own history and peers. The trailing PE of 43.5x and forward PE of 33.9x are significantly above the sector average of around 20x. The PEG ratio of 3.29 indicates that the market is pricing in high growth expectations. Compared to its 5-year average PE of ~25x, the current multiple is stretched. This valuation implies the market expects continued strong earnings growth, and any disappointment could lead to a sharp correction.
WMT offers a compelling long-term story with accelerating revenue growth of 7.3% and a 24% upside to the average analyst target of $138.10. However, the stock is trading at a premium valuation (forward PE 33.9x) and has been in a downtrend, down 15.5% in 3 months. For investors with a long-term horizon and tolerance for volatility, it could be a good buy at current levels, but those seeking near-term gains may want to wait for a clearer bottom. The biggest risk is a further de-rating if same-store sales disappoint.
WMT is better suited for long-term investment due to its defensive nature, low beta (0.60), and consistent growth. The stock has a dividend yield of 0.79% and a payout ratio of 34%, providing some income. Short-term trading is possible given the recent volatility, but the stock's high valuation makes it risky for short-term plays. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to allow the growth initiatives to materialize and the valuation to normalize. For long-term investors, WMT offers a stable core holding with potential for capital appreciation.