COST

Costco

$926.43

+1.11%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Costco Wholesale Corp operates a global chain of membership-based warehouse clubs, offering high-quality goods and services at consistently low prices across grocery, general merchandise, and other categories. As a dominant player in the discount retail industry, Costco differentiates itself through a membership model that drives customer loyalty and recurring revenue, with renewal rates exceeding 90% in key markets. The current investor narrative centers on Costco's ability to sustain growth amid consumer spending shifts and inflationary pressures, with recent news highlighting potential special dividends and the company's resilient business model. Debate continues around margin trends and the impact of macroeconomic headwinds on discretionary spending, but Costco's strong member renewal rates and value proposition provide a defensive buffer.

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COST 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $926.43
Average Target $926.43
High Target $1065.39
Low Target $787.47

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Costco's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $1204.36 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$1204.36

15 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

15

covering this stock

Price Range

$741 - $1204

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (27%)
Hold
7 (47%)
Sell
4 (27%)

Costco is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: the distribution includes multiple Outperform and Buy ratings, with only a few Hold/Neutral. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS of $28.50 and a forward P/E of 40.5x, the implied target is approximately $1,154, representing 26% upside from the current price of $916.25. This suggests strong bullish sentiment among analysts.

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COST Technical Analysis

Costco's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -5.56% and the current price of $916.25 sitting at 83.6% of its 52-week range (between $844.06 low and $1096.50 high). This positioning near the lower end of the range suggests the stock is underperforming and may be approaching a value zone, but the negative momentum warrants caution. The 52-week high of $1096.50 represents a significant resistance level, while the low of $844.06 provides a support floor.

Beta

0.87

0.87x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-16.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$844-$1097

Price range past year

Annual Return

-4.5%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCOST ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.7%+1.0%
3m-5.0%+7.9%
6m-2.6%+8.5%
1y-4.5%+20.1%
ytd+8.4%+9.9%

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COST Fundamental Analysis

Costco's revenue trajectory remains solid, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $69.60 billion reflecting 9.22% YoY growth. Over the past four quarters, revenue has grown from $63.72 billion (Q2 2025) to $69.60 billion (Q2 2026), indicating a steady growth trend. The company's grocery and fresh food segments, comprising over 53% of revenue, are driving consistent demand, while membership fees ($1.36 billion) provide a high-margin recurring revenue stream. This growth trajectory supports the investment case for a defensive retailer with pricing power.

Quarterly Revenue

$69.6B

2026-02

Revenue YoY Growth

+9.2%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

12.8%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$9.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Food and Sundries
Fresh Food
Non-Foods
Other
Membership

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Valuation Analysis: Is COST Overvalued?

Since Costco has positive net income ($2.04 billion in the latest quarter), the trailing P/E ratio of 51.72x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 40.49x implies a 21.7% discount to trailing, reflecting market expectations of earnings growth. This gap suggests investors are pricing in improved profitability ahead, which aligns with Costco's consistent margin expansion and operational efficiency.

PE

51.7x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 28x~67x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

30.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple