TGT

Target Corporation

$134.77

-0.27%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Target Corporation is one of the largest discount retailers in the United States, operating nearly 2,000 stores and offering a broad assortment of merchandise including apparel, beauty, food, hardlines, and home furnishings. The company differentiates itself through a strong omnichannel model anchored in its physical store base, which fulfills over 97% of sales, and its private-label brands that account for around 30% of revenue. The current investor narrative centers on a potential turnaround under new leadership, with strong Q1 earnings and raised guidance driving stock outperformance, though analysts remain cautious about the sustainability of momentum amid consumer spending pressures.

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TGT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $134.77
Average Target $134.77
High Target $154.99
Low Target $114.55

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Target Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $175.20 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$175.20

9 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

9

covering this stock

Price Range

$108 - $175

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (22%)
Hold
4 (44%)
Sell
3 (33%)

Target is covered by 9 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The distribution includes 4 Buy/Overweight ratings (DA Davidson, UBS, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley), 4 Neutral/Hold ratings (Mizuho, JP Morgan, Evercore ISI, BMO Capital), and 1 Underperform (BNP Paribas). The average estimated EPS for the current fiscal year is $11.09, with a range of $10.86 to $11.21. The average revenue estimate is $122.87 billion, with a range of $120.97 billion to $123.96 billion. While specific price targets are not provided, the consensus recommendation suggests moderate upside potential. The implied upside from the current price of $135.14 to the average target (if available) would be positive, but without explicit targets, we note the sentiment is cautiously optimistic. The range of analyst opinions is relatively narrow, with most ratings clustered around Buy or Neutral, indicating moderate conviction. The presence of one Underperform rating (BNP Paribas) highlights some bearish sentiment, likely due to concerns about margin pressure and consumer spending. Recent ratings actions show no changes since March 2026, with firms maintaining their stances after Q1 earnings. The wide spread between the low EPS estimate ($10.86) and high ($11.21) suggests some uncertainty about earnings trajectory, but the overall consensus is that Target's turnaround is progressing, albeit with risks.

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TGT Technical Analysis

Target's stock is in a sustained uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +29.02% significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.63%. The current price of $135.14 sits at 78.5% of its 52-week range ($83.44–$142.82), indicating the stock is trading near the upper end of its range, reflecting strong momentum but also potential overextension. The 52-week high of $142.82 represents a key resistance level, while the 52-week low of $83.44 provides a long-term support floor. Short-term momentum is accelerating, with a 1-month price change of +5.59% and a 3-month change of +10.87%, both outpacing the S&P 500's respective gains of 4.07% and 11.11%. The 1-month relative strength of 1.52 versus the S&P 500 confirms recent outperformance, though the 3-month relative strength is slightly negative at -0.24, suggesting a minor divergence that could indicate a temporary pullback or consolidation. The stock's beta of 0.98 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, meaning it offers no significant diversification benefit in terms of risk. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $83.44, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $142.82. A breakout above $142.82 would signal a continuation of the uptrend and likely attract momentum buyers, while a breakdown below $83.44 would be a bearish signal, potentially leading to a test of lower levels. The stock's recent price action shows it pulled back from a high of $141.20 in late June to around $126 before recovering to $135.14, suggesting volatility around earnings and macro news.

Beta

0.98

0.98x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$83-$143

Price range past year

Annual Return

+29.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodTGT ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.3%+1.0%
3m+12.7%+7.9%
6m+22.7%+8.5%
1y+29.3%+20.1%
ytd+34.1%+9.9%

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TGT Fundamental Analysis

Target's revenue trajectory is growing, with the most recent quarterly revenue (Q4 FY2025 ending January 31, 2026) of $31.919 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 3.25%. However, the multi-quarter trend shows deceleration: Q1 FY2025 revenue was $23.846 billion (YoY growth of 2.8% vs. prior year Q1 of $24.531 billion), Q2 was $25.211 billion (YoY growth of 2.6% vs. $25.452 billion), and Q3 was $25.270 billion (YoY growth of 1.6% vs. $25.668 billion). The Q4 acceleration to 3.25% YoY growth is encouraging, driven by strength in beauty and household essentials (30% of revenue) and food and beverage (24%), while apparel and home furnishings remain pressured. The company is profitable, with net income of $1.382 billion in Q4 FY2025 and a net margin of 4.33%. Gross margin in Q4 was 24.73%, down from 28.22% in Q3 and 28.97% in Q2, indicating margin compression due to promotional activity and cost pressures. Operating margin was 5.86% in Q4, down from 6.17% in Q1, reflecting higher SG&A expenses. The company's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.26, indicating moderate leverage. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months (TTM) is $2.93 billion, with Q4 free cash flow of $2.287 billion, a significant improvement from negative free cash flow in Q1 (-$515 million). Return on equity (ROE) is 22.92%, demonstrating strong profitability relative to equity. The current ratio of 0.94 suggests adequate short-term liquidity, though slightly below 1.0.

Quarterly Revenue

$31.9B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+3.25%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

24.73%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$2.9B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Advertising Revenue
Beauty
Credit Card Profit Sharing
Food and Beverage
Hardlines
Home Furnishings and Decor
Beauty and Household Essentials
Other Product

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Valuation Analysis: Is TGT Overvalued?

Since net income is positive ($1.382 billion in Q4), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 12.93x, while the forward P/E is 15.14x, implying the market expects earnings to decline slightly over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests cautious expectations for earnings growth. Compared to the industry average (Discount Stores), Target's trailing P/E of 12.93x is at a discount to the sector average of approximately 18x (based on typical retail valuations), representing a 28% discount. This discount may be justified by Target's slower revenue growth relative to peers like Walmart and its margin compression, but it also suggests potential value if the turnaround gains traction. Historically, Target's trailing P/E has ranged from around 8.8x (Q4 FY2025) to over 100x (Q2 FY2022) over the past five years. The current 12.93x is near the lower end of its historical range, indicating the stock is relatively cheap compared to its own history. This low multiple could reflect the market's skepticism about sustained earnings growth, but it also presents a potential opportunity if the company can deliver on its turnaround plan.

PE

12.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 9x~103x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

7.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple