Tyson Foods
TSN
$51.42
-0.66%
Tyson Foods, Inc. is a global protein-focused food producer, manufacturing and marketing chicken, beef, pork, and prepared foods under iconic brands such as Tyson, Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, Ball Park, and Sara Lee. As one of the world's largest food companies, Tyson holds a leading position in the U.S. meat industry, with chicken and beef comprising roughly 40% and 30% of sales, respectively. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a challenging beef cycle marked by record cattle prices and tight supply, while leveraging strength in its chicken and prepared foods segments to drive growth. Recent earnings beat expectations and management raised full-year guidance, yet the stock has declined sharply since then, reflecting concerns over near-term headwinds and the sustainability of margin recovery.…
TSN
Tyson Foods
$51.42
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy TSN Today?
Based on the analysis, TSN is rated a 'Hold' with a cautious tilt toward buying on weakness. The consensus analyst rating is 'Hold' with an average price target of $66.08, implying 28.5% upside. The thesis is that TSN is a cyclical value play, but the timing of the beef cycle recovery is uncertain, making it a wait-and-see situation.
Sign up to view all
TSN 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral, reflecting a balanced risk/reward profile. TSN is undervalued on forward earnings, but the low margins and uncertain beef cycle recovery temper enthusiasm. The stock's technical downtrend and recent guidance cut suggest near-term weakness, but the potential for a strong earnings recovery provides a floor. If the company delivers on its EPS projections and shows improving margins, the stance would upgrade to bullish. Conversely, a further deterioration in beef conditions or a dividend cut would lead to a bearish stance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Tyson Foods's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $66.08 and implied upside of +28.5% versus the current price.
Average Target
$66.08
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+28.5%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$56 - $78
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage is moderate, with 12 analysts providing ratings on Tyson Foods. The consensus recommendation is 'Hold,' with a mean rating of 2.62 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $66.08, implying an upside of 28.5% from the current price of $51.42. The distribution of ratings is not provided, but the 'Hold' consensus suggests a neutral stance, with analysts waiting for clearer signs of a beef cycle recovery. The low target is $56.00, which is still above the current price, indicating that even the most bearish analyst sees some upside. The high target of $78.00 implies a potential gain of 51.7%, likely assuming a strong recovery in beef margins and successful execution of the company's growth strategies. Recent ratings actions have been mixed, with Piper Sandler upgrading to Overweight in April 2026, while JP Morgan and B of A Securities maintain Neutral ratings. The wide range between low and high targets reflects uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of the beef cycle recovery.
Bulls vs Bears: TSN Investment Factors
Tyson Foods presents a classic cyclical value opportunity, with the stock trading near its 52-week low and at a forward P/E of 12x, a 45% discount to the sector. The bull case rests on a strong earnings recovery driven by chicken and prepared foods, while the bear case centers on persistent beef cycle headwinds and thin margins. Currently, the bearish technical momentum and recent guidance cut weigh more heavily, but the potential for a beef cycle recovery and analyst upside of 28.5% tilt the balance toward a cautiously optimistic view. The key tension is whether the beef cycle trough will reverse as expected, which would validate the low forward multiple and drive significant upside.
Bullish
- Forward P/E at 45% discount to sector: TSN trades at a forward P/E of 12.06x versus the consumer defensive sector average of ~22x, a 45% discount. This implies the market is pricing in a cyclical trough in earnings, offering value if the beef cycle recovers.
- Chicken and prepared foods driving growth: Q2 FY2026 revenue grew 4.43% YoY to $13.653B, with chicken and prepared foods offsetting beef weakness. Management raised full-year guidance, signaling confidence in these segments' momentum.
- Significant earnings recovery expected: Analysts project EPS of $6.59 for the next fiscal year, a massive jump from the trailing EPS of $0.025. The forward P/E of 12x suggests the market expects a strong rebound, supported by improving margins.
- Analyst targets imply 28.5% upside: The average analyst price target is $66.08, representing 28.5% upside from the current price of $51.42. Even the low target of $56.00 is 8.9% above current levels, indicating limited downside per sell-side.
Bearish
- Stock in steep downtrend near 52-week low: TSN is down 16.3% over six months and trades just 1.7% above its 52-week low of $50.56. The stock has fallen 26% from its high, reflecting persistent selling pressure and negative momentum.
- Beef cycle headwinds persist: Record cattle prices and tight supply are compressing beef margins, a segment that constitutes ~30% of sales. The company's overall gross margin is only 7.05%, still historically low, indicating ongoing cost pressures.
- Thin profitability with net margin of 1.9%: Q2 FY2026 net income of $260M translates to a net margin of just 1.9%, barely above breakeven. This leaves little room for error if input costs rise or consumer demand weakens.
- Trailing P/E of 39.85x is misleadingly high: Due to depressed earnings, the trailing P/E is 39.85x, far above the sector average. This could deter value investors and suggests the market is pricing in a recovery that may be delayed.
TSN Technical Analysis
Tyson Foods is in a clear downtrend, with the stock price at $51.42 as of September 4, 2026, down 8.47% over the past year and 16.30% over the past six months. The current price sits just 1.7% above its 52-week low of $50.56 and 26.0% below its 52-week high of $69.48, indicating that the stock is trading near the bottom of its range. This positioning suggests a bearish sentiment, with sellers in control and a lack of buying interest, though it may also present a value opportunity if the company's fundamentals stabilize.
Beta
0.37
0.37x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$51-$69
Price range past year
Annual Return
-8.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TSN Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -11.6% | -0.4% |
| 3m | -12.4% | +4.2% |
| 6m | -16.3% | +13.7% |
| 1y | -8.5% | +19.0% |
| ytd | -11.4% | +12.9% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
TSN Fundamental Analysis
Tyson's revenue has shown modest growth, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ended March 28, 2026) reporting $13.653 billion, up 4.43% year-over-year. However, this growth is inconsistent, as the prior quarter (Q1 FY2026) saw revenue of $14.313 billion, a sequential decline of 4.6%. Segment-wise, chicken and prepared foods are driving growth, while beef faces headwinds due to high cattle costs. The company's net income of $260 million in Q2 FY2026 represents a significant improvement from the $7 million in the year-ago quarter, but profitability remains thin, with a net margin of just 1.90%. Gross margin improved to 7.05% from 4.59% a year ago, but this is still low compared to historical levels, reflecting ongoing cost pressures in the beef segment.
Quarterly Revenue
$13.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+4.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
7.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is TSN Overvalued?
Given that Tyson's trailing twelve-month net income is positive (EPS of $0.025), the P/E ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/E stands at 39.85x, while the forward P/E is 12.06x, implying that the market expects a significant earnings recovery. This wide gap suggests that the market is pricing in a rebound in profitability, which is supported by analyst estimates of EPS around $6.59 for the next fiscal year. However, the current earnings are depressed due to the beef cycle, making the trailing P/E misleadingly high. Compared to the consumer defensive sector average P/E of approximately 22x, Tyson's forward P/E of 12.06x represents a 45% discount, indicating that the stock is undervalued relative to its peers on a forward basis. Historically, Tyson's P/E has ranged from as low as 5.18x in 2021 to over 96x in 2025, and the current forward multiple is near the lower end of that range, suggesting that the market is pricing in a cyclical trough in earnings.
PE
39.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 5x~97x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
10.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are significant, primarily stemming from Tyson's exposure to volatile commodity prices. The beef segment, which accounts for ~30% of sales, is suffering from record cattle prices, compressing margins to a gross margin of just 7.05% in Q2 FY2026. This thin margin leaves the company vulnerable to further cost inflation or demand weakness. Additionally, net income of $260M in Q2 represents a net margin of only 1.9%, indicating low profitability and limited financial flexibility. The company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.49, which is manageable but adds fixed interest costs of ~$97M per quarter, further pressuring earnings during downturns.