Under Armour
UAA
$6.85
+3.63%
Under Armour develops, markets, and distributes athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories globally, serving professional athletes, teams, and active lifestyle consumers through wholesale, direct-to-consumer, and retail channels. As a challenger brand in the athletic apparel industry, it competes with giants like Nike and Adidas, leveraging its performance-focused identity and founder Kevin Plank's controlling stake. The current investor narrative centers on a turnaround story, with the company reporting declining revenues and persistent losses, while cost-cutting initiatives and a renewed focus on core products aim to restore profitability. Recent news highlights broader market pressures from inflation and rate-cut uncertainty, which weigh on consumer discretionary stocks like Under Armour.…
UAA
Under Armour
$6.85
Related headlines
UAA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Under Armour's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $6.28 and implied upside of -8.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$6.28
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-8.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$4 - $13
Analyst target range
Under Armour is covered by 19 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' (mean rating 2.92 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is strong buy). The average price target is $6.28, implying approximately 8.3% downside from the current price of $6.85. The distribution shows a mix of hold and neutral ratings, with a few buy and sell ratings, indicating a lack of strong conviction. Recent actions include UBS maintaining a Buy, while Stifel downgraded from Buy to Hold, and Citigroup reiterated Sell. The target price range spans from a low of $4.00 to a high of $12.50. The high target of $12.50 implies 82% upside and likely assumes a successful turnaround with margin expansion and revenue stabilization, possibly driven by new product cycles or cost savings. The low target of $4.00 suggests a 42% downside, pricing in continued market share loss, margin compression, or a recessionary impact. The wide spread between low and high targets ($8.50) indicates high uncertainty about the company's future, consistent with the mixed analyst sentiment and the stock's volatile fundamentals.
Bulls vs Bears: UAA Investment Factors
Under Armour presents a high-risk, high-reward turnaround story. On the bull side, the stock trades at a deep discount to its historical valuation and industry peers, with a P/S of 0.50x near all-time lows, and recent cost-cutting is narrowing losses. On the bear side, the company continues to post declining revenues, negative free cash flow, and net losses, with a consensus hold rating and average target implying downside. The single most important tension is whether the cost-cutting and strategic refocus can stabilize revenue and return the company to profitability before cash reserves run out or competitive pressures from Nike and Adidas intensify. Currently, the bear case has stronger evidence given the lack of revenue growth and persistent losses, but the low valuation provides a floor for patient investors.
Bullish
- Deep value at historical low P/S: The trailing P/S ratio of 0.50x is near the bottom of its 5-year range (0.5x-6.3x) and at a 50% discount to the apparel industry average of ~1.0x. This suggests the market has already priced in significant distress, offering a potential margin of safety if the turnaround gains traction.
- Cost cutting narrowing losses: SG&A expenses declined from $598 million in Q4 FY2025 to $518 million in Q4 FY2026, a 13.4% reduction. This helped narrow the net loss from $67.5 million to $43.4 million year-over-year, demonstrating management's commitment to restoring profitability.
- Recent price momentum and low base: The stock has surged 13.8% in the past month and 29.3% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 by 13.2% over one month. Trading at $6.85, it is 68% above its 52-week low of $4.13, indicating a potential trend reversal from deeply oversold levels.
- Analyst high target implies 82% upside: The analyst high price target of $12.50 represents 82% upside from the current price. While this is an optimistic scenario, it reflects the possibility of a successful turnaround with margin expansion and revenue stabilization.
Bearish
- Persistent revenue decline and losses: Revenue in Q4 FY2026 was $1.171 billion, down 0.6% year-over-year, and the trailing twelve-month net loss was $496 million. The company has been unprofitable for four consecutive quarters, with negative free cash flow of $162 million TTM, indicating ongoing operational challenges.
- Negative free cash flow and high debt: Free cash flow was negative $347 million in Q4 FY2026 and negative $162 million TTM, while the debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.37. The company is not generating enough cash internally, relying on its $312 million cash balance and external financing.
- Analyst consensus hold with downside risk: The consensus recommendation is 'hold' with a mean rating of 2.92 (1-5 scale), and the average price target of $6.28 implies 8.3% downside from the current price of $6.85. The low target of $4.00 suggests a potential 42% decline.
- High beta and macro sensitivity: With a beta of 1.67, the stock is 67% more volatile than the market. Recent news indicates persistent inflation is reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, which could pressure consumer discretionary stocks like Under Armour, especially given its weak fundamentals.
UAA Technical Analysis
Under Armour's 1-year price change of +29.3% reflects a recovery from its 52-week low of $4.13, but the stock remains well below its 52-week high of $8.15, currently trading at 84% of the range. This positioning suggests the stock is in a recovery phase but has not yet reclaimed prior highs, indicating cautious optimism rather than full momentum. The 1-year relative strength of -20.6% versus the S&P 500 shows significant underperformance, highlighting that the recovery is stock-specific rather than market-driven. Over the past 3 months, the stock gained 9.4%, and over 1 month it surged 13.8%, indicating accelerating short-term momentum. This contrasts with the longer-term underperformance, suggesting a potential trend reversal or mean reversion. The 1-month relative strength of +13.2% versus the S&P 500 confirms the recent outperformance, but the 3-month relative strength of only +3.1% implies the acceleration is very recent. The 52-week low of $4.13 provides strong support, while the 52-week high of $8.15 acts as resistance. A breakout above $8.15 would signal a bullish reversal and potential for further upside, while a breakdown below $4.13 would indicate renewed weakness. With a beta of 1.67, the stock is 67% more volatile than the market, amplifying both gains and losses, which is critical for risk management.
Beta
1.67
1.67x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-43.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$4-$8
Price range past year
Annual Return
+0.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | UAA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.8% | +0.6% |
| 3m | +9.4% | +6.3% |
| 6m | +18.5% | +9.1% |
| 1y | +0.3% | +20.9% |
| ytd | +29.5% | +10.7% |
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UAA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue in the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2026, ended March 31, 2026) was $1.171 billion, down 0.6% year-over-year, continuing a trend of stagnation or slight decline. Over the trailing four quarters, revenue has been roughly flat, with Q3 FY2026 at $1.334 billion, Q2 at $1.342 billion, and Q1 at $1.137 billion. The apparel segment generated $1.712 billion, footwear $547 million, and accessories $201 million, with apparel being the primary driver. The lack of growth raises concerns about market share loss and competitive pressures, making the investment case dependent on a successful turnaround. The company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of $43.4 million in Q4 FY2026 and a trailing twelve-month net loss of $496 million. Gross margin improved to 42.0% in Q4 from 41.9% a year ago, but operating margin was negative at -2.2%. The net margin of -3.7% reflects ongoing cost structure challenges, though the company has been cutting SG&A expenses, which declined from $598 million in Q4 FY2025 to $518 million in Q4 FY2026. The trajectory toward profitability remains uncertain, with losses narrowing from the prior year's Q4 loss of $67.5 million. Under Armour has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37, indicating moderate leverage, and a current ratio of 1.62, suggesting adequate liquidity. However, free cash flow was negative $347 million in Q4 FY2026 and negative $162 million on a trailing twelve-month basis, signaling that the company is not generating enough cash internally to fund operations. Return on equity is deeply negative at -35.0%, reflecting persistent losses and eroding shareholder value. The negative free cash flow yield implies reliance on external financing or balance sheet cash, which stood at $312 million at quarter-end.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
42.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-162163000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is UAA Overvalued?
Since net income is negative, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing P/S is 0.50x, while the forward P/S (based on estimated revenue of $5.84 billion) is approximately 0.42x. The gap between trailing and forward P/S implies the market expects revenue stabilization or modest growth, but the low multiple already reflects skepticism. Compared to the apparel manufacturing industry average P/S of approximately 1.0x (estimated), Under Armour trades at a 50% discount, indicating the market is pricing in significant operational challenges. This discount is justified by the company's declining revenue, negative margins, and uncertain turnaround prospects. Historically, Under Armour's P/S ratio has ranged from about 0.5x to 6.3x over the past five years. The current P/S of 0.50x is near the bottom of its historical range, suggesting the stock is priced for a worst-case scenario. This could represent a value opportunity if the turnaround succeeds, but also reflects the risk of further deterioration. The price-to-book ratio of 1.75x is also near historical lows, reinforcing the deep value characterization.
PE
-5.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~95x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-67.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Under Armour's primary financial risk is its persistent unprofitability and negative free cash flow. The trailing twelve-month net loss of $496 million and negative free cash flow of $162 million indicate the company is burning cash, with only $312 million in cash on hand. The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37 adds leverage risk, and the negative ROE of -35.0% reflects severe shareholder value destruction. Revenue has been flat to declining, with Q4 FY2026 revenue down 0.6% YoY, and gross margin at 42.0% remains below historical levels, leaving little room for error in the turnaround plan.
Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.67 makes it highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, and recent inflation data has reduced the probability of Fed rate cuts, which could further pressure consumer discretionary spending. Under Armour faces intense competition from Nike and Adidas, which have larger marketing budgets and brand equity. The company's market share has been eroding, and its 1-year relative strength of -20.6% versus the S&P 500 underscores its underperformance. Valuation risk is present despite the low P/S, as the discount may be justified by the company's weak fundamentals, and any further deterioration could lead to multiple compression.
Worst-Case Scenario: In a severe downturn, Under Armour could face continued revenue declines, margin compression, and cash burn leading to a liquidity crisis. If the turnaround fails and losses persist, the stock could fall to its 52-week low of $4.13 or below, representing a 40% decline from the current price of $6.85. The analyst low target of $4.00 aligns with this scenario, implying a 42% downside. Historical max drawdown of -43.4% suggests that a drop to around $3.88 is possible in a worst-case environment.