VMC

Vulcan Materials Company

$299.09

-1.74%
Jun 23, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Vulcan Materials Company is the largest producer of construction aggregates in the United States, operating in the Basic Materials sector with a core business of supplying crushed stone, sand, and gravel. The company is a dominant market leader with a vast reserve base, strategically positioned in high-growth Sun Belt states, which provides a significant competitive moat through its local market density and logistical advantages. The current investor narrative is bifurcated, focusing on the company's resilient pricing power and consistent dividend growth, as evidenced by a recent dividend increase, against a backdrop of concerns about cyclical demand weakness and its classification as a 'falling knife' by some analysts following a significant price correction earlier in the year.

People also watch

Martin Marietta Materials

Martin Marietta Materials

MLM

Analysis
Eagle Materials

Eagle Materials

EXP

Analysis
Knife River Corporation

Knife River Corporation

KNF

Analysis
Southern Copper Corporation

Southern Copper Corporation

SCCO

Analysis
Newmont Mining Corporation

Newmont Mining Corporation

NEM

Analysis

VMC 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $299.09
Average Target $299.09
High Target $343.95349999999996
Low Target $254.22649999999996

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Vulcan Materials Company's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $388.82 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$388.82

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$239 - $389

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage is limited with only 6 analysts, indicating this large-cap stock has selective institutional following. The consensus sentiment appears mixed-to-cautious, as evidenced by recent rating actions including a downgrade from JP Morgan (Overweight to Neutral) and DA Davidson (Buy to Neutral) in early 2026, contrasting with maintained Buy ratings from Citigroup and Truist Securities. The average EPS estimate for the coming year is $13.44, with a range from $12.85 to $14.09, implying projected earnings growth from the recent quarterly run-rate. The wide target price range, implied by the EPS estimates and typical sector multiples, signals high uncertainty regarding the near-term macro environment for construction materials and the company's ability to maintain its premium margins.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

VMC Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile recovery phase after a sharp correction, with the 1-year price change of +17.32% masking significant intra-year turbulence. Currently trading at $302.84, the price sits approximately 64% of the way up from its 52-week low of $252.35 towards its high of $331.09, indicating it has recovered from the lows but remains well off peak levels, suggesting lingering caution. The recent momentum is notably strong, with a 1-month surge of +16.72% and a 3-month gain of +17.20%, both significantly outpacing the S&P 500's respective returns of +0.74% and +15.14%, signaling a powerful short-term rebound that has nearly erased the prior downturn. This divergence from the weaker 6-month performance of +3.76% suggests the downtrend may have found a bottom, with the stock exhibiting strong relative strength of +15.98 over the past month. Key technical levels are clearly defined, with immediate support at the recent March low near $257 and major resistance at the February high of $331.09; a sustained breakout above $331 would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a failure below $257 could indicate a retest of the 52-week low. With a beta of 1.06, the stock exhibits market-like volatility, but the recent price action and a max drawdown of -22.2% highlight its sensitivity to macro and sector-specific sentiment shifts.

Beta

1.06

1.06x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.2%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$252-$331

Price range past year

Annual Return

+14.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodVMC ReturnS&P 500
1m+14.7%-1.6%
3m+11.0%+11.7%
6m+1.9%+6.3%
1y+14.6%+22.2%
ytd+2.2%+7.6%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

VMC Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $1.91B representing a 3.2% year-over-year increase; however, examining the quarterly sequence from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows revenue peaked in Q3 at $2.28B before declining, indicating potential seasonality or softening demand as the year progressed. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 net income of $252 million yielding a net margin of 13.17%, though this represents a compression from the Q3 net margin of 16.61%; gross margin for Q4 was 25.46%, down from 30.16% in Q3, reflecting cost pressures or mix shifts, but the full-year gross margin from valuation data stands at a healthier 27.3%. The balance sheet is robust with a strong current ratio of 2.69 and a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.634, while the company generates substantial cash, evidenced by trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.14 billion, providing ample internal funding for dividends, share buybacks, and strategic acquisitions without over-reliance on external debt markets.

Quarterly Revenue

$1.9B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.25%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Aggregates
Asphalt
Concrete

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is VMC Overvalued?

Given a positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is elevated at 34.81x, while the forward P/E is lower at 27.95x, indicating the market expects earnings growth to bring the valuation down to a more reasonable level over the next year. Compared to sector averages, Vulcan's valuation commands a significant premium; for instance, its EV/EBITDA of 16.69x is well above typical industrial materials multiples, justified by its market-leading position, high returns on equity (12.68%), and the defensive, infrastructure-linked nature of its aggregates business which is less cyclical than pure construction plays. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 34.81x sits above the multi-year range observed in the historical ratios data, which has fluctuated between the high 20s and high 40s, suggesting the stock is pricing in optimistic expectations near the upper end of its historical band, leaving little room for disappointment.

PE

35.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 24x~87x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple