Versant
VSNT
$35.18
-3.17%
Versant Media Group is an independent media company built from NBCUniversal's former cable television networks — USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, SYFY, and Golf Channel — alongside complementary digital assets including Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, GolfPass, and SportsEngine. Spun off from Comcast and listed on the Nasdaq in December 2025, Versant is a pure-play cable networks and digital media operator that monetizes primarily through advertising and carriage/platform fees, with a workforce of roughly 4,400 employees. The investment narrative centers on whether a legacy cable-network portfolio can offset cord-cutting headwinds through its digital and streaming-adjacent properties, with the advertising segment (roughly $368 million) and platforms segment (roughly $192 million) representing the disclosed revenue mix. Recent attention has been driven by the Comcast spinoff mechanics, a deeply discounted earnings multiple, and debate over whether the company is a value trap or a cash-generative turnaround story in a structurally challenged industry.…
VSNT
Versant
$35.18
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy VSNT Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold with a value bias. The core thesis is that Versant is a deeply discounted, cash-generative spinoff whose 7.0x trailing PE and 3.30x EV/EBITDA already price in substantial cable-industry deterioration, but the lack of a visible catalyst for revenue stabilization and the stock's persistent relative underperformance argue against aggressive accumulation. The analyst average target of $45.67 implies 29.8% upside, but the absence of a formal consensus rating and the wide target range ($39-$60) suggest limited conviction.
Supporting evidence for the Hold rating includes: (1) valuation is undemanding at 7.0x trailing earnings and 0.97x sales, versus sector norms of 15-25x earnings and 2-4x sales; (2) free cash flow is robust at $1.956 billion trailing, yielding roughly 30% against the $6.50 billion market cap; (3) the balance sheet is strong with debt-to-equity of 0.0955 and a current ratio of 4.02; and (4) profitability is healthy with a 56.09% trailing gross margin and 19.02% operating margin. However, revenue declined 1.11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, and the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20.34 percentage points over six months, indicating that the market is not yet convinced the cash flows are sustainable.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) acceleration of cord-cutting leading to revenue declines exceeding 5% annually; (2) margin compression from content-cost inflation or advertising weakness; and (3) a breakdown below the 52-week low of $27.17, which would confirm the downtrend and likely trigger further selling. The rating would upgrade to Buy if revenue growth turns positive or if the stock approaches the 52-week low with stabilizing fundamentals, and it would downgrade to Sell if revenue declines accelerate beyond 3% or if free cash flow deteriorates materially. Relative to its own history, the stock is near the bottom of its valuation band (PE was 20.75x in Q3 2025 vs. 7.0x now), and relative to peers it trades at a steep discount, suggesting it is undervalued but with a reason.
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VSNT 12-Month Price Forecast
Versant presents a classic deep-value opportunity with a fortress balance sheet and exceptional cash generation, but the structural decline of cable networks creates a genuine risk of a value trap. The valuation already discounts significant deterioration, and the 30% free cash flow yield provides a margin of safety, yet the lack of revenue growth and persistent relative underperformance suggest the market is waiting for a catalyst. The analyst community is uniformly above the current price, but thin coverage and the absence of a consensus rating mean conviction is limited. I would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth turns positive or if the company announces a substantial capital return program, and I would downgrade to bearish if revenue declines accelerate beyond 3% or if free cash flow deteriorates below $1.5 billion annually.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Versant's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $45.17 and implied upside of +28.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$45.17
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+28.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$39 - $60
Analyst target range
Six analysts cover Versant, and the consensus average target price is $45.67, which implies roughly +29.8% upside from the current $35.18 price. The recommendation field is listed as "none," meaning no standardized consensus rating is available, but the target distribution — with a low of $39.00 and a high of $60.00 — is uniformly above the current price, indicating that every covering analyst sees the stock as undervalued at these levels. The most recent institutional rating on record is Goldman Sachs at Neutral (dated May 15, 2026, unchanged from prior Neutral), suggesting that while price targets are above market, at least one major firm remains on the sidelines pending evidence of fundamental stabilization.
The target range of $39.00 to $60.00 represents a spread of roughly 54% between low and high, which signals meaningful disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $60.00 — about 71% above the current price — likely assumes successful digital transformation, advertising recovery, and multiple expansion back toward historical media-sector norms, while the low target of $39.00 (+10.9%) prices in continued cord-cutting pressure and flat revenue. The estimated revenue average of $6.20 billion and EPS average of $12.94 (on an adjusted basis) suggest analysts expect stable top-line performance with significant earnings power; however, the wide dispersion and the absence of a formal consensus recommendation mean conviction is limited. With only six analysts and a recent spinoff listing, coverage is thin, which typically implies less efficient price discovery and higher volatility — investors should weight the target range as directional rather than precise.
Bulls vs Bears: VSNT Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger near-term evidence: revenue is declining, the stock is in a confirmed downtrend with severe relative underperformance, and margin volatility undermines earnings predictability. However, the bull case rests on a genuinely extraordinary valuation — 7.0x trailing earnings, 3.30x EV/EBITDA, and a ~30% free cash flow yield — that already prices in substantial deterioration. The single most important tension is whether Versant's digital assets and advertising stabilization can offset cord-cutting before the market loses patience with the value thesis. If revenue growth turns positive or even stabilizes at current levels, the multiple could re-rate sharply; if the decline accelerates, the low multiple could prove to be a value trap.
Bullish
- Deep value on earnings and cash flow: VSNT trades at a trailing PE of 7.0x and EV/EBITDA of 3.30x, versus sector norms of 15-25x earnings for scaled media names. With trailing free cash flow of $1.956 billion against a $6.50 billion market cap, the free cash flow yield is roughly 30%, an extraordinary cash-generation profile that provides a substantial margin of safety.
- Fortress balance sheet with minimal leverage: Debt-to-equity is just 0.0955 and the current ratio is 4.02, meaning Versant carries very little debt relative to equity and has ample short-term liquidity. The company retired $1.973 billion of debt in Q1 2026 while ending with $1.193 billion of cash, demonstrating strong deleveraging capacity.
- Analyst targets uniformly above current price: All six covering analysts have price targets above the current $35.18, with a low of $39.00 (+10.9%) and a high of $60.00 (+70.6%), averaging $45.67 (+29.8% upside). The absence of any target below the current price suggests the sell-side sees the stock as undervalued at these levels.
- Robust profitability despite revenue pressure: Q1 2026 net income was $286 million on $1.687 billion of revenue, a 16.95% net margin, with gross profit of $1.049 billion (62.18% gross margin) and operating income of $442 million (26.20% operating margin). Trailing gross margin of 56.09% and operating margin of 19.02% are healthy relative to the advertising/agency peer group.
Bearish
- Revenue is flat-to-declining: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.687 billion declined 1.11% year-over-year from $1.706 billion in Q1 2025, and the multi-quarter trend shows sequential stability around $1.6-1.7 billion with a mildly negative direction. This is consistent with a mature cable networks business facing structural cord-cutting headwinds.
- Severe relative underperformance: The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 on every measurable horizon: 1-month relative strength of -9.43, 3-month of -9.93, and 6-month of -20.34. The most recent session fell -3.17% on elevated volume of 5.81 million shares, suggesting institutional distribution rather than retail noise.
- Margin volatility quarter-to-quarter: Gross margin swung from 39.38% in Q4 2025 to 62.18% in Q1 2026, while net margin ranged from 4.81% in Q3 2025 to 16.95% in Q1 2026. This volatility reflects content-cost timing and restructuring noise around the spinoff, making earnings less predictable and complicating valuation.
- Thin analyst coverage and no consensus rating: Only six analysts cover Versant, and the recommendation field is listed as 'none,' meaning no standardized consensus rating is available. The target range of $39.00 to $60.00 represents a 54% spread, signaling meaningful disagreement and limited conviction about the company's trajectory.
VSNT Technical Analysis
Versant is in a broad downtrend punctuated by sharp counter-trend rallies, with the stock at $35.18 versus a 52-week high of $59.00 and a 52-week low of $27.17 — meaning it trades at roughly 25% of its 52-week range, closer to the floor than the ceiling. The 1-year price change of -1.15% masks a much weaker path: the stock peaked near $44.43 in mid-May 2026 and has since lost ground, with a max drawdown of -32.41% from peak. This positioning near the lower end of the annual range signals persistent distribution rather than accumulation, and the burden of proof sits with the bulls to reclaim the mid-$40s before the trend can be called repaired.
Short-term momentum is decisively negative and diverging from the already-soft longer-term picture. The 1-month change of -10.39% and 3-month change of -7.93% both lag the S&P 500's -0.96% and +2.00% over the same windows, producing relative strength readings of -9.43 and -9.93 respectively. The most recent session alone fell -3.17% on volume of 5.81 million shares, a high-volume down day that suggests institutional selling rather than retail noise. With the 6-month change at -2.90% and relative strength of -20.34 versus the index, the stock is underperforming on every measurable horizon — a classic relative-strength breakdown that argues against bottom-fishing until momentum stabilizes.
Key technical levels are well defined: support sits at the 52-week low of $27.17, roughly 23% below the current $35.18 price, while resistance is the 52-week high of $59.00, about 68% above. A breakdown below $27.17 would confirm the downtrend and likely trigger further momentum-driven selling, whereas a breakout above the $44-45 area (the May 2026 swing high) would be the first meaningful sign of a trend reversal. The short ratio of 3.35 indicates moderate short interest — not a squeeze setup, but enough to amplify downside moves; with no beta provided, volatility must be inferred from the -32.41% max drawdown, which implies materially above-market risk for position-sizing purposes.
Beta
—
—
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$27-$59
Price range past year
Annual Return
—
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | VSNT Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.4% | -0.5% |
| 3m | -7.9% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -2.9% | +16.6% |
| 1y | — | +14.8% |
| ytd | — | +11.7% |
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VSNT Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is essentially flat-to-declining: the most recent quarter (Q1 2026, ended March 31) posted $1.687 billion, down 1.11% year-over-year from $1.706 billion in Q1 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows sequential stability around $1.6-1.7 billion (Q4 2025: $1.610 billion; Q3 2025: $1.663 billion; Q2 2025: $1.708 billion), but the direction of travel is mildly negative, consistent with a mature cable networks business facing cord-cutting. Within the disclosed mix, advertising at $368 million and platforms at $192 million suggest the digital assets are a meaningful but not yet dominant growth engine; without segment-level growth rates, the key takeaway is that Versant is a scale business fighting for flat-to-low-single-digit growth, which caps multiple expansion and makes cash return the primary investment case.
Profitability is robust for a legacy media company. Q1 2026 net income was $286 million on $1.687 billion of revenue, a 16.95% net margin, with gross profit of $1.049 billion (62.18% gross margin) and operating income of $442 million (26.20% operating margin). However, margins are volatile quarter-to-quarter: Q4 2025 gross margin was just 39.38% and net margin 11.18%, while Q3 2025 net margin was a thin 4.81%, reflecting content-cost timing and restructuring noise around the spinoff. The trailing figures — 56.09% gross margin, 19.02% operating margin, and 13.91% net margin — are healthy relative to the advertising/agency peer group, but the quarter-to-quarter swings mean investors should focus on the trailing trend rather than any single print.
The balance sheet is a genuine strength: debt-to-equity is just 0.0955, the current ratio is 4.02, and trailing free cash flow is $1.956 billion, which against a $6.50 billion market cap implies a free cash flow yield of roughly 30% — an extraordinary cash-generation profile. Q1 2026 operating cash flow was $585 million with capex of only $27 million, yielding $558 million of free cash flow, and the company retired $1.973 billion of debt in the quarter while ending with $1.193 billion of cash. ROE of 9.04% and ROA of 5.81% are modest but respectable given the asset base, and the low leverage means Versant can fund operations and bolt-on digital investments internally without external financing — a critical advantage as the core cable business shrinks.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.7B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-1.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
62.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is VSNT Overvalued?
Because Versant is profitable — Q1 2026 net income of $286 million and trailing EPS of $0.143 — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The trailing PE is 7.00x versus a forward PE of 5.88x, a roughly 16% compression that implies the market expects earnings growth; however, the forward figure is anchored to an estimated EPS average of $12.94, which is wildly inconsistent with the $0.143 trailing EPS and the $1.99 quarterly diluted EPS, suggesting the analyst EPS estimates are on a different share-count or adjusted basis and should be treated with caution. The more reliable read is the trailing PE of 7.0x and EV/EBITDA of 3.30x, both of which scream deep-value territory.
Against the Communication Services / Advertising Agencies peer group, Versant trades at a steep discount on nearly every metric: PS of 0.97x, PB of 0.63x, and EV/Sales of 1.04x, versus sector norms that typically run 2-4x sales and 15-25x earnings for scaled media names. The 0.63x price-to-book means the market values the entire company at roughly 63 cents on each dollar of book equity, a discount that would only be justified by expectations of asset impairment or terminal decline. The counterargument is that a 30% free cash flow yield and 3.3x EV/EBITDA already price in substantial deterioration, so even modest stabilization in advertising or digital growth could drive meaningful multiple re-rating.
Historically, Versant's own valuation band has compressed dramatically: the PE ratio was 4.65x in Q1 2026, 9.00x in Q4 2025, and 20.75x in Q3 2025, while PS has drifted from 3.97x in Q3 2025 to 0.97x today. The stock is now near the bottom of its short public history on both earnings and sales multiples, which cuts two ways — it can signal a genuine value opportunity in a cash-rich spinoff, or it can reflect the market's rational assessment that the cable networks business faces structural erosion. With PB at 0.63x and PEG at -0.22 (negative due to declining earnings), the valuation is undemanding but not obviously mispriced without a visible catalyst for revenue stabilization.
PE
7.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 4x~9x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Versant's financial risks are primarily operational rather than balance-sheet related. Revenue declined 1.11% year-over-year in Q1 2026 to $1.687 billion, and the multi-quarter trend shows a mature business fighting for flat growth. While debt-to-equity is a very low 0.0955 and the current ratio is 4.02, the company's profitability is volatile: net margin ranged from 4.81% in Q3 2025 to 16.95% in Q1 2026, and gross margin swung from 39.38% to 62.18% over the same period. This volatility reflects content-cost timing and spinoff-related restructuring, making it difficult to forecast earnings and raising the risk that any single quarter could disappoint. Additionally, the advertising segment ($368 million) and platforms segment ($192 million) represent a revenue mix that is heavily dependent on the health of the cable television ecosystem, which faces secular cord-cutting pressure.
Market and competitive risks are significant given the structural decline of cable networks. Versant trades at a trailing PE of 7.0x and a price-to-book of 0.63x, which could reflect rational market assessment of terminal decline rather than mispricing. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 20.34 percentage points over six months, and its 1-month relative strength of -9.43 indicates persistent selling pressure. With no beta provided, volatility must be inferred from the -32.41% max drawdown, which implies materially above-market risk. The recent news highlighting Comcast's spinoff and its 5.5% dividend underscores that investors may prefer the parent's diversified cash flows over Versant's pure-play cable exposure. Competitive threats include streaming platforms eroding traditional cable viewership and advertising dollars shifting to digital giants, which could accelerate revenue declines.
The worst-case scenario would involve a combination of accelerating cord-cutting, advertising recession, and failed digital monetization, leading to revenue declines exceeding 5% annually and margin compression. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $27.17, representing a 23% decline from the current $35.18. If the market begins to price terminal decline, the price-to-book multiple of 0.63x could compress further toward 0.4-0.5x, implying a downside to the low-$20s. The analyst low target of $39.00 is above the current price, but in a severe downturn, analysts would likely revise targets downward. From the current price, an investor could lose 23% to the 52-week low, and in a more extreme scenario, losses could reach 35-40% if the company's cash flows deteriorate faster than expected.
FAQ
The most severe risk is structural: cord-cutting is eroding the cable networks business, and revenue declined 1.11% year-over-year in Q1 2026. Second, margin volatility is high, with net margin ranging from 4.81% to 16.95% over recent quarters, making earnings unpredictable. Third, the stock is in a technical downtrend, with a max drawdown of -32.41% and a 52-week low of $27.17 that is 23% below the current price; a breakdown could trigger further selling. Fourth, competitive threats from streaming platforms and digital advertising giants could accelerate revenue declines. Finally, thin analyst coverage (only six analysts) and no formal consensus rating mean less efficient price discovery and higher volatility.
Our 12-month forecast assigns a 50% probability to a base case target range of $42-$48, implying roughly 20-36% upside, assuming revenue stabilizes and the stock re-rates toward the analyst average of $45.67. The bull case (25% probability) targets $55-$60, driven by digital growth and multiple expansion, while the bear case (25% probability) targets $27-$32, reflecting accelerating cord-cutting and a retest of the 52-week low. The most likely scenario is the base case, which assumes revenue declines moderate to less than 1% and free cash flow remains above $1.5 billion. The key assumption is that the market begins to value Versant on its cash flow yield rather than its declining earnings.
VSNT appears undervalued on nearly every metric. The trailing PE of 7.0x is less than half the sector norm of 15-25x, the price-to-book of 0.63x means the market values the company at 63 cents per dollar of book equity, and the EV/EBITDA of 3.30x is well below typical media multiples of 8-12x. The free cash flow yield of roughly 30% is exceptionally high, suggesting the market is pricing in a high probability of terminal decline. Compared to its own history, the PE has compressed from 20.75x in Q3 2025 to 7.0x now, and PS has fallen from 3.97x to 0.97x. The market is clearly expecting continued revenue erosion, but if the company can stabilize its top line, the multiple could re-rate significantly.
VSNT is a high-risk, high-reward value proposition that is not suitable for all investors. The stock trades at 7.0x trailing earnings and 3.30x EV/EBITDA, with a 30% free cash flow yield, and analysts see 29.8% upside to their average target of $45.67. However, revenue declined 1.11% year-over-year in Q1 2026, and the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 20 percentage points in six months, indicating structural headwinds. The biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low of $27.17, which would represent a 23% loss from the current price. For patient value investors with a 2-3 year horizon and tolerance for volatility, the risk/reward is favorable, but for those seeking growth or income, it is not a good buy.
VSNT is better suited for long-term value investors than short-term traders. The stock has no dividend, a high implied volatility (max drawdown of -32.41%), and a recent spinoff listing that creates uncertainty and thin coverage. The investment thesis relies on multiple expansion and cash flow recognition, which typically takes 12-24 months to play out. Short-term trading is risky given the downtrend and relative underperformance, with the stock down 10.39% in the past month. A minimum holding period of 2-3 years is advisable to allow for potential revenue stabilization and valuation re-rating. However, position sizing should be conservative due to the structural risks facing the cable industry.