AMD

AMD

$551.63

+2.65%
Jun 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is a leading semiconductor company that designs and sells central processing units (CPUs), graphics processing units (GPUs), and adaptive computing solutions for a diverse range of markets including data centers, PCs, gaming, embedded systems, and automotive. The company has successfully transformed from a perennial underdog into a formidable competitor and market leader in high-performance computing, particularly challenging Intel in CPUs and Nvidia in the burgeoning AI accelerator space. The current investor narrative is overwhelmingly dominated by AMD's execution and growth within the AI hardware boom, with its stock experiencing a meteoric rise as it capitalizes on demand for its MI series data center GPUs, though recent news highlights intensifying competition as Nvidia expands into CPUs and questions arise about the sustainability of the broader AI chip rally.

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AMD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $551.63
Average Target $551.63
High Target $634.3744999999999
Low Target $468.8855

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on AMD's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $717.12 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$717.12

16 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

16

covering this stock

Price Range

$441 - $717

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (25%)
Hold
8 (50%)
Sell
4 (25%)

Analyst coverage for AMD is substantial, with 16 firms providing estimates. The consensus sentiment is bullish, anchored by expectations for significant earnings growth, with an average EPS estimate of $29.92 for the forward period. The average revenue estimate is $171.4 billion, indicating analysts project massive top-line expansion. The target price range is wide, reflecting high uncertainty and differing views on AMD's AI monetization; the low revenue estimate is $145.5 billion and the high is $199.1 billion, while the low EPS estimate is $24.04 and the high is $36.21. A wide target spread like this signals low conviction and high debate regarding the company's ultimate market share and profitability in the AI era. Recent institutional ratings from firms like Evercore ISI, Mizuho, and Wedbush maintain 'Outperform' or 'Buy' ratings, while others like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs hold 'Equal Weight' or 'Neutral' stances, suggesting a split between growth-focused and valuation-sensitive analysts. The lack of recent downgrades amidst the massive rally indicates Wall Street is generally supportive of the narrative but cautious on the pace of gains.

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AMD Technical Analysis

AMD is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, evidenced by a staggering 323.83% one-year price change. The stock closed at $537.37, which positions it near the top of its 52-week range of $126.82 to $558.37, trading at approximately 96% of that range. This proximity to all-time highs signals strong momentum but also raises concerns about potential overextension and vulnerability to a sharp correction. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, with the stock up 29.78% over the past month and 166.91% over the past three months, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's gains of 0.74% and 15.14% over the same periods, respectively. This acceleration suggests the rally is being fueled by intense, concentrated buying pressure, likely tied to AI optimism. Key technical levels are clear: immediate resistance is at the 52-week high of $558.37, while major support lies at the 52-week low of $126.82, though more recent support has formed around the $450 level following the late-May surge. A breakout above $558 could trigger another leg higher, while a breakdown below $450 might signal a deeper consolidation. The stock's beta of 2.492 indicates it is approximately 150% more volatile than the broader market, a critical factor for risk management given its explosive moves.

Beta

2.49

2.49x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-27.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$127-$563

Price range past year

Annual Return

+330.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodAMD ReturnS&P 500
1m+18.0%-0.2%
3m+168.6%+14.0%
6m+156.5%+7.8%
1y+330.2%+25.3%
ytd+146.8%+9.2%

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AMD Fundamental Analysis

AMD's revenue trajectory is robust and accelerating, driven by its data center segment. For Q4 2025, revenue reached $10.27 billion, representing a 34.1% year-over-year growth. This marks a significant sequential acceleration from Q3's $9.25 billion and Q2's $7.69 billion, indicating the company is successfully capitalizing on the AI investment cycle. Segment data shows the Data Center segment contributed $5.38 billion, the Client and Gaming segment $3.94 billion, and Embedded $950 million for the latest period, highlighting Data Center as the primary growth engine. Profitability has improved markedly, with Q4 2025 net income reaching $1.51 billion and gross margin expanding to 54.3%. This compares favorably to Q4 2024's net income of $482 million and a gross margin of 50.7%, demonstrating significant operating leverage. The net margin for the latest quarter was 14.7%, a substantial improvement that reflects both revenue growth and cost discipline. The balance sheet is strong, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.071 and a healthy current ratio of 2.85, indicating ample liquidity. The company generated $6.74 billion in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing significant internal funding for growth initiatives like R&D and capacity expansion without reliance on excessive external financing. Return on equity, while improving, remains modest at 6.88%, suggesting there is room for further efficiency gains as the business scales.

Quarterly Revenue

$10.3B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.34%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.54%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$6.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Client and Gaming
Data Center
Embedded

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Valuation Analysis: Is AMD Overvalued?

Given AMD's positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is exceptionally high at 80.5x, while the forward PE is 41.0x based on estimated EPS. This wide gap implies the market is pricing in a near-doubling of earnings, reflecting very high growth expectations embedded in the current stock price. Compared to the broader semiconductor industry, AMD trades at a significant premium. Its forward PE of 41.0x is well above typical sector averages (often in the 20x-30x range), and its Price-to-Sales ratio of 10.1x and EV/Sales of 21.9x are also elevated. This premium is justified by investors based on AMD's superior growth profile and strategic position in AI, but it also increases vulnerability if growth disappoints. Historically, AMD's current trailing PE of 80.5x is near the upper end of its own range over recent years, which has seen wide swings. For instance, its PE ratio was 57.98x at the end of Q4 2025 and soared above 100x in late 2024. Trading near historical highs suggests the market is pricing in near-perfect execution of its AI roadmap, leaving little room for error and increasing the risk of multiple contraction if sentiment shifts.

PE

80.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -284x~1700x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

47.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple