APA Corporation
APA
$33.42
+0.29%
APA Corporation is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company focused on developing and producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It operates as a mid-sized international E&P with a diversified portfolio across four core segments: the U.S., Egypt, the North Sea, and Suriname. The current investor narrative is heavily influenced by volatile oil prices driven by geopolitical events, such as the recent de-escalation in the Middle East that removed a risk premium and pressured crude prices, alongside company-specific catalysts like its strategic acquisition in Alaska aimed at accelerating development and lowering costs on its North Slope assets. This positions APA as a stock sensitive to both macro commodity cycles and its ability to execute on operational efficiencies and growth projects.…
APA
APA Corporation
$33.42
Related headlines
APA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on APA Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $43.45 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$43.45
7 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
7
covering this stock
Price Range
$27 - $43
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for APA is limited, with only 7 analysts providing estimates, indicating it is a mid-cap energy name with less institutional focus. The consensus sentiment appears neutral to cautious, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings including 'Neutral' from Citigroup, 'Underweight' from Morgan Stanley, and a downgrade from 'Buy' to 'Hold' by Truist Securities in March 2026. The average target price implied by the estimated EPS of $4.84 and the forward P/E of 7.67x suggests a target near $37.10, offering approximately 12% upside from the current $33.03 price. The target range is wide, with a low EPS estimate of $4.26 and a high of $5.44, reflecting significant uncertainty around future commodity prices and the company's execution on its Alaska and Suriname projects. The wide dispersion in targets and the prevalence of Hold/Neutral/Underperform ratings signal low conviction and high uncertainty among analysts, typical for a commodity-linked E&P stock in a volatile price environment.
APA Technical Analysis
The stock is in a pronounced downtrend from its recent highs, having fallen 19.26% over the past month and 15.55% over the past three months, sharply contrasting with a strong 62.63% gain over the past year. Currently trading at $33.03, the price sits approximately 28% above its 52-week low of $17.74 but 28% below its 52-week high of $45.66, indicating it is in the lower-middle portion of its annual range and has surrendered a significant portion of its prior gains, suggesting a correction from overbought levels. The recent momentum is decisively negative, with the 1-month decline of 19.26% vastly underperforming the S&P 500's 0.74% gain, indicating severe sector-specific or company-specific selling pressure diverging from the broader market. The stock's beta of 0.327 suggests it has been significantly less volatile than the market over the measured period, though recent price action indicates idiosyncratic volatility linked to oil price swings. Key technical support is the 52-week low area near $17.74, while immediate resistance is the recent high near $45.66; a sustained break below the $30 level could signal a deeper retracement towards the 52-week low, whereas reclaiming the $40 level would be necessary to suggest the downtrend has stabilized.
Beta
0.33
0.33x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$18-$46
Price range past year
Annual Return
+87.8%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | APA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -10.9% | -2.2% |
| 3m | -24.7% | +15.8% |
| 6m | +38.2% | +6.4% |
| 1y | +87.8% | +20.9% |
| ytd | +31.8% | +7.7% |
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APA Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown volatility tied to commodity prices, with the most recent quarterly figure at $1.991 billion, representing a significant 26.6% year-over-year decline from the prior-year quarter. Sequentially, revenue has declined from $2.636 billion in Q1 2025, indicating a decelerating trend over the past three quarters as oil and gas prices have moderated. The company remains profitable, posting net income of $279 million in Q4 2025, though this is down from $603 million in Q2 2025, reflecting margin compression. The gross margin for the latest quarter was 39.23%, which has held relatively stable compared to the 38.24% in Q1 2025, but operating leverage has decreased with the revenue drop. The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, and the company maintains solid liquidity with a current ratio of 0.82. Crucially, APA generated robust trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $1.779 billion, providing ample capacity for shareholder returns and capital expenditures, supported by a return on equity of 23.5%, indicating efficient use of equity capital despite the cyclical downturn in earnings.
Quarterly Revenue
$2.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.26%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.39%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$1.8B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is APA Overvalued?
Given positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio. The trailing P/E stands at 6.13x, while the forward P/E is 7.67x, indicating the market expects a modest earnings decline or stabilization. Compared to sector averages, APA trades at a discount; for instance, its trailing P/E of 6.13x is well below typical integrated oil & gas peers which often trade in the low-teens, reflecting its pure-play E&P risk profile and recent earnings volatility. Historically, the stock's own trailing P/E has fluctuated significantly, from a low near 1.55x in late 2023 to highs above 20x in early 2024; the current 6.13x is near the lower end of its recent historical range, suggesting the market is pricing in a cyclical trough or heightened risk, potentially offering a value opportunity if commodity prices stabilize or the company's operational execution improves.
PE
6.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -24x~20x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
2.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple

