BWA

BorgWarner

$63.21

-0.74%
Jul 28, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
BorgWarner is a tier-one automotive supplier specializing in turbo and thermal management technologies, drivetrain systems, powerdrive systems, and battery/charging solutions for OEMs. As a key player in the auto parts industry, it derives over 80% of revenue from combustion vehicle products while strategically pivoting toward electric vehicle components. The current investor narrative centers on its transition to an EV-centric supplier, with recent attention on margin recovery and the pace of e-product adoption amid mixed quarterly results.

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BWA 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $63.21
Average Target $63.21
High Target $72.69
Low Target $53.73

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on BorgWarner's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $76.87 and implied upside of +21.6% versus the current price.

Average Target

$76.87

0 analysts

Implied Upside

+21.6%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

covering this stock

Price Range

$48 - $95

Analyst target range

BorgWarner is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean score 1.93 on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy). The average target price is $76.87, implying approximately 19.4% upside from the current price of $64.39. The distribution leans bullish, with recent upgrades from UBS (Neutral to Buy) and consistent Overweight ratings from Barclays, Wells Fargo, and JP Morgan. The target range spans from a low of $48.00 to a high of $95.00. The high target of $95 assumes successful execution of the EV transition and margin expansion, while the low target of $48 reflects risks of slower EV adoption or margin compression. The wide spread ($47) indicates high uncertainty about the pace and profitability of the company's transformation. Recent institutional actions show a mix of upgrades and reiterations, with no downgrades, supporting a generally positive sentiment. The tight clustering of recent ratings (mostly Overweight/Buy) suggests analysts have conviction in the turnaround story, though the wide target range tempers that optimism.

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Bulls vs Bears: BWA Investment Factors

BorgWarner presents a classic value-versus-growth debate. The bull case rests on a compelling forward valuation (11.1x P/E, 0.68x P/S), strong free cash flow, and analyst consensus expecting 19% upside. The bear case highlights stagnant revenue, a rich trailing multiple, and heavy reliance on legacy ICE products. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls due to the deep discount in forward earnings and margin recovery trajectory. The single most important tension is whether the expected earnings rebound materializes: if EPS grows to the analyst estimate of $8.22, the stock is cheap; if not, the trailing multiple could compress sharply.

Bullish

  • Forward P/E discount to industry: BorgWarner's forward P/E of 11.1x is a 26% discount to the auto parts industry average of 15x, suggesting the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery. If earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued.
  • Strong free cash flow generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $1.225 billion, providing ample liquidity for reinvestment in the EV transition and shareholder returns. This cash generation supports the balance sheet and reduces financial risk.
  • Analyst consensus Buy with 19% upside: The average analyst target of $76.87 implies 19.4% upside from the current price of $64.39. With 15 analysts and a mean recommendation of 1.93 (Buy), sentiment is broadly positive.
  • Margin recovery from Q4 2025 trough: Net margin improved from -7.3% in Q4 2025 (due to impairment charges) to 6.8% in Q1 2026, while gross margin expanded to 19.2% from 17.6% a year earlier. This demonstrates operational leverage and cost control.

Bearish

  • Near-zero revenue growth: Q1 2026 revenue of $3.533 billion grew only 0.5% year-over-year, and the past four quarters have shown stagnation around $3.5-3.6 billion. This raises doubts about the pace of the EV transition and underlying demand.
  • Trailing P/E at 135% premium to peers: The trailing P/E of 35.2x is more than double the industry average of 15x, reflecting optimistic expectations that may not materialize. Any earnings miss could trigger multiple compression.
  • Dependence on legacy combustion business: Over 80% of revenue still comes from combustion vehicle products, exposing the company to declining ICE demand. The e-business segment contributed only $464 million in Q1 2026, a small fraction of total sales.
  • Low ROE and tight quarterly cash flow: ROE of 5.1% is low for the sector, and Q1 2026 free cash flow was only $9 million after $143 million in capex. This suggests near-term cash generation is strained despite the healthy TTM figure.

BWA Technical Analysis

BorgWarner is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +78.7%. The current price of $64.39 sits at 81.7% of its 52-week range ($34.27–$78.82), indicating the stock is closer to its highs but not overextended. This positioning suggests bullish momentum remains intact, though the stock has pulled back from its June 2026 peak of $77.03, reflecting some profit-taking. Over the last three months, the stock gained 14.4%, while the one-month change is -5.6%, showing a short-term deceleration. This divergence from the longer-term uptrend could signal a temporary pullback or consolidation phase, especially as the 1-month relative strength versus SPY is -6.4%. The RSI is not provided, but the volume of 1.41 million shares is moderate. The 52-week high of $78.82 acts as key resistance; a breakout above that level would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially target the $95 high analyst target. Support lies near the 52-week low of $34.27, but more immediate support is around $61–$62, the recent July lows. With a beta of 1.08, BorgWarner's volatility is roughly in line with the market, meaning it offers no significant amplification of market moves.

Beta

1.08

1.08x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-24.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$34-$79

Price range past year

Annual Return

+76.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodBWA ReturnS&P 500
1m-7.2%+1.6%
3m+16.6%+4.1%
6m+29.2%+6.8%
1y+76.7%+16.3%
ytd+35.5%+8.6%

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BWA Fundamental Analysis

Revenue in Q1 2026 was $3.533 billion, up just 0.5% year-over-year, indicating near-stagnant top-line growth. Over the past four quarters, revenue has hovered around $3.53–$3.64 billion, showing a deceleration from the 3.4% YoY growth seen in Q2 2025. The Air Management segment contributed $1.974 billion, Drivetrain $1.196 billion, and e-Propulsion & Drivetrain $464 million, with the e-business still a small but growing portion. The lack of robust growth raises questions about the pace of the EV transition and underlying demand. Net income in Q1 2026 was $242 million, with a net margin of 6.8%, a significant improvement from the -7.3% net margin in Q4 2025 (which included impairment charges). Gross margin was 19.2% in Q1 2026, up from 17.6% in Q2 2025, suggesting some margin expansion. However, operating margin of 9.9% remains below the 11.1% level seen in Q4 2025 (excluding charges), indicating ongoing cost pressures. The company is profitable, but margins are still compressed relative to historical levels. BorgWarner has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77, which is moderate, and a current ratio of 2.07, indicating solid liquidity. Free cash flow (TTM) was $1.225 billion, providing ample cash for reinvestment and shareholder returns. ROE of 5.1% is relatively low, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of the auto parts industry. The company generated $152 million in operating cash flow in Q1 2026, but capital expenditures of $143 million consumed most of that, leaving free cash flow of only $9 million for the quarter. This suggests that while the balance sheet is healthy, near-term cash generation is tight.

Quarterly Revenue

$3.5B

2026-03

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.5%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

19.2%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$1.2B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Air Management
Drivetrain
e-Propulsion & Drivetrain

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Valuation Analysis: Is BWA Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 35.2x, while the forward P/E is 11.1x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. The wide gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests that the market is pricing in a sharp earnings recovery, likely from the depressed Q4 2025 results. Compared to the auto parts industry average P/E of roughly 15x (based on sector data), BorgWarner's trailing P/E of 35.2x represents a 135% premium, but its forward P/E of 11.1x is a 26% discount to the industry average. This dichotomy reflects the market's expectation that current earnings are temporarily depressed and will rebound. Historically, BorgWarner's trailing P/E has ranged from 5.9x (Q2 2022) to 48.1x (Q3 2023). The current 35.2x is near the higher end of its historical band, suggesting that the market is pricing in optimistic expectations. However, the forward P/E of 11.1x is near the lower end of its historical range, indicating that if earnings materialize as expected, the stock could be undervalued. The P/S ratio of 0.68x is below the industry average of around 0.9x, further supporting a value case.

PE

35.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range 6x~18x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

8.7x

Enterprise Value Multiple

Investment Risk Disclosure

Financial & Operational Risks: BorgWarner's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.77 is moderate, but the company's ability to service debt depends on sustained profitability. The Q1 2026 free cash flow of only $9 million, despite $1.225 billion TTM, highlights quarterly volatility in cash generation. Net margin of 6.8% is still below historical levels, and the low ROE of 5.1% suggests capital efficiency is weak. Revenue concentration in combustion products (over 80%) creates structural risk as the industry shifts to EVs, while the e-business segment remains small at $464 million quarterly revenue.

Market & Competitive Risks: The stock's beta of 1.08 indicates market-like volatility, but the trailing P/E of 35.2x leaves it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints. The wide analyst target range ($48-$95) reflects high uncertainty about the EV transition pace. Competitive pressures from both traditional suppliers and new EV entrants could squeeze margins. Macro risks include potential recession reducing auto demand, and the recent pullback from the 52-week high of $78.82 suggests profit-taking after a strong run.

Worst-Case Scenario: If the EV transition stalls, margins compress further, and revenue growth turns negative, the stock could fall to the analyst low target of $48. This represents a 25% decline from the current price of $64.39. The 52-week low of $34.27 would imply a 47% drop, but that level was reached during a period of impairment charges and market panic. A more realistic worst case is a decline to $48, supported by the low analyst target and historical support levels.