CAH

Cardinal Health

$233.77

-1.43%
Jul 9, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Cardinal Health is one of the three dominant pharmaceutical wholesalers in the US, sourcing and distributing branded, generic, and specialty pharmaceutical products to pharmacies, hospitals, and healthcare providers, while also supplying medical-surgical products. As a critical linchpin in the healthcare supply chain, Cardinal, alongside Cencora and McKesson, controls over 90% of the US pharmaceutical wholesale market, giving it significant scale and bargaining power. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain revenue growth amid a recovering pharmaceutical demand environment, while managing margin pressures from generic drug pricing and the ongoing shift toward higher-margin specialty pharmaceuticals. Recent attention has been driven by a strong earnings beat and raised full-year guidance, though a revenue miss in the latest quarter has introduced some near-term uncertainty.

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CAH 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $233.77
Average Target $233.77
High Target $268.84
Low Target $198.70

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Cardinal Health's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $303.90 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$303.90

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$187 - $304

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Cardinal Health is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The distribution shows 4 Overweight/Buy ratings, 1 Neutral, and 1 Outperform, with no Sell ratings. The average analyst target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the estimated EPS average of $17.92 and a forward P/E of 19.9x, the implied target is approximately $356.60, representing 49% upside from the current price of $238.94. This suggests strong bullish conviction among analysts. The estimated EPS range is $17.21 to $18.45, implying a target price range of $342 to $367. The high target assumes continued revenue growth acceleration and margin expansion, while the low target may price in potential headwinds from generic drug pricing pressure or slower pharmaceutical demand. Recent ratings actions have been positive, with Citigroup upgrading from Neutral to Buy in January 2026, and Barclays, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley maintaining Overweight ratings. The tight EPS range (7% spread) indicates relatively high analyst confidence in near-term earnings, though the wide implied upside suggests the market may not fully reflect the growth potential.

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CAH Technical Analysis

Cardinal Health is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 47.5% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 19.1% gain. The current price of $238.94 sits at 99.2% of its 52-week range (low $137.75, high $240.93), indicating the stock is trading near its highs and reflecting strong bullish momentum. This positioning near the top of the range suggests the market is pricing in continued positive fundamentals, though it also raises the risk of a pullback if catalysts fail to materialize. Short-term momentum is accelerating sharply, with the stock gaining 22.6% in the past month and 11.6% over the past three months, compared to the S&P 500's -1.25% and 13.56% returns, respectively. The one-month relative strength of 23.86% versus the market underscores a powerful near-term rally that has diverged from the broader market's recent weakness, potentially signaling a flight to defensive healthcare names. However, the three-month relative strength is slightly negative at -1.93%, suggesting the longer-term trend may be more measured. Key technical support lies at the 52-week low of $137.75, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $240.93. A breakout above $240.93 would signal a continuation of the uptrend and likely attract further buying, while a breakdown below recent support near $220 could indicate a correction. With a beta of 0.49, Cardinal Health is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a lower-risk holding that may appeal to conservative investors.

Beta

0.49

0.49x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-20.6%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$138-$243

Price range past year

Annual Return

+42.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodCAH ReturnS&P 500
1m+9.9%+2.0%
3m+8.5%+10.6%
6m+16.2%+8.3%
1y+42.3%+20.4%
ytd+13.6%+10.2%

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CAH Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been robust, with the most recent quarter (Q2 FY2026, ending Dec 2025) reporting $65.44 billion, up 18.4% year-over-year from $55.26 billion in the prior-year quarter. This marks an acceleration from the 9.1% growth seen in Q1 FY2026 and the 9.6% growth in Q4 FY2025, driven by strong performance in the Pharmaceutical segment ($60.67 billion in the quarter) and contributions from acquisitions. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue growth re-accelerating after a period of moderation, supported by increased pharmaceutical demand and specialty drug volumes. Profitability remains thin but improving, with net income of $471 million in Q2 FY2026, up from $400 million a year ago, and gross margin of 3.38%, slightly below the 3.51% in the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was 1.08%, up from 0.99% in Q2 FY2025, reflecting better cost control and operating leverage. While margins are low, this is typical for the pharmaceutical distribution industry, where high volumes compensate for razor-thin margins. The company is profitable, with a trailing net margin of 0.70%, and the trajectory shows gradual expansion. The balance sheet is a concern due to negative equity, with a debt-to-equity ratio of -3.36, stemming from share buybacks and accumulated deficits. However, free cash flow generation is strong, with TTM free cash flow of $5.51 billion, providing ample liquidity for debt service and investments. The current ratio of 0.94 indicates slightly tight short-term liquidity, but operating cash flow of $686 million in Q2 FY2026 covers capital expenditures of $131 million comfortably.

Quarterly Revenue

$65.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+18.42%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

3.38%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$5.5B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

GMPD
Other Operating Segment
Pharmaceutical Member

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Valuation Analysis: Is CAH Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the trailing P/E ratio of 25.9x is the primary valuation metric. The forward P/E of 19.9x implies that earnings are expected to grow significantly, with the gap between trailing and forward multiples suggesting the market anticipates a 30% earnings increase over the next year. This forward P/E is below the 5-year historical average of around 22x, indicating potential undervaluation relative to its own history. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22x (based on Medical Distribution peers), Cardinal Health trades at a 18% premium on a trailing basis but a 10% discount on a forward basis. The premium on trailing earnings may reflect the company's dominant market position and strong cash flow generation, while the forward discount suggests the market is pricing in conservative growth expectations relative to peers. Historically, the stock's trailing P/E has ranged from 14x to 42x over the past five years, and the current 25.9x is near the middle of that range. This suggests the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history, not excessively overbought or undervalued. The PEG ratio of 0.30 indicates that the stock is cheap relative to its earnings growth rate, supporting a bullish valuation case.

PE

25.9x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -450x~73x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple