Chord Energy Corporation
CHRD
$127.60
-5.72%
Chord Energy Corporation is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas, with its primary operations in the Williston Basin and non-operated interests in the Marcellus Shale. The company operates as a pure-play, non-operated producer in a consolidating U.S. shale sector, leveraging its scale and operational efficiency in core basins. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's sensitivity to volatile oil prices, as evidenced by a sharp price decline in mid-April 2026 following news of de-escalation in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which removed a geopolitical risk premium from the crude market.…
CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation
$127.60
CHRD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Chord Energy Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $165.88 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$165.88
2 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
2
covering this stock
Price Range
$102 - $166
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for CHRD is limited, with only two analysts providing estimates, indicating this is likely a smaller or less-followed mid-cap name within the energy sector. The consensus leans bullish among the broader institutional ratings, with recent actions including an upgrade to Overweight from Morgan Stanley and maintained Buy or Overweight ratings from firms like Truist, Wells Fargo, and Piper Sandler, though Citigroup maintains a Neutral stance. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $4.81 billion, with a wide range from $4.37 billion to $5.21 billion, and an average EPS estimate of $14.53, ranging from $12.83 to $16.13, highlighting significant uncertainty and variability in forecasts for this commodity-driven business. The wide target range for both revenue and EPS signals high uncertainty typical of E&P stocks, where outcomes are heavily dependent on unpredictable oil and gas prices, and the low number of covering analysts can lead to higher volatility and less efficient price discovery compared to more widely covered peers.
CHRD Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong, sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +32.18%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +22.86% gain. As of the latest close at $135.34, the price is trading approximately 68% of the way up from its 52-week low of $84.25 toward its high of $151.95, indicating it is in the upper half of its annual range but has retreated from recent peaks, suggesting potential consolidation after a powerful rally. Recent momentum shows a divergence, with the stock down -4.71% over the past month against a flat S&P 500, indicating short-term weakness and profit-taking, while the 3-month gain of +9.63% still shows positive intermediate-term momentum, albeit lagging the broader market's +12.0% return over the same period. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $84.25, with more immediate support likely near recent lows around $130, while resistance is clearly defined at the 52-week high of $151.95; a breakout above this level would signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a sustained break below the $130 level could indicate a deeper correction. The stock's beta of 0.357 indicates it has been significantly less volatile than the broader market over the measured period, which is atypical for an E&P company and may reflect its specific operational profile or a period of reduced commodity price volatility.
Beta
0.36
0.36x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-25.5%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$84-$152
Price range past year
Annual Return
+20.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CHRD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -14.0% | +2.1% |
| 3m | +0.4% | +12.5% |
| 6m | +36.1% | +12.4% |
| 1y | +20.3% | +26.4% |
| ytd | +34.8% | +10.7% |
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CHRD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been volatile, reflecting the inherent commodity price sensitivity of the business, with the most recent quarterly revenue for Q4 2025 at $1.17 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of -19.61% from the $1.45 billion reported in Q4 2024. Segment data shows Oil Production generated $1.71 billion, Purchased Oil Sales $624 million, and Purchased Gas Sales $14 million, indicating the core E&P operations are the primary revenue driver, though the sequential quarterly trend from Q1 to Q4 2025 shows significant fluctuation in both top-line and profitability. Profitability is inconsistent, with Q4 2025 net income of $84.4 million on a gross margin of 10.37%, a sharp contrast to the net loss of -$389.9 million in Q2 2025; the trailing twelve-month (TTM) net margin is a thin 0.91%, and the operating margin from the latest quarter was 7.64%, highlighting the cyclical and margin-compressed nature of the business amid shifting oil prices. The balance sheet appears conservatively leveraged with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.186, and the company generated substantial TTM free cash flow of $713.5 million, yielding a strong FCF margin; however, the current ratio of 1.06 suggests adequate but not robust short-term liquidity, and the return on equity (ROE) of 0.55% is minimal, indicating inefficient generation of profits from shareholder equity in the current environment.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.19%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.10%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$713497000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CHRD Overvalued?
Given the company's positive but minimal net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the trailing Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio, which stands at an elevated 120.54x, while the forward P/E is a much lower 8.57x. This massive gap implies the market expects a dramatic recovery in earnings over the next twelve months, with analyst consensus EPS estimates of $14.53 pointing to significant profit normalization. Compared to sector averages, Chord Energy trades at a discount on a Price-to-Sales basis, with a PS ratio of 1.10, and a deep discount on a Price-to-Book basis, with a PB ratio of 0.66, suggesting the market is valuing its assets conservatively relative to its equity. Historically, the stock's current P/E of 120.54x is near the extreme high end of its own historical range observed in the provided data, which has seen P/E ratios fluctuate from negative figures to as high as 120x; this elevated multiple reflects depressed trailing earnings rather than excessive optimism, while its PB ratio of 0.66 is below its historical median, indicating the stock is trading at a discount to its book value despite the recent price appreciation.
PE
120.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range -7x~16x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
3.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple

