CNX Resources
CNX
$34.61
-0.26%
CNX Resources Corporation is an independent natural gas exploration and production company focused on the Appalachian Basin, primarily developing unconventional shale formations such as the Marcellus and Utica shales, along with coalbed methane properties. As a low-cost operator with a significant acreage position in one of the most prolific gas basins in the U.S., CNX distinguishes itself through its integrated midstream and technology capabilities. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to sustain robust free cash flow generation amid volatile natural gas prices, with attention on its shareholder return strategy and progress in reducing debt. Recent quarterly results showed a sharp revenue increase of 28.2% year-over-year, driven by higher production and realized prices, but the stock has faced headwinds from declining gas prices and a cautious analyst outlook.…
CNX
CNX Resources
$34.61
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CNX 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on CNX Resources's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $37.64 and implied upside of +8.7% versus the current price.
Average Target
$37.64
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+8.7%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$32 - $48
Analyst target range
CNX is covered by 11 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' (mean score 3.08 on a 1-5 scale where 1 is strong buy). The average target price is $38.45, implying 15.6% upside from the current price of $33.25. The distribution shows 2 buys, 5 holds, and 4 sells, indicating a cautious stance. Recent ratings changes include Truist Securities upgrading from Sell to Hold on July 15, 2026, while Morgan Stanley and Barclays maintain Underweight ratings. The target range spans from $32.00 (low) to $49.00 (high). The high target of $49.00 assumes a recovery in natural gas prices and successful execution of the company's cost reduction initiatives, while the low target of $32.00 reflects downside risk from prolonged low gas prices and potential margin compression. The wide spread of $17.00 between low and high targets signals high uncertainty about the company's future performance. The consensus leans neutral to bearish, with a significant number of underweight ratings, suggesting that analysts see limited near-term catalysts.
Bulls vs Bears: CNX Investment Factors
CNX presents a mixed picture: strong free cash flow, low valuation, and high margins are bullish, but declining natural gas prices, cautious analyst sentiment, and no dividend are bearish. The bull case rests on the stock being undervalued relative to its cash flow generation, while the bear case centers on commodity price risk and lack of near-term catalysts. The single most important tension is whether natural gas prices stabilize or recover; if they do, the low P/E could expand, but further declines could pressure earnings and the stock.
Bullish
- Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: CNX generated $557.4 million in trailing twelve-month free cash flow, providing ample capacity for debt reduction and share repurchases. This supports shareholder returns even in a volatile commodity environment.
- Low Valuation vs. Peers: The trailing P/E of 8.21x is a 45% discount to the oil & gas E&P industry average of ~15x, and the EV/EBITDA of 4.94x is near historical lows. This suggests the market is pricing in pessimistic assumptions that may be overly conservative.
- High Operating Margins: Operating margin of 60.0% in Q1 2026 is well above industry averages, reflecting CNX's low-cost structure in the Appalachian Basin. This efficiency provides a buffer against declining natural gas prices.
- Revenue Growth Momentum: Q1 2026 revenue grew 28.2% year-over-year to $782.7 million, driven by higher production and realized prices. The Shale segment contributed $658.6 million, underscoring the core growth driver.
Bearish
- Declining Natural Gas Prices: Natural gas prices have been under pressure, and CNX's stock has declined 16.4% over the past three months. The company's revenue is highly sensitive to commodity prices, and a sustained downturn could compress margins.
- Cautious Analyst Consensus: With a consensus rating of 'hold' and a mean score of 3.08 (1=strong buy, 5=strong sell), analysts are neutral to bearish. 4 out of 11 analysts rate it a sell, and the average target of $38.45 implies only 15.6% upside.
- No Dividend and High Volatility: CNX does not pay a dividend, offering no income cushion. The stock's beta of 0.585 indicates lower volatility than the market, but the 1-year price change of -1.69% versus the S&P 500's +20.92% shows significant underperformance.
- Uneven Revenue Trajectory: While Q1 2026 revenue was strong, the prior three quarters showed a declining trend: $541M, $452M, and $538M. This volatility reflects commodity price swings and raises questions about earnings sustainability.
CNX Technical Analysis
CNX is in a sustained downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -1.69% compared to the S&P 500's +20.92%, reflecting significant underperformance. The current price of $33.25 sits at 76.2% of its 52-week range ($27.72 low to $43.62 high), indicating it is closer to the low end and suggesting bearish sentiment. This positioning near the lower bound of the range often signals a potential value opportunity, but the persistent downtrend warrants caution. Short-term momentum is decisively negative: the 1-month price change is +0.88%, while the 3-month change is -16.37%, showing that the recent bounce is weak relative to the deeper decline. The 1-month relative strength of +0.28% versus the S&P 500's +0.60% indicates that CNX is barely keeping pace, and the 3-month relative strength of -22.66% confirms a sharp divergence from the broader market. This divergence suggests the stock is experiencing a temporary pullback within a longer-term downtrend, with no clear reversal signal yet. The 52-week low of $27.72 provides key support, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $43.62. A breakdown below $27.72 would signal further downside, potentially testing the $25 area, while a breakout above $43.62 would indicate a trend reversal. With a beta of 0.585, CNX is less volatile than the market, meaning it tends to decline less than the S&P 500 during selloffs but also rallies less during upswings, which aligns with its current underperformance.
Beta
0.58
0.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$28-$44
Price range past year
Annual Return
+14.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CNX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +2.0% | -0.7% |
| 3m | -8.6% | +2.9% |
| 6m | -10.8% | +7.2% |
| 1y | +14.9% | +16.9% |
| ytd | -5.1% | +8.8% |
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CNX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has shown strong growth, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting $782.7 million, up 28.2% year-over-year from $610.6 million in Q1 2025. This growth is driven by the Shale segment, which contributed $658.6 million in natural gas revenue, while NGLs added $60.1 million. However, the multi-quarter trend shows volatility: Q2 2025 revenue was $541.3 million, Q3 2025 was $452.1 million, and Q4 2025 was $538.4 million, indicating a deceleration from the Q1 2025 peak. The growth trajectory is positive but uneven, reflecting natural gas price fluctuations. Profitability is robust: net income in Q1 2026 was $348.1 million, with a net margin of 44.5%, up from 36.4% in Q4 2025. Gross margin improved to 64.2% from 47.6% in the prior quarter, driven by higher realized prices and cost control. The company has been consistently profitable over the trailing twelve months, with TTM net income of $1.1 billion. Operating margin of 60.0% is well above industry averages for E&P companies, highlighting CNX's low-cost structure. The balance sheet is healthy: debt-to-equity is 0.57, and the current ratio is 0.44, indicating adequate liquidity. Free cash flow (FCF) was $107.6 million in Q1 2026, and TTM FCF is $557.4 million, providing ample coverage for capital expenditures and debt reduction. ROE is 14.6%, reflecting efficient capital use. The company does not pay dividends, instead focusing on share repurchases ($54.0 million in Q1 2026) and debt paydown.
Quarterly Revenue
$782673000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+28.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
64.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$557384000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CNX Overvalued?
Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 8.21x, while the forward P/E is 8.10x, indicating that the market expects earnings to remain stable. The narrow gap between trailing and forward multiples suggests limited growth expectations. Compared to the industry average P/E of approximately 15x for oil & gas E&P, CNX trades at a 45% discount, reflecting its lower growth profile and commodity price sensitivity. The P/S ratio of 2.43x is also below the sector median of 3.5x, reinforcing the discount. Historically, CNX's trailing P/E has ranged from 1.5x to 134x over the past five years, with the current 8.21x near the lower end of that range. This low multiple suggests the market is pricing in pessimistic assumptions about future earnings, possibly due to declining natural gas prices. The EV/EBITDA of 4.94x is also attractive relative to historical levels, indicating potential undervaluation if the company can maintain its cash flow generation.
PE
8.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 1x~43x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
4.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: CNX's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.57 is manageable, but the current ratio of 0.44 indicates potential liquidity constraints. The company's revenue is heavily dependent on natural gas prices, which are volatile and have caused uneven quarterly results—revenue swung from $610.6M in Q1 2025 to $452.1M in Q3 2025. While free cash flow is strong at $557.4M TTM, a sustained drop in gas prices could quickly erode profitability, as seen in Q1 2025 when net income was negative. The lack of dividend means investors rely solely on price appreciation, which is tied to commodity cycles.
Market & Competitive Risks: CNX trades at a 45% discount to the industry average P/E, which could be a value trap if earnings deteriorate further. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 22.6% over the past year, and its beta of 0.585 suggests it is less volatile but also less responsive to market rallies. Competitive risks include larger, more diversified E&P companies that can better withstand low gas prices. Regulatory headwinds related to methane emissions or drilling permits could also impact operations.
Worst-Case Scenario: If natural gas prices continue to decline and the company's revenue and earnings fall, the stock could drop to its 52-week low of $27.72, representing a 16.6% downside from the current price of $33.25. In a severe downturn, the stock could test $25, implying a 24.8% loss. The bear-case analyst target of $32.00 suggests a 3.8% downside, but the historical max drawdown of -24.92% indicates that larger losses are possible.