Carlisle Companies
CSL
$360.70
-2.52%
Carlisle Companies Inc. is a holding company that manufactures and sells single-ply roofing products, warranted systems, and building envelope solutions for the commercial building industry, operating through two segments: Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies. As a market leader in the commercial roofing sector, Carlisle is recognized for its premium EPDM, TPO, and PVC membrane products, with more than half of its revenue generated in the United States. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic portfolio management, including a reported buyout offer for Owens Corning, which has sparked speculation about potential M&A-driven growth, while also facing headwinds from a recent revenue decline and margin pressures in a cyclical construction market.…
CSL
Carlisle Companies
$360.70
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CSL Today?
Rating: Hold. The stock is fairly valued with a forward PE of 15.36x, but the declining revenue and margins warrant caution. Analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $412.14, implying 11.4% upside, but the bear case of continued demand weakness could limit gains.
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CSL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The stock's valuation is reasonable, but the declining revenue and margins pose risks. The forward PE suggests the market expects a recovery, which is not yet visible in the data. If revenue growth turns positive and margins stabilize, the stance would upgrade to bullish. Conversely, if the decline accelerates or the Owens Corning deal fails, it would downgrade to bearish.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Carlisle Companies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $412.14 and implied upside of +14.3% versus the current price.
Average Target
$412.14
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+14.3%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$340 - $475
Analyst target range
Carlisle has coverage from 7 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and a mean rating of 2.11 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $412.14, implying an upside of 11.4% from the current price of $370.04. The distribution includes 4 buy/outperform ratings, 2 hold ratings, and 1 sell rating, indicating a moderately bullish sentiment. The target price range spans from a low of $340.00 to a high of $475.00, with the low implying a downside of -8.1% and the high implying an upside of 28.4%. The wide spread of $135 suggests significant uncertainty about the company's future, likely due to the cyclical nature of construction and the potential impact of the Owens Corning acquisition. Recent ratings have been stable, with no major upgrades or downgrades in the past few months, though Truist Securities reiterated a Hold in July 2026. The high target of $475 likely assumes successful integration of Owens Corning and a recovery in end markets, while the low target reflects concerns about continued revenue decline and margin pressure.
Bulls vs Bears: CSL Investment Factors
Carlisle presents a mixed picture: strong profitability metrics (ROE 41.26%, operating margin 19.92%) and a reasonable valuation (forward PE 15.36x) are offset by declining revenue and margins. The bull case relies on a cyclical recovery and successful M&A, while the bear case focuses on continued demand weakness and margin pressure. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger due to the recent revenue decline and margin compression, but the stock's recovery from its low and analyst optimism provide a counterbalance. The key tension is whether the revenue decline is a temporary cyclical dip or a structural issue; resolution of this will determine the investment outcome.
Bullish
- Strong ROE and Operating Margin: Carlisle's return on equity is 41.26%, far exceeding the industry average, and its operating margin is 19.92%, indicating efficient capital use and cost control. These metrics suggest the company can generate high returns even in a cyclical downturn.
- Forward PE Implies Earnings Growth: The forward PE of 15.36x versus trailing PE of 18.52x implies the market expects ~20.6% earnings growth over the next year. Analysts estimate EPS of $30.85 for the next fiscal year, supporting a recovery thesis.
- Analyst Consensus Buy with 11.4% Upside: With 7 analysts, the consensus is 'buy' (mean rating 2.11) and the average target price is $412.14, implying 11.4% upside from the current price of $370.04. The high target of $475 suggests potential for 28.4% upside if the Owens Corning deal succeeds.
- Solid Liquidity and Cash Flow: The current ratio is 3.09, indicating strong short-term liquidity, and trailing twelve-month free cash flow is $924.8 million. This provides financial flexibility for M&A or shareholder returns.
Bearish
- Revenue Declining YoY: Q1 2026 revenue was $1,052.1 million, down 3.99% YoY, continuing a trend of deceleration from Q2 2025's $1,449.5 million. This indicates softening demand in the commercial construction market, which could pressure earnings.
- Margin Compression: Gross margin fell to 34.52% in Q1 2026 from 37.33% in Q1 2025, and net margin dropped to 12.14% from 17.65% in Q2 2025. This suggests higher input costs or pricing pressure, reducing profitability.
- High Debt-to-Equity Ratio: The debt-to-equity ratio is 1.60, which is relatively high, amplifying financial risk. If interest rates remain elevated, interest expenses could weigh on earnings.
- Underperformance vs. Market: Over the past year, CSL is down 5.41% while the S&P 500 is up 20.37%, resulting in a relative strength of -25.78%. This underperformance may persist if the cyclical downturn continues.
CSL Technical Analysis
Carlisle's stock is currently in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown, with the price at $370.04 as of August 14, 2026, reflecting a 1-year change of -5.41%. The stock is trading at approximately 85.5% of its 52-week range (low of $293.43, high of $432.91), suggesting it has recovered from the lows but remains below its highs. This positioning indicates a potential value opportunity if the recovery continues, but also highlights lingering uncertainty as the stock has not yet reclaimed its previous peak. The 52-week low was set in March 2026, and the subsequent rebound has been substantial, yet the stock remains 14.5% below its 52-week high.
Beta
0.84
0.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$293-$433
Price range past year
Annual Return
-5.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CSL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +4.4% | +4.0% |
| 3m | +10.8% | +5.3% |
| 6m | -11.1% | +12.6% |
| 1y | -5.4% | +20.1% |
| ytd | +9.8% | +13.3% |
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CSL Fundamental Analysis
Revenue for the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) was $1,052.1 million, a 3.99% decline year-over-year, continuing a trend of deceleration from Q2 2025's $1,449.5 million and Q3 2025's $1,346.9 million. The revenue decline is primarily driven by the Carlisle Construction Materials segment, which generated $758.1 million in the quarter, while Weatherproofing Technologies contributed $294.0 million. This downward trajectory suggests softening demand in the commercial construction market, which could pressure the investment case if not reversed. Net income for Q1 2026 was $127.7 million, with a net margin of 12.14%, down from 17.65% in Q2 2025, indicating margin compression. Gross margin also contracted to 34.52% from 37.33% in the year-ago quarter, reflecting higher input costs or pricing pressure. Despite the decline, the company remains profitable, with an operating margin of 17.14% in Q1 2026, though this is below the 23.11% seen in Q2 2025. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60, which is relatively high, but the current ratio of 3.09 indicates strong liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $924.8 million, though Q1 2026 saw negative free cash flow of -$73 million due to working capital changes. Return on equity is robust at 41.26%, reflecting efficient use of equity, but the high leverage amplifies financial risk.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-4.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
34.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$924800000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CSL Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive, the primary valuation metric selected is the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 18.52x, while the forward PE is 15.36x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 20.6% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about a recovery in profitability, which is supported by analyst estimates of EPS at $30.85 for the next fiscal year. Compared to the industry average, Carlisle's trailing PE of 18.52x is at a premium to the sector's average of 15x, representing a 23.5% premium. This premium may be justified by Carlisle's superior ROE of 41.26% and operating margin of 19.92%, which are above industry norms. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from a low of 6.61x in Q2 2024 to a high of 28.40x in Q1 2023, with the current 18.52x sitting near the middle of that band. This suggests the stock is neither deeply undervalued nor overvalued relative to its own history, but the forward PE indicates potential for multiple expansion if growth materializes.
PE
18.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 7x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60, which increases vulnerability to rising interest rates; interest expense was $28.3 million in Q1 2026. The company also experienced negative free cash flow of -$73 million in Q1 2026 due to working capital changes, though TTM FCF remains positive at $924.8 million. Margin compression is evident, with gross margin down to 34.52% from 37.33% a year ago, and net margin down to 12.14% from 17.65% in Q2 2025, indicating cost pressures that could persist. Revenue concentration in the commercial construction sector, with more than half of revenue from the U.S., exposes the company to regional economic downturns.