Carlisle Companies
CSL
$367.68
+2.83%
Carlisle Companies Inc. is a diversified manufacturer specializing in single-ply roofing systems, insulation, and building envelope solutions for the commercial construction industry, operating through its Carlisle Construction Materials and Carlisle Weatherproofing Technologies segments. As a market leader in the U.S. commercial roofing sector, Carlisle differentiates itself through its premium EPDM, TPO, and PVC membrane products and a 50-year streak of dividend increases, underscoring its financial stability and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic pivot toward higher-margin construction materials, its disciplined capital returns, and recent speculation of a potential acquisition of Owens Corning, which could reshape the competitive landscape. However, near-term concerns about demand softness in nonresidential construction and margin pressures from raw material costs have kept the stock's valuation in check, creating a debate between value-oriented and growth-focused investors.…
CSL
Carlisle Companies
$367.68
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy CSL Today?
We rate CSL as a Hold. The stock offers a compelling mix of profitability and dividend growth, but near-term revenue headwinds and valuation concerns limit upside. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $412.14, implying 12.1% upside, but the wide range ($340-$475) reflects uncertainty. Key supports include a 41.3% ROE, 19.9% operating margin, and 50-year dividend streak, while the negative PEG and revenue decline are red flags. This Hold could upgrade to Buy if revenue growth turns positive and the PEG ratio improves, or downgrade to Sell if the acquisition fails and margins compress. Overall, the stock is fairly valued relative to its history and peers, trading at a forward PE of 15.3x, which is reasonable given its defensive characteristics.
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CSL 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses CSL as neutral with medium confidence. The stock's valuation is reasonable, but the revenue decline and negative PEG ratio temper enthusiasm. The potential acquisition is a wildcard that could swing the thesis either way. If revenue growth resumes and margins hold, the stock could re-rate higher; conversely, continued weakness could lead to further downside. The stance would upgrade to bullish if revenue turns positive and the acquisition is confirmed, and downgrade to bearish if margins compress below 18% or the dividend streak is threatened.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Carlisle Companies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $412.14 and implied upside of +12.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$412.14
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+12.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$340 - $475
Analyst target range
The target range of $340 to $475 highlights significant uncertainty, with the high target assuming successful execution of growth initiatives and potential market share gains, while the low target prices in continued demand weakness and margin compression. Recent institutional actions show no major upgrades or downgrades, with Truist maintaining a Hold and Baird and Oppenheimer reiterating Outperform ratings, indicating stability in analyst views. The wide spread between low and high targets suggests that the market is uncertain about the trajectory of the construction cycle and the impact of potential acquisitions, which could lead to higher volatility in the stock.
Bulls vs Bears: CSL Investment Factors
Carlisle presents a mixed picture: strong profitability metrics and a stellar dividend history are offset by declining revenue and a leveraged balance sheet. The bull case hinges on a potential acquisition and margin resilience, while the bear case centers on cyclical demand weakness and valuation concerns. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger due to the persistent revenue decline and negative PEG, but the analyst consensus and potential catalysts provide a counterbalance. The key tension is whether the company can stabilize revenue and execute on growth initiatives, which would determine if the stock re-rates higher or continues to lag.
Bullish
- 50-Year Dividend Streak: Carlisle has increased its dividend for 50 consecutive years, a testament to its financial stability and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. This streak, highlighted in recent news, underscores a disciplined approach to returning capital, with a payout ratio of only 24.4% and a dividend yield of 1.32%.
- Strong ROE and Margins: The company boasts a return on equity of 41.3% and a net margin of 14.8%, indicating efficient capital utilization and profitability. Operating margin stands at 19.9%, reflecting pricing power and cost management despite revenue headwinds.
- Analyst Consensus Buy: With a consensus recommendation of 'buy' and an average target price of $412.14, analysts see significant upside of 12.1% from the current price of $367.68. The high target of $475 implies a potential gain of 29.2%, suggesting optimism about future growth.
- Potential Acquisition Catalyst: Reports of a potential buyout of Owens Corning could reshape the competitive landscape and drive synergies. If successful, this acquisition could expand Carlisle's market presence and enhance long-term growth prospects, acting as a significant catalyst.
Bearish
- Revenue Decline Persists: Revenue in Q1 2026 fell 3.99% year-over-year to $1.052 billion, continuing a multi-quarter downtrend from the $1.449 billion peak in Q2 2025. This indicates weakening demand in the commercial construction market, which could pressure earnings.
- Negative PEG Ratio: The PEG ratio of -0.48 reflects expected earnings decline, signaling that the stock may not be cheap on a growth-adjusted basis. This suggests that the market is pricing in deteriorating fundamentals, which could limit upside.
- High Debt-to-Equity: Debt-to-equity stands at 1.60, indicating a leveraged balance sheet. While manageable, this increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or cash flows weaken, potentially constraining capital returns.
- Underperformance vs. Market: Carlisle has underperformed the S&P 500 significantly over the past year, with a -3.65% return versus SPY's +20.48%. Relative strength over 1 year is -24.13%, indicating persistent weakness and potential investor skepticism.
CSL Technical Analysis
Carlisle's stock is currently in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown, with the price at $367.68 as of August 21, 2026, reflecting a 1-year change of -3.65% and a 6-month decline of -10.11%. The stock sits at 47.6% of its 52-week range (between $293.43 low and $432.91 high), indicating it has rebounded from the lows but remains well below its peak. This positioning suggests the market is cautiously optimistic, with the stock having recovered from a -32.11% maximum drawdown but still facing overhead resistance from the prior downtrend.
Beta
0.84
0.84x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$293-$433
Price range past year
Annual Return
-3.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | CSL Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +12.2% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +10.1% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -10.1% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -3.7% | +18.7% |
| ytd | +11.9% | +12.3% |
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CSL Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been under pressure, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $1.052 billion, a -3.99% year-over-year decline, and a sequential slowdown from Q4 2025's $1.128 billion. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue peaked at $1.449 billion in Q2 2025 and has since declined, indicating a decelerating growth trajectory. The Carlisle Construction Materials segment generated $758.1 million in revenue, while Weatherproofing Technologies contributed $294 million, with the construction materials segment driving the majority but also facing cyclical headwinds from softer commercial construction activity.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.1B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-4.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
34.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$924800000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is CSL Overvalued?
Given that net income is positive, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 18.52x, while the forward PE is 15.32x, implying the market expects earnings growth of approximately 20.9% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about margin recovery and cost controls, but the PEG ratio of -0.48 (negative due to expected earnings decline) indicates that growth expectations are not robust, and the stock may be fairly valued relative to its near-term earnings power.
PE
18.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 7x~28x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
12.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.60, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or earnings decline. The negative PEG ratio of -0.48 indicates that earnings are expected to fall, which could pressure the stock if the decline materializes. Additionally, the payout ratio of 24.4% is conservative, but a prolonged revenue downturn could force dividend cuts, breaking the 50-year streak and damaging investor confidence.
FAQ
The key risks for CSL include: 1) Financial risk from high debt-to-equity of 1.60, which could strain cash flows if interest rates rise or earnings decline. 2) Market risk from cyclicality in commercial construction, as evidenced by the -3.99% revenue decline in Q1 2026. 3) Competitive risk from potential disruption by new roofing technologies or cheaper alternatives. 4) Company-specific risk from the uncertain Owens Corning acquisition, which could fail or prove dilutive. The most severe risk is a prolonged downturn in nonresidential construction, which could push the stock to the 52-week low of $293.43, a -20.2% downside from current levels.
The 12-month forecast for CSL is mixed. In the base case (50% probability), the stock is expected to trade in the $380-$420 range, aligning with the analyst average target of $412.14. In the bull case (30% probability), a successful acquisition and market recovery could drive the stock to $430-$475, the high target. In the bear case (20% probability), continued weakness could push the stock down to $293-$340, near the 52-week low. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming revenue stabilizes and margins hold. Investors should watch for revenue growth and acquisition news as key indicators.
CSL is fairly valued relative to its history and peers. The trailing PE of 18.5x is in line with the market average, while the forward PE of 15.3x implies expected earnings growth of about 20.9%, which seems optimistic given the negative PEG. The PS ratio of 2.73x and EV/EBITDA of 12.6x are reasonable for a company with strong margins. Compared to the broader market, CSL trades at a slight discount, but the declining revenue and high debt-to-equity of 1.60 suggest the market is pricing in some risk. Overall, the stock is not a bargain, but it is not overvalued either, offering a fair entry point for patient investors.
CSL is a moderate buy for investors seeking a defensive, dividend-paying stock. The analyst consensus is 'buy' with an average target of $412.14, implying 12.1% upside from the current price of $367.68. However, the stock faces near-term revenue headwinds, with Q1 2026 revenue down 3.99% YoY, and the negative PEG ratio of -0.48 suggests limited growth. The 50-year dividend streak and strong ROE of 41.3% provide a safety net, but the potential acquisition of Owens Corning adds uncertainty. For long-term investors with a horizon of 3-5 years, CSL could be a good buy at current levels, but those seeking quick gains may be disappointed.
CSL is better suited for long-term investment due to its defensive characteristics, low beta of 0.843, and 50-year dividend growth streak. The stock offers a dividend yield of 1.32% and a payout ratio of 24.4%, providing income and stability. However, the current revenue decline and high debt-to-equity make it less attractive for short-term trading, as the stock could remain volatile. For long-term investors with a horizon of at least 3-5 years, CSL offers a solid total return potential, especially if the acquisition is successful and the construction cycle turns. Short-term traders may find better opportunities elsewhere due to the stock's underperformance relative to the market.